MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 29th Page Two
Miami at Atlanta
| Miami | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Tom Koehler | Vegas Moneyline | Ervin Santana | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-160) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.608 | 0.276 | 19.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 0.774 | 0.338 | 18.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.742 | 0.330 | 17.30% | SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.640 | 0.286 | 26.20% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP  | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tom Koehler – Koehler has a favorable matchup against the Braves (27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching), but that’s about all he has going for him tonight. He has not pitched well on the road this season with a 4.94 ERA. He also has an average K-rate and he walks more batters than you average starter. He’ll have a tough time picking up a win with Santana pitching opposite him and can be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6600 FD, $13100 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13100 FTD
- Ervin Santana – Santana is my 2nd favorite pitcher on the board tonight next to Felix Hernandez. He has really pitched well as a member of the Braves pitching staff this season. He owns a 3.61 ERA (3.30 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.2. He is producing a solid 44% ground ball rate and has managed to keep his HR’s allowed in check this season. He draws a terrific matchup against the Marlins who are ranked 22nd in road wOBA while striking out at a major-league high 25% clip. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $9000 FD, $18100 DD, $9800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $18100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Miami
You could make an argument for Christian Yelich for cash games or Giancarlo Stanton for GPP’s, but I think there are better options in their price range. Avoid all Marlins tonight against Santana.
Atlanta
Justin Upton – Upton is typically a better target when he is facing a LH pitcher, but i like this matchup for 2 reasons. First, he’s facing Koehler who is a reverse splits pitcher (.334 wOBA given up to RH hitters). Second, Upton is playing at home where he is batting .320 with a .464 wOBA this season.
Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman, Evan Gattis
Texas at Houston
| Texas | Houston | ||||||||
| Scott Baker | Vegas Moneyline | Brett Oberholtzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | HOU (-135) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.768 | 0.330 | 20.90% | SP vs. Left | 0.289 | 0.746 | 0.329 | 20.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.784 | 0.334 | 11.30% | SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.737 | 0.322 | 14.20% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Scott Baker – Baker is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. He has an average K/9 of 6.00 with a subpar ERA of 5.45. He does face a strikeout happy Astros offense, but the Astros have actually been hitting the ball pretty well recently. They are ranked 14th in wOBA over the last 30 days. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5100 FD, $7500 DD, $6400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $7500 FTD
- Brett Oberholtzer – Since the All-Star break, Obertholtzer has posted a 3.28 ERA with 28 K’s over 46 innings of work. While he hasn’t been an ace, he’s been a very serviceable starter. Tonight he faces a Rangers offense that does not scare anyone. Sure, they are ranked 7th in wOBA vs. LH pitching, but if he can get around Beltre and Rios, he shouldn’t have a problem with the rest of the lineup. All in all, he’s a slightly better option than other pitchers in his price range. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6200 FD, $10350 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10350 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Alex Rios – Rios is always in play when he is facing a lefty. His price is always extremely cheap on both FD and DK and he’s really hit southpaws well this season. He’s batting .324 with a .383 wOBA vs. lefties which isn’t half bad for a player at his price point.
Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre
Houston
Jose Altuve – I always love targeting Altuve in cash games because he has such a high floor. He rarely has games where he doesn’t reach base with at least 1 hit or a walk. He has pretty good power for a guy his size and we all know what he brings to the table in terms of speed. I think he steals his 50th base of the season tonight.
Additional Plays: Dexter Fowler, Chris Carter
Detroit at Chicago White Sox
| Detroit | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Justin Verlander | Vegas Moneyline | Scott Carroll | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-155) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.684 | 0.305 | 18.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.865 | 0.378 | 8.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.329 | 0.879 | 0.384 | 16.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.285 | 0.753 | 0.337 | 14.60% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Justin Verlander – Verlander will be on the mound tonight for the Tigers. He will look to bounce back after two subpar outings in a row. In his last two starts, he has given up 8 earned runs in less than 7 combined innings of work. That’s just not going to cut it if the Tigers are wanting to make a deep postseason run. While Verlander is a sizable favorite tonight, he’s too risky to use in cash games. The White Sox are ranked 11th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $12850 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12850 FTD
- Scott Carroll – I’m expecting this game to be a shootout. I don’t have confidence in either of these pitchers and these are two very capable offenses. Carroll owns a 5.05 ERA on the season and is only averaging 4.4 K’s per 9 innings. The Tigers should be able to put the ball in play tonight and good things typically happen for the Tigers when they do. As a team, they are ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5000 FD, $10550 DD, $5300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez – V-Mart should be locked in as the #1 option on sites that have him listed at catcher. He’s head and shoulders above the other catcher options as he has a great matchup against Carroll who has given up a .378 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate this season. In addition to a great matchup, you also get a hot bat as V-Mart has 13 hits and 12 RBI’s over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Jose, Jose, Jose! Abreu is my favorite play at any position tonight and should be targeted in ALL leagues. Not only does he have 2 HR’s off of Verlander this season, but he also has a great matchup in terms of handedness. Verlander has given up a .384 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Abreu has been mashing RH pitching with a .405 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Alexei Ramirez, Adam Eaton
Cleveland at Kansas City
| Cleveland | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Danny Salazar | Vegas Moneyline | Jason Vargas | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | KCR (-137) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.668 | 0.300 | 27.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.675 | 0.301 | 15.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.853 | 0.368 | 23.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.701 | 0.309 | 15.80% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Danny Salazar – Since the start of July, Salazar has posted a 3.27 ERA with 33 K’s over 33 innings of work. He’s always been a pitcher that can rack up the strikeouts, he just tends to struggle with his command at times. It’s always a little unnerving taking a fly-ball pitcher, but you shouldn’t have to worry about him giving up the long ball tonight as he’s facing a Royals offense that doesn’t hit many HR’s. He’s also facing them in a tough ballpark to hit HR’s in. Salazar makes a great tournament play tonight. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13850 DD, $7300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13850 FTD
- Jason Vargas – Vargas is one of those pitchers that rarely catches my attention. While he does have a solid 3.17 ERA, he isn’t a high strikeout pitcher by any means. He’s only averaging 5.9 K’s per 9 innings which limits his upside. It also makes it hard for him to overcome the outings where he does give up a few earned runs. The matchup against the Indians is favorable as they have struggled as a team against LH pitching, but I don’t think Vargas will make any of my rosters tonight. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $12400 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12400 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Jose Ramirez – If you need a cheap value play to fill out your lineup tonight, take a look at Mr. Ramirez. He has 13 hits over his last 10 games and is still close to minimum salary on both FD and DK. He’ll likely be batting in the 2-hole tonight against the lefty Vargas.
Additional Plays: Carlos Santana
Kansas City
Salvador Perez – Salazar has had some serious reverse splits this season. He has given up a .368 wOBA to RH hitters while holding lefties to a .300 wOBA. That bodes well for Perez who is still massively under-priced on FD.
Additional Plays: Billy Butler
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Kyle Hendricks | Vegas Moneyline | Shelby Miller | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-150) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.609 | 0.269 | 16.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.745 | 0.329 | 14.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.554 | 0.247 | 15.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.730 | 0.325 | 17.00% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks is quietly having a nice rookie season. Through his first 8 big-league starts, he has a 1.78 ERA (3.81 xFIP) with a K/9 of 5.5. I expect his strikeout rate to go up as he gets more starts under his belt as he averaged over 8 K’s per 9 this season at the Triple-A level. That said, I think he’s a bit overpriced for his matchup against the Cardinals tonight. The Cardinals have quite a few hitters in their lineup that really hit RH pitching well. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $14450 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14450 FTD
- Shelby Miller – Miller has been very consistent this season. The problem is that he’s been consistently bad. He has posted an ERA over 4.30 in every month since the start of May. He gives up way too many walks (4.1 per 9 innings) for my liking and he has given up a .325+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate. If Anthony Rizzo is still out, he will see a small boost, but I like to target pitchers that are trending upwards. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $5400 FD, $11150 DD, $6100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Jorge Soler – Buy in on Soler before his price skyrockets. Soler is one of the Cubs top prospects. He hit .338 with 14 HR’s in 61 games in the minors this season and so far he hasn’t been phased at all by the bright lights of the big leagues. He homered in his MLB debut and following it up by going 2/4 and an RBI in his 2nd game.
Additional Plays: Chris Coghlan
St. Louis
Matt Adams – Once again, Adams is in play against an average RH pitcher. Adams bad splits against LH pitching always drive his price down so he’s typically a great value play when he faces a righty. This season Adams is batting .327 with a .375 wOBA against RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta