MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 18th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2016-09-19 01:01:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Detroit at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Detroit					Cleveland
			Daniel Norris					Trevor Bauer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -135					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.356	2	28.6%	31.2%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.305	7	37.1%	23.7%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.339	6	31.2%	19.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.297	10	27.6%	17.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Norris
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$5,900
					FPPG:		24.3	FPPG:		12.5
					Pitcher Rating:		46.4	Pitcher Rank:		23
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	93.4	4.65	3.90	17.4%	8.3%	10.1%	46.7%	32.2%	34.4%
2016	9	85.8	4.36	3.94	19.8%	7.4%	8.9%	41.5%	36.7%	30.6%
2015	13	79.6	4.45	3.75	17.9%	7.6%	9.2%	39.3%	43.2%	28.7%

Daniel Norris: He is coming off of a fantastic game against the Twins, where he struck out eleven batters and allowed just two earned runs. Today will be a more difficult task against an Indians team that continues to hit the ball well, and although lefties have been more successful against them a word of caution for those chasing that last start by Norris.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.01 — K%: 18.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.365
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.08 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303

Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		26.8	FPPG:		13.7
					Pitcher Rating:		64.3	Pitcher Rank:		13
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	99.0	4.40	3.83	18.6%	7.5%	7.7%	47.5%	33.1%	32.2%
2016	24	112.7	4.37	3.86	20.1%	9.0%	8.8%	48.0%	32.4%	32.9%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

Trevor Bauer: Bauer is far too inconsistent for my liking, and while he does possess some strikeout upside, you really cannot count on him to hold the opposition to just a couple runs. It is a bit unusual in that pitching is extremely weak overall for a full Sunday slate, so we can look his way in tournaments but even then I do not want too much exposure.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.03 — K%: 21.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.23 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Tigers: Same story, different day. The Tigers have one of the better top halves of a lineup in the league but get little to no help from the bottom, which just crushes their momentum. Bauer is inconsistent enough that I do not mind plugging a few Detroit players in our lineups today.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (8 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (14 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (19 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (15 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.57 (13 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.29 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez , J.D. Martinez , Ian Kinsler

Stackability – Yellow

Cleveland

Indians: With a southpaw on the mound, the Indians are not as big of a threat, but they are a threat nonetheless. It is hard to count out this team, as they continue to be better than most expected. Rajai Davis is a guy who pops up on my radar every time he faces a southpaw, and we obviously have Napoli in the heart of the order, who can send a couple deep in a hurry.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.322 (15 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.323 (15 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (23 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.5% (10 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.89 (13 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.93 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.71 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Rajai Davis

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli , Brandon Guyer , Jose Ramirez

Stackability – Orange

Minnesota at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Minnesota					NY Mets
			Kyle Gibson					Gabriel Ynoa
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -185					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.387	9	33.0%	13.8%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.306	0	16.7%	12.5%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.320	10	29.1%	17.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.458	0	28.6%	14.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		23.3	FPPG:		10.5
					Pitcher Rating:		43.8	Pitcher Rank:		26
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	101.4	5.04	6.10	15.2%	9.4%	9.5%	45.1%	29.4%	39.4%
2016	21	98.5	4.73	5.34	15.8%	8.3%	9.6%	49.3%	28.6%	31.1%
2015	32	101.1	4.12	3.84	17.7%	7.9%	9.8%	53.4%	26.8%	27.7%

Kyle Gibson: In his last outing, he pitched a gem going eight innings and allowing just one run on five hits. He only struck out four Tigers in that game but still managed a pretty good fantasy day consider his price point. The Mets are a team I do not mind picking on, but Gibson is not necessarily a guy we can trust either. Even with the weaker pitchers pool, I think it is best to look elsewhere.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.28 — K%: 17.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.58 — K%: 15.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.322

Gabriel Ynoa
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		2.2	FPPG:		-0.4
					Pitcher Rating:		71.4	Pitcher Rank:		10
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	0	0.0	4.97	18.90	16.7%	11.1%	14.3%	33.3%	41.7%	25.0%
2016	0	0.0	4.97	18.90	16.7%	11.1%	14.3%	33.3%	41.7%	25.0%

Gabriel Ynoa: We are getting Ynoa’s first career start today because deGrom has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a right elbow issue. There is not a ton of information to go by with Yno,a but what we do have has not been good. I never like to take a guy in his first start unless he has been lights out immediately before going into that situation, so he is a complete fade for me.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 25.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.219
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 40.50 — K%: 10.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.630

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Twins: The Minnesota Brian Doziers have been pretty blah in their two through nine spots lately, and as such I do not have a ton of interest.

• Twins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (12 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.320 (18 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (22 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (5 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.58 (11 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.51 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler , Kennys Vargas

Stackability – Red

NY Mets

Mets: New York has been hitting the ball pretty well over the past thirty days as you can see, ranking sixth in wOBA during that span. Not only that, but the heart of the order have a very solid ISO combination, making them a high-upside group against Gibson today.

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (24 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.335 (6 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (20 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (8 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.97 (27 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.49 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes , Jay Bruce , Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – Orange

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh					Cincinnati
			Ivan Nova					Dan Straily
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -120					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.350	10	37.4%	14.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.300	10	28.8%	17.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.305	13	31.6%	22.8%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.305	17	35.2%	22.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		25.7	FPPG:		13.1
					Pitcher Rating:		75.3	Pitcher Rank:		6
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	79.8	3.26	2.38	19.5%	1.6%	8.8%	58.3%	26.0%	28.0%
2016	22	92.5	3.91	4.13	17.9%	4.5%	9.0%	53.1%	28.7%	35.0%
2015	17	89.9	4.58	5.07	15.3%	8.0%	7.8%	49.0%	31.7%	32.3%

Ivan Nova: It seems like not many of the pitching changes this season are working out, but Nova is a clear exception to that. He has not started eight games for Pittsburgh, picking up five wins and striking out 43 batters over fifty-two-and-one-thirds innings. Typically Great American Ball Park is one that I avoid if possible, but with the lack of pitching depth, Nova comes in as one of our best options on the day.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.07 — K%: 16.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.318
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.03 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.356

Dan Straily
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		63.9	Pitcher Rank:		14
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	89.0	4.33	4.40	23.0%	9.4%	11.2%	32.6%	43.5%	34.8%
2016	27	98.8	4.72	3.88	20.0%	9.4%	9.8%	32.3%	46.0%	32.3%
2015	3	97.0	4.67	5.40	18.4%	10.5%	9.6%	41.5%	37.7%	28.3%

Dan Straily: We have seen some pretty solid performances from Straily over the course of the season, but the problem is that his strikeout numbers are extremely volatile causing making it hard to lean on him for consistent points from that category. He is coming off of his best game of the season against the Brewers in which he completed eight innings striking out eight in the process. On the season, he has faced this Pirates squad twice with similar results each time with the win being important in his first matchup with them. Overall, he is in play, but I would prefer Nova of the two, as his upside and recent form seems more in line with what we are looking for.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.80 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.13 — K%: 20.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Pirates: Generally I want a good amount of hitters when the Reds are at home, but this game features two pitchers I expect to control the runs quite well. With that said, it is a hitter’s park, and we can take a look at a couple of bats here.

• Pirates Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.312 (24 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (27 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (13 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (4 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.44 (18 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.37 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jung Ho Kang , Gregory Polanco , Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – Orange

Cincinnati

Reds: Nova is one of my favorite pitchers on the day, and as such, it stands to reason that I do not like a ton of Reds here today. As is often the case, Votto comes up as one of the best options at his position, but outside of that we have limited options.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.332 (9 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (20 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.9% (15 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.79 (27 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.41 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.13 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler

Stackability – Red

Miami at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Miami					Philadelphia
			Andrew Cashner					Alec Asher
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -100					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.375	9	41.1%	19.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.298	0	26.3%	8.7%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.339	7	30.0%	17.6%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.125	0	26.3%	8.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		20.3	FPPG:		9.4
					Pitcher Rating:		63.5	Pitcher Rank:		15
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	4	98.8	4.98	3.38	21.1%	14.7%	8.4%	52.5%	23.7%	41.0%
2016	23	89.7	4.61	4.77	19.2%	9.7%	7.6%	48.0%	32.4%	35.8%
2015	31	100.3	4.00	4.34	20.5%	8.2%	8.2%	47.4%	29.9%	30.2%

Andrew Cashner: Chasing the ghost of Cashner past can be a tricky thing and something I do not suggest even against the Phillies. He is walking far too many batters, and the results simply are nowhere near good enough for us to feel confident rolling him out there in our lineups. If you have been playing fantasy baseball long enough then you probably struggle with understanding how guys like this turn out to be so bad so quickly after holding decent fantasy value for some time. You should have been fading him pretty much the entire season, and that is not going to change for me today.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.57 — K%: 23.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.323
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.45 — K%: 17.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.358

Alec Asher
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		27.5	FPPG:		14.9
					Pitcher Rating:		26.6	Pitcher Rank:		29
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	1	75.0	8.01	0.00	0.0%	4.6%	2.7%	20.0%	55.0%	28.6%
2016	1	75.0	8.01	0.00	0.0%	4.6%	2.7%	20.0%	55.0%	28.6%
2015	7	71.6	5.34	9.31	11.6%	7.3%	7.8%	36.1%	45.4%	32.4%

Alec Asher: You down PEDs? Yeah you know me! -Alec Asher probably. Okay, enough with the nonsense. It has been a pretty successful comeback for Asher after being held out of the game for his PED use, as he’s pitched twelve-and-one-third of an inning in his two starts and limited the opposition to just two runs. The problem is that he only has four strikeouts in that period and all came in the second game against the Pirates. I think he holds the Marlins in check here today, but with such limited strikeout upside, it is hard to get too excited.

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 10.80 — K%: 11.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.497
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.32 — K%: 8.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.257

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Marlins: Who are we to trust in this Marlins lineup outside of Christian Yelich, who has been pretty consistent all season long. Asher has been solid in his return, and I simply do not like playing too many Marlins.

• Marlins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (21 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.284 (29 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.131 (29 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (5 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (25 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.09 (26 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.51 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich , Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – Red

Philadelphia

Phillies: Andrew Cashner is bad enough to get me to consider using some Phillies today. I do not know that a stack is necessary, but we can plug in a few players here and there if you are looking for some cheap bats.

• Phillies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.296 (29 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.285 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (19 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (25 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.81 (26 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.65 (30 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.49 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez , Roman Quinn , Odubel Herrera

Stackability – Orange

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