2024 CFP National Championship Prediction: Washington vs. Michigan Odds & Pick
Nick Galaida breaks down his National Championship prediction for Washington vs. Michigan ahead of Monday night’s title game.
Washington vs. Michigan Odds
| Washington Odds | +4.5 |
| Michigan Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 56.5 |
| Date | Mon, Jan. 8 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
On Monday night, the No. 1-ranked Michigan Wolverines and No. 2-ranked Washington Huskies will meet in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. Michigan pulled off a thrilling comeback win against Alabama in the semi-finals to keep their perfect season alive, while Washington dominated from start to finish against Texas in an underdog role.
Since College Football transitioned to the playoff format in 2015, this is the first time that two undefeated teams have met in the National Championship. Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Michigan as 4.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 56.5 points.
In our Washington vs. Michigan betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams and make a prediction for the game.
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Washington
Michael Penix Jr. hoping to continue Cinderella run
There have been few players in college football this season more impactful than Michael Penix Jr., who has thrown for 4,648 yards and posted a 35-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, there are legitimate questions about how well Penix Jr. will be able to handle Michigan’s defense on Monday night. This year, Penix Jr. has been pressured on only 26.1% of his dropbacks, meaning that he has frequently been able to make throws from a clean pocket.
According to PFF, he owns a 73.6% completion rate and a 30-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket this year, compared to a 45.1% completion rate and a 5-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under duress. Michigan’s defense ranks 4th-best in the country in pass-rush grade through 14 games this fall, making this a tough challenge for Washington’s pass-heavy offense.
The larger question for the Washington offense will be how well they are able to run the football with star running back Dillon Johnson unavailable due to a foot injury.
Washington defense trying to prove doubters wrong
Heading into the season finale, much of the discourse surrounding this game has been centered on how overmatched Washington’s defense will be against Michigan’s offense. The comments are not completely without merit, considering that Washington ranked 72nd in run defense grade this season, per PFF, and 104th in tackling grade.
Leading by double-digits in the 4th quarter against Texas, Washington’s defense somehow allowed the Longhorns multiple opportunities near the goal line on their final drive in what would have been among the most improbable comebacks in College Football history had they pulled it off.
Texas ran for 180 yards on only 28 carries in the Sugar Bowl against Washington. Michigan is likely to hand star running back Blake Corum no fewer than 20 carries in a neutral game script tomorrow evening, which could make it very difficult for Washington’s defense to consistently get off of the field on 3rd down.
Michigan Wolverines
Is JJ McCarthy good enough to finish perfect season for Wolverines?
JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions against Bowling Green back in September but has been otherwise excellent in taking care of the football in 2023, with a 19-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in all of his other games. Still, it is fair to question just how good McCarthy is as a signal caller, considering his underwhelming production across the last month.
McCarthy had only 8 pass attempts in a 24-15 victory over No. 10 Penn State in early November, followed by only 141 passing yards against unranked Maryland, 148 passing yards against No. 2-ranked Ohio State, and 147 passing yards against No. 16-ranked Iowa to conclude the regular season. Facing Alabama in the Rose Bowl, McCarthy had 3 passing touchdowns and 221 passing yards, but he had 60 of those passing yards on the final drive of regulation against an irresponsibly soft coverage from the Crimson Tide.
Washington has been underwhelming overall on the defensive side of the ball this season, but they have been better against the pass than they have been against the run. We are likely to see another underwhelming showing from McCarthy to finish the year.
What to expect from Michigan defense
Michigan’s defense has been the backbone of their undefeated season to date. They have held No. 4-ranked Alabama to 20 points, No. 16-ranked Iowa scoreless, No. 2-ranked Ohio State to 24 points, No. 10-ranked Penn State to 15 points, and 8 different non-ranked opponents to 10 points or fewer in 2023.
Still, Washington might be their toughest test yet. The Huskies have scored fewer than 31 points only 3 times this fall. They scored 41 points or more 6 times thanks to an elite passing attack that features arguably the best quarterback in the nation. The key to getting stops on Monday will be getting pressure on Penix Jr., who has rarely been under duress this year, playing against a collection of weaker defenses out west.
Washington vs. Michigan – Picks & Predictions
Washington’s games have routinely gone over this market number this season, but that is primarily due to the fact that they have blown out the majority of opponents on their schedule. When teams have been able to get pressure on Penix Jr., they have been able to keep games relatively competitive and the scoring relatively low.
Michigan has one of the best pass rushes in the nation, which should allow them to keep Washington’s offensive production to a minimum on Monday. Dillon Johnson not being healthy heading into the National Championship is only likely to further hinder Washington’s offensive capabilities.
If the Huskies can keep Blake Corum from back-breaking long runs in this matchup, we could be in store for a relatively low-scoring season finale in College Football.
PICK: Under 56.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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