New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever Odds, Prediction, and Betting Tips
New York vs. Indiana Odds
| New York Odds | -8.5 |
| Indiana Odds | +8.5 |
| Over/Under | 169.5 |
| Date | Thursday, May 16 |
| Time | 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
This evening’s WNBA slate features only one game, but it should be a good one, with the New York Liberty traveling to face Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of the action this evening, New York is listed as an 8.5-point favorite. The total is set at over/under 169.5 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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On Tuesday night, New York won their season opener, with an 85-80 victory against Washington on the road. Indiana lost 92-71 to Connecticut in their first game of the new campaign.
New York Liberty
Liberty with unfinished business
New York fell just short of their ultimate goal in 2023, losing to Las Vegas 3-1 in the WNBA Finals. However, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this group heading into 2024, coming off of an outstanding year.
In their season opener on Tuesday, the Liberty won 85-80 on the road. The team had three different players score 15+ points, which didn’t include Breanna Stewart, who averaged 23 points per game last season.
New York’s offense ranked 2nd in the league in 2023 in eFG% and TS%. They can beat their opponents in a number of different ways and are well-positioned to have a strong showing tonight against a weak Indiana defense.
Jonquel Jones making a big impact early for New York
On opening night, Jonquel Jones scored 25 points and secured 8 rebounds in a winning effort. Her impressive showing was simply a continuation of where she ended last season, after averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds per game during the postseason.
Last season, Jones saw her role grow with New York as the season progressed, to the point that she was entrusted with 30+ minutes of playing time in each of the team’s playoff games. She should have every opportunity to dominate again on Thursday in a favorable matchup.
Indiana Fever
What to expect from Caitlin Clark on Thursday against New York
Caitlin Clark was front-and-center earlier this year playing for Iowa as women’s basketball gained tremendous momentum in the national media. As a result, many people have had extremely strong opinions all summer about what she can and can’t do on a basketball court. The arrival of the new WNBA regular season is finally giving Clark a chance to let her production speak for itself.
In her WNBA debut on Tuesday, there were some good things – 4 made 3-pointers and a team-leading 20 points against a tough Connecticut defense. However, there were also some major red flags, including 10 turnovers and shooting only 33.3% from the field.
She gets another tough test on Thursday against New York, who finished 2023 ranked 3rd in defensive rating. The one thing that seems immediately obvious to anyone who watches Clark is that she’s very inexperienced playing in a true system. At Iowa, she was often given space to create for herself and make decisions on the fly. Her turnover issues are likely just growing pains as she gets acclimated to playing with and against more talented players. Clark is supremely talented, but she doesn’t appear ready to immediately assert herself as one of the best players in the league, like many people thought would happen.
Ball security problem?
In 2023, only Seattle and Phoenix had a higher turnover rate than Indiana. Teams have only played one game each to begin 2024, but Indiana enters play on Thursday with the worst turnover rate in the entire WNBA.
The Fever have no shortage of capable scorers, both in the frontcourt and backcourt, but poor ball movement and a lack of team chemistry certainly appeared to be an issue earlier this week in their season opener. As long as Indiana is turning the ball over at such a high rate, they are going to struggle to run an efficient offense, even with improved shot-making with Clark in the mix.
New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever Prediction
UNDER 169.5 (-115), BetMGM
New York and Washington combined for 165 points on Tuesday, while Indiana and Connecticut combined for 163 points. Though it’s obviously unwise to use single-game point totals to inform decision-making, it seems more probable than not that these two teams are going to find themselves in a lot of lower-scoring affairs this season.
Last season, New York was middle of the pack in turnover rate, relying on good ball movement and good shot selection to score efficiently. In their 2024 opener, they committed 20 turnovers. Indiana finished 10th out of 12 teams last season in AST/TO ratio and appears headed for another similar outcome in 2024. Indiana turned the ball over 25 times against Connecticut earlier in the week, with only 16 assists. Thus, even though they shot 48% from the field and 40% from 3-point territory, they scored only 71 points.
These are two teams likely to play at a slower pace this season. If turnovers continue to be an issue, the under should have a good chance to hit here.
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