MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 31st Page Two
Philadelphia at Washington
| Philadelphia | Washington | ||||||||
| Cliff Lee | Vegas Moneyline | Gio Gonzalez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | WAS (-150) | LEFT | 7 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.540 | 0.246 | 21.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.595 | 0.266 | 27.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.708 | 0.308 | 24.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.683 | 0.306 | 23.10% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP  | PHI vs L | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Cliff Lee – Lee has not been sharp in his first two starts back from injury. He’s posted a 7.59 ERA while giving up a .420 batting average over that stretch. I expect him to round into form soon, but will not be paying up for him until he does. The Nationals are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and run support will be hard to come by with Gonzalez on the mound for the Nats. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8700 FD, $15650 DD, $8400 DK, $80300 FF, $25800 SS, $15650 FTD
- Gio Gonzalez – Gonzalez gives up a lot of walks (3.6 per 9 innings), but that’s about his only flaw. He’s held batters under a .220 batting average this season and is striking out 9.4 batters per 9 innings. Gonzalez has a ballpark boost tonight as Nationals Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly environments in baseball. He also has a nice matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 22nd against LH pitching this season. If you don’t want to pay up for Kershaw, take the discount and take Gio. Rating = 9
Salaries: $9000 FD, $ DS, $16200 DD, $10100 DK, $97000 FF, $27400 SS, $16200 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
I’ll be avoiding all Phillies tonight against Gonzalez. Marlon Byrd has hit LH pitching well this season, but has struggled vs. Gio in the past.
Additional Plays:
Washington
Jayson Werth – Lee has been very hittable this season, especially by RH hitters. Lee is giving up a .360 wOBA to righties and Werth has a nice track record against him. In his career, he’s 11/30 with 4 XBH’s off of Lee.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos
Cincinnati at Miami
| Cincinnati | Miami | ||||||||
| Johnny Cueto | Vegas Moneyline | Tom Koehler | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-120) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.198 | 0.557 | 0.253 | 23.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.655 | 0.296 | 16.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.181 | 0.556 | 0.250 | 25.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.773 | 0.338 | 17.00% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Johnny Cueto – Cueto may fly under the radar tonight with Kershaw and Gonzalez both in favorable matchups at home. Cueto is coming off of a terrific outing against the Nationals and now gets to face a strikeout happy Marlins team in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Cueto has a 2.08 ERA (3.08 xFIP) to go with his K/9 of 9.1. I LOVE his price on DK tonight. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $10300 FD, $19000 DD, $9300 DK, $140600 FF, $30400 SS, $19000 FTD
- Tom Koehler – Koehler is in play tonight for two reasons. First, he’s pitching at home where he has posted a 2.75 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 6.3. Second, is his matchup against a depleted Reds offense. The Reds have been struggling to score runs without Votto and Phillips and Koehler benefits with both of them still out. His price is fair and I think he is in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6300 FD, $13250 DD, $6400 DK, $64300 FF, $17500 SS, $13250 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier – Koehler has some serious reverse splits. He’s given up a .331 wOBA to RH hitters this season compared to only a .273 wOBA to LH hitters. Frazier appears to have come out of his slump and offers a nice combination of both speed and power.
Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton
Miami
Avoid all Marlins tonight against Cueto. Since the start of 2013, he’s held both LH and RH hitters under a .255 wOBA and I’m expecting a dominant performance from him tonight at Marlins Park.
Toronto at Houston
| Toronto | Houston | ||||||||
| Drew Hutchison | Vegas Moneyline | Jarred Cosart | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-130) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.771 | 0.338 | 18.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.638 | 0.294 | 17.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.694 | 0.308 | 24.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.741 | 0.328 | 10.50% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Drew Hutchison – The Astros offense is coming off of a big series against the A’s and Hutchison’s numbers don’t look great on paper. I have a feeling that he’s going to have a very low ownership % tonight which makes him a perfect GPP play. Hutchison’s biggest weakness this season has been the Rogers Centre. In starts away from home, he’s posted a 2.95 ERA with a K/9 of 7.7. Tonight he faces the Astros who strikeout at 23.9% clip against RH pitching which is the 2nd highest in baseball. Rating = 6
Salaries: $5800 FD, $11600 DD, $6500 DK, $64300 FF, $18200 SS, $11600 FTD
- Jarred Cosart – The main stat that jumps out to me with Cosart is that he’s only striking out 5.8 batters per 9 innings while giving up 3.9 walks per 9 innings. He does produce an impressive 56% ground ball rate, but is handing out too many free base passes. He also has an extremely tough matchup against the Blue Jays who are ranked 1st in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6000 FD, $11100 DD, $5200 DK, $53000 FF, $14300 SS, $11100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Dioner Navarro – Navarro has excelled in the clean-up spot this season. He’s been swinging a hot bat with 17 hits over his last 10 games and his price has yet to reflect his recent production. I like the matchup against Cosart who hasn’t been great vs. LH hitters.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista
Houston
Jose Altuve – Altuve is batting .342 this season with 40 stolen bases. He’s as consistent of an option at 2B as you are going to find in daily fantasy baseball. Tonight he faces Hutchison who has already given up 18 stolen bases this season which is the 2nd most of any pitcher in baseball.
Additional Plays: Jon Singleton
Minnesota at Kansas City
| Minnesota | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Kevin Correia | Vegas Moneyline | Yordano Ventura | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | KCR (-180) | RIGHT | 8 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.800 | 0.351 | 11.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.683 | 0.304 | 19.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.297 | 0.800 | 0.348 | 12.30% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.749 | 0.331 | 19.50% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kevin Correia – Correia’s ERA (5.06) is higher than his K/9 (4.1). I could end my analysis right there, but I might as well keep going because I have a lot of space to work with. Correia has given up a .348+ wOBA to both LH and RH hitters this season and is facing a Royals team that strikes out less than any team in baseball. He has extremely limited upside tonight. Rating = 2
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9350 DD, $5100 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $9350 FTD
- Yordano Ventura – Ventura has been up and down all season. He had a great start to the season, a mediocre month of May, a great month of June, and now another mediocre month in July. He has a decent K/9 of 7.50, but is facing a very patient Twins offense that averages the 2nd most pitches per plate appearance in the American League. He should see some run support, but he doesn’t stand out as a top play tonight. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7000 FD, $13700 DD, $6400 DK, $76800 FF, $17700 SS, $13700 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Josh Willingham – Ventura has been a reverse splits pitcher this season as he’s given up a .334 wOBA to RH hitters while holding lefties to a .303 wOBA. Willingham had a nice game last night and has nice power against RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Brian Dozier
Kansas City
Alex Gordon – As mentioned above, Correia struggles vs. both LH and RH pitching. Gordon is arguably the Royals best hitter and is my top play here. He has a .350 wOBA vs. RH pitching and should see plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.
Additional Plays: Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas
Pittsburgh at Arizona
| Pittsburgh | Arizona | ||||||||
| Jeff Locke | Vegas Moneyline | Josh Collmenter | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | PIT (-116) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.679 | 0.308 | 10.90% | SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.740 | 0.324 | 17.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.689 | 0.304 | 19.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.682 | 0.297 | 19.30% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeff Locke – Locke has pitched well this season. He has a 3.54 ERA (3.51 xFIP) with a K/9 of 5.8. I’m not a huge fan of the matchup against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field though. Even though the D-Backs are right around the league average in wOBA vs. LH pitching, they have Paul Goldschmidt who can ruin a pitcher’s outing with a single swing of his bat. I’m predicting a big night from Goldy which could spell trouble for Locke. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $13000 DD, $6700 DK, $84500 FF, $18600 SS, $13000 FTD
- Josh Collmenter – Collmenter has some glaring home/road splits this season. His road ERA is nearly double that of his ERA at home. Collmenter has a 2.94 ERA at Chase Field this season while holding batters to a .219 batting average. That said, he’s never a popular target in DFS and it’s not going to hurt you to avoid him tonight against a red hot Pirates offense. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6600 FD, $10700 DD, $6500 DK, $68500 FF, $16400 SS, $10700 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – Most of Walker’s power comes when he is batting from the left side of the plate. He has a .360 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and gets to face Collmenter in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.
Additional Plays: Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy is my favorite play at any position tonight. He has a .475 wOBA vs. southpaws this season and a .419 wOBA at home. He’s also 4/6 off of Locke in his career.
Additional Plays: Aaron Hill, Mark Trumbo, Martin Prado