Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 7

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-10-19 17:16:16

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.

I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

Last week the picks did well. They were headlined by Torrey Smith, Jordan Cameron, and Ronnie Hillman among others. Hopefully you were not burned by Matt Ryan and Wes Welker like I was on most of my teams. Another lesson learned – don’t overexpose yourself to your favorite plays. The football is oblong and doesn’t always bounce the same way each week.

Here are the picks this week:

QB Matthew Stafford – Lions vs NO

Does Calvin Johnson make Matthew Stafford a better quarterback? Of course he does. Does he go into the fetal position when Johnson isn’t available? No. Most fantasy players will look to Stafford’s sub 15 point fantasy outputs in the last two weeks and write him off entirely. We can make a case why he struggled though. Two weeks ago, Jim Schwartz crafted a defensive game plan for Buffalo to stop the quarterback he knew so well sans Mr. Johnson. He was carried off the field for his efforts. Last week the Lions had no reason to open up the throttle, yet the Lions’ offensive line gave up five sacks.

There is an off-chance that Megatron plays this weekend; however, that is looking doubtful.

That will leave Stafford as one of the lowest owned quarterbacks this weekend – yet he still has a chance to reach tournament value (3X or 4X) across the industry. That is predicated on the pitiful New Orleans defense more than anything. The Saints have allowed an average of 273.2 yards (122.2 yards after the catch), 1.8 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions through five games. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is bringing pressure often (QB pressure on 37% of defensive plays) that hasn’t materialized into success or turnovers. Ryan’s defense is averaging a lone sack and three quarterback hits per week. Even with the Lions’ struggles on the offensive line – Stafford should have no problem spreading the ball around. Golden Tate has proven to be an adequate lead receiver but Stafford’s big day hinges on a player like Jeremy Ross using his 4.49 speed to get behind Keenan Lewis (PFF’s 85th ranked cornerback). The running backs will be heavily relied upon with screen plays to counter the aggressive nature of the Saints defense. The Saints struggle on the road, but if they do keep the game close, Detroit will be forced to throw the ball to keep pace.

Stafford is a long-shot to finish as the top scoring quarterback this weekend but his salary cap savings allows you multiple options to optimize your roster.

Matthew Stafford Projection

Att: 35.4
Comp: 23.4
Yards: 308.4
PTD: 2.4
Int: 0.9
RYards: 3.4
RTD: 0.1

QB Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers vs HOU

Like Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger has struggled the past two weeks. According to head coach Mike Tomlin – Roethlisberger has attempted to put the team on his shoulders because of the rash of injuries to their defense. The Texans defense (even with the possible return of Jadeveon Clowney) could cure what ails Big Ben.

Everyone knows that J.J. Watt isn’t human and is a large reason that Houston has recent success in disrupting opposing passers. In their last three games, the Texans have pressured the quarterback on 39 percent of their defensive snaps with an average of 2.3 sacks, 2 hits and 13 hurries. Adding Clowney back into the fold for the first time since Week 1 could be damaging to Pittsburgh. That doesn’t help that in that same three game stretch that Houston has been burned through the air with an average of 306 yards (133 YAC) and 2.3 touchdowns.

It looks like rookie Martavis Bryant will make his debut. The Steelers could use his 6-foot-4 frame in the red zone immediately. PlayerProfiler.com likens Bryant to Sidney Rice as a comparable player from a measurables perspective.

Some places across the industry have dropped Roethlisberger’s price dramatically and he becomes an intriguing tournament option when paired with his stud receiver Antonio Brown. One final note: Pittsburgh is 7-0 on Monday Night Football at home since 2001.

Ben Roethlisberger Projection

Att: 38.6
Comp: 24.3
Yards: 273.6
PTD: 2.2
Int: 0.9
RYards: 4.1
RTD: 0.0

RB Jamaal Charles – Chiefs at SD

In the world of “What have you done for me lately”, Jamaal Charles has been out of sight and out of mind for most daily players. The Chiefs were on bye week last week and the week prior he totaled just 81 yards on 16 touches.

The Chargers have been a middle of the pack defense against running backs this year. They have allowed just an average of 81 yards rushing and 0.33 touchdowns per week. They have displayed signs of winding down possibly. Last week, Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to rush 19 times for 112 yards in a losing effort.

If you want to take a trip down Narrative Street – Charles only needs 53 yards rushing to surpass the great Priest Holmes as the Chiefs’ all-time rushing leader. We should see what a healthy Charles can do with more touches and targets in a game that could be a constant back and forth for the lead.

Jamaal Charles Projection

Car: 24.0
Yards: 119.3
TD: 0.6
Rec: 5.1
ReYards: 40.3
ReTD: 0.3

RB Ben Tate – Browns at JAX

It isn’t time to crown Isaiah Crowell as the lead back in Cleveland yet. Ben Tate has been at the top of his game the last two weeks and looks to continue that momentum into one of the best matchups he will encounter all season.

First off, Tate is clearly the lead back. He has taken 63 percent of the team’s running attempts played on 69 percent of the total snaps in the last two games. Crowell had a big fantasy day in Week 6, but he is still only playing 24 percent of the snaps and has 23 percent of the team rushing attempts.

Jacksonville does not have much right going for it at the moment and their defense is trending down. The Jaguars allow an average of 107 yards rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per week – with 64 of those yards coming after contact. Both running backs will be active with Jacksonville giving up the fourth most opponent snaps per game with 70. With Tate seeing the majority of that work, look for him to pay off his salary in cash games.

Ben Tate Projection

Car: 18.9
Yards: 83.3
TD: 0.9
Rec: 2.4
ReYards: 19.8
ReTD: 0.1

RB Alfred Morris – Redskins vs TEN

Alfred Morris looks like he’s been running in reverse the past two weeks with two disappointing performances against tough run defenses. His 2.8 yards per carry during that stretch paints a clear picture that Morris can be touchdown dependent to have a big fantasy day.

Lucky for Morris, the Redskins have a home game against a struggling Titans run defense. The fact that the Redskins are decent favorites in this contest indicates they could lean on the run more to mask some of the turnover problems plaguing quarterback Kirk Cousins. Here is a breakdown of opposing running backs versus Tennessee since Week 2:

Running Backs vs. Tennessee

The one glaring thing that sticks out is that the Jaguars were the only team not to have a field day against this defense. We can chalk that up to not having a starting caliber tailback on the roster to take advantage of their deficiency. If we overlook Morris’ recent struggles and focus on his depressed salary across the industry – he looks like a must start for the value.

Alfred Morris Projection

Car: 21.0
Yards: 90.9
TD: 0.9
Rec: 0.8
ReYards: 5.7
ReTD: 0.1

RB Justin Forsett – Ravens vs ATL

We’ve covered the poor Atlanta defense ad nauseam in this column each week it seems and this week is no different. No scientific formulas or advanced stats are going to sugar coat the situation. The Falcons are the worst team in the league against running backs by a wide margin, hence our interest in Justin Forsett. On the surface it looks like Forsett is in a time share with Bernard Pierce. Upon further review, it does appear that the coaching staff favors the veteran by a slight margin and that makes him our target this week.

Forsett handled most of the early work and then the team mixed in Pierce some after the Ravens opened up a 14 point lead. Forsett had just one carry in the fourth quarter and Lorenzo Taliaferro’s two carries did not come until the fourth quarter. Pierce did little to impress (2.1 YPC) when he took the bulk of the carries with the game in hand.

We shouldn’t expect Joe Flacco to sling the ball around the yard for a second consecutive week, so the pivot from that is to expect another solid day on the ground from Forsett.

Justin Forsett Projection

Car: 14.2
Yards: 71.6
TD: 0.9
Rec: 2.1
ReYards: 21.8
ReTD: 0.1

WR Justin Hunter – Titans at WAS

Justin Hunter is finally showing the breakout potential that my Grinders Live cohost stlcardinals84 proclaimed for him at the beginning of the season. And Hunter should get a boost this weekend with the return of starting quarterback Jake Locker from injury. Even if Locker doesn’t start, Hunter has shown that he can gel with any of the Titans quarterbacks.

In the last two weeks, Hunter has been on the cusp of some big fantasy days with a total of six receptions for 176 yards and a touchdown. That doesn’t include being tackled at the 1-yard line last week either. The team is taking shots downfield with him with his massive 16.4 aDOT (average depth of target) and 19 percent market share.

This week Hunter should David Amerson opposing him from his split end position. Amerson has been steady but unspectacular this year – allowing 28 catches (76% catch rate) and 257 yards in coverage. He also hasn’t faced a deep threat like Hunter yet this year and it could lead to surrendering his first touchdown of the year.

Justin Hunter Projection

Rec: 4.7
ReYards: 76.0
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 0.1
TD: 0.0

WR Davante Adams – Packers vs CAR

Davante Adams has been gradually phasing out Jarrett Boykin the past two weeks to the point where Adams likely has the starting job for the remainder of the season. Aaron Rodgers has noted that Adams has been getting separation on defenders and getting open often – and now he trusts the rookie from Fresno State with a larger role. In the last two weeks, Adams has seen his targets jump from three to seven and his market share from 14% to 18%.

Now that Adams is on the field approximately 80 percent of the time at split end, we can count on him for fantasy production in good matchups. This week Carolina visits Green Bay in a game where there is going to be a bunch of points scored. Jordy Nelson is a no-brainer must start, but Adams makes a sneaky pivot for a large fantasy day. He will see Melvin White in coverage for the majority of the game. White has given up 20 catches for 353 yards and three touchdowns this year. Those touchdowns have come recently to Steve Smith (2) and Mohamed Sanu – so his confidence could be rattled.

Even a stack of Rodgers, Nelson and Adams could be enough to take down a GPP tournament.

Davante Adams Projection

Rec: 6.5
ReYards: 88.4
ReTD: 0.4
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0

WR Allen Robinson – Jaguars vs CLE

Allen Robinson seemingly is mention every week in this space. It is hard not to get excited about a player that is seeing 90 percent of the offensive snaps on a team that is always in passing situations. In the last two weeks, Robinson has seen 19 targets (or 25% of the market share) and looks primed to tally his first NFL touchdown this week.

Robinson will match up with cornerback Buster Skrine who has been brutal at times this year. Skrine has allowed 21 catches (33 targets) for 267 yards (104 YAC) and four touchdowns this year. Those touchdowns went to Jimmy Graham, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Lance Moore. While most will be enamored with Cecil Shorts’ 15 targets last week – Robinson is the better bet to find the endzone this week.

Allen Robinson Projection

Rec: 5.8
ReYards: 85.6
ReTD: 0.4
RuYards: 0.4
TD: 0.0

WR Corey Fuller – Lions vs. NO

If you are looking for a minimum priced wide receiver to pair with Stafford on a GPP team – look no further than Corey Fuller. He is not a flashy name nor does he have recent production that indicates a breakout is imminent, but he does have a prime opportunity.

Fuller has taken over for Calvin Johnson at split end for the most part. His snaps (58% to 72%) and target market share (13% to 16%) have increased the last two games. He profiled in college as elite level size-speed project and the Lions need him to come through in a game like this one against New Orleans. Luckily for him, the primary defender he will see in coverage from the Saints is Corey White. White has struggled this season and teams have targeted his side of the field often. Through five games, White is surrendering six targets per game for an average of 4.6 receptions and 49.2 yards (including 18.4 YAC). He has allowed a touchdown to Terrance Williams and Louis Murphy. Both touchdowns came in the red zone.

Don’t be surprised when Stafford looks to Fuller’s way in this game often to take advantage of White in coverage.

Corey Fuller Projection

Rec: 3.6
ReYards: 47.3
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 2.5
TD: 0.0

TE Dwayne Allen – Colts vs CIN

There is not a lot of rocket science behind a recommendation of Dwayne Allen – the Bengals are the most favorable defense against opposing tight ends. This is due to the team’s insistence in covering tight ends with linebackers out of base personnel. The three touchdowns given up to tight ends have all come in the last two weeks. Tim Wright (Lamur), Rob Gronkowski (Maualuga) and Greg Olsen (Burfict) have all come in the red zone.

Through five games the Bengals are allowing a staggering 7.8 receptions, 91.4 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game. If we know the Bengals struggle with coverage in the middle of the field – you can be sure Andrew Luck knows this too. Fire up Allen in your lineups this week.

Dwayne Allen Projection

Rec: 5.4
ReYards: 63.7
ReTD: 0.6

TE Jared Cook – Rams vs SEA

Jared Cook is quietly having a good season now they we aren’t expecting him to be the second coming of Antonio Gates. His targets are up nearly three per game from 2013 and he has 19 targets the last two games for a 23 percent market share. With expectations low – he is thriving.

Next up for Cook and the Rams are the defending Super Bowl champions, who travel to St. Louis after a tough home loss to the Cowboys. We can be sure the Seahawks will want to right the ship quickly and that means the Rams will have to keep pace on the scoreboard. Luckily for Cook, the Seahawks have struggled to cover opposing tight ends this year. Here is the breakdown by defender:

Seahawks’ Defenders vs. Tight Ends

Most of this damage can be attributed to Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas and Jason Witten as one would expect. Given the Seahawks struggles in coverage and a tough divisional opponent on the road – it makes Cook an intriguing play after he left a bigger fantasy day on the field Monday night.

Jared Cook Projection

Rec: 5.5
ReYards: 58.9
ReTD: 0.6