MLB Props and Pick'em

Javier is set to make his season debut on Monday. He's been sidelined for the past 14 months while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Based on his rehab work and Houston's current roster, there are questions about Javier's effectiveness and workload.

Javier posted an 18% K% and a 12.7% BB% across 7 starts before going down with the injury in 2024. He was more like a league-average arm in 2023, with a 23.1% K% and 9% BB% over 31 starts. Javier is now 3 years removed from the back-to-back elite strikeout seasons he posted in 2021 and 2022. His SwStr% has ticked down each of the past 2 years. Javier made 5 rehab appearances and maxed out at 3.2 IP and 77 pitches. His rising control problems were present at Triple-A, as he posted a 15:15 K:BB over 14 innings.

Boston has the 7th-lowest K% vs. RHP since the start of July. It's a subpar matchup, but the bigger factor might be the obvious piggyback option. Colton Gordon was slated to start on Sunday, but Jason Alexander, who was lined up for Monday, ended up earning the nod. It appears Gordon has been bumped from the rotation, likely moving into a long-relief role. Gordon has made 13 starts this season and last pitched on August 2nd. He's a strong candidate to follow Javier and cover several innings, perhaps even more than the starter.