With the spread of COVID-19 now having a major impact in the world of sports, The PGA Tour released an official statement prior to the start of today’s round. The tournament will carry on as planned and those fans who are not comfortable attending can receive refunds. The tour will release more information regarding the effect of COVID-19 at noon today. So, for now, it’s business as usual and round one will start as planned. In terms of DFS, there is no news to report. ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!
Kevin Roth’s weather report is up on our new PGA weather page. After a few brutal weeks in terms of wind, golfers this week will have very little to deal with in terms of weather. The wind over the first two rounds will be both consistent and minimal as we should not see speeds past 10mph. Wind gusts on Friday afternoon could reach 15mph, but the chance is not great enough to impact the tee time draw basis this week.
In many ways missing the cut at last week’s API was a blessing for Tommy Fleetwood. Looking to put the disappointment of a failed finish at the Honda Classic behind him, Fleetwood got last weekend off and should be rested to play this week. Great ball strikers have always faired well at TPC Sawgrass and despite a poor showing at a very hard Bay Hil, Fleetwood is still one of the best ball strikers in the game. In addition to being a great driver of the golf ball, Fleetwood is the type of player who controls the distance of his irons as well as anyone in the game. Playing in his fourth Players Championship Fleetwood enters this week looking to improve on a very impressive top-five finish at last year’s event.
After struggling with injuries most of the 2019 season Daniel Berger enters this week playing some outstanding golf. Back and healthy again there is a strong argument to be made that price expectations have not caught up to the current form of Berger’s game. With three straight top ten or better finishes, this former PGA Tour rookie heads into this week with a ton of momentum. Priced-down in this very strong field, Berger stands out as one of the stronger value plays for the week. Playing in his sixth Players Championship Berger is 4 for 5 in cuts made with one career top 10.
With a ton of uncertainty about his game moving forward, Justin Rose continues to decline in terms of player confidence for the DFS Community. Adding to his poor play this season is the bit of confusion surrounding the status of his deal with Honma golf. After signing a multi-year deal to feature Honma clubs in his bag, Rose has really struggled to find a fit that he likes and therefore is starting to search for answers with other brand named equipment. As of Wednesday Rose and Honma have not made an official announcement about the status of their partnership. Heading into this week’s Players Championship a discounted Rose appears to be a player that many will avoid for the week. If you are a person that buys into long term talent, then this is a great spot to grab a few shares of Rose in some of the larger field tournaments.
Patrick Cantlay returns to the PGA Tour after a multiple-week absence. Having trouble sleeping due to complications from surgery during the 2018 season Cantlay had a cleanup operation to fix his deviated septum. Gamers should not worry about the operation as the procedure did not have an impact on any part of Cantlay’s swing. Playing in his fourth Players Championship, Cantlay will look to bounce back from a disappointing cut at last year’s event. Currently ranked 6th in the world, Cantlay enters this week having made all four cuts in the 2020 calendar season including 3 top 25 or better finishes.
Just a few short minutes after lock last week, news broke that defending API champion Francesco Molinari had withdrawn with a back injury. Molinari woke up Thursday morning and was unable to tie his shoes. Dealing with a lingering back injury for a few months now, last week was the first time that Molinari was unable to manage the pain. After a week off and some therapy, Molinari appears ready to play this week. Mired in an extended slump Molinari will almost certainly go very under-owned again this week.
With just about five minutes until roster lock, it’s all quiet on the news front this morning. The chance for high winds late Thursday afternoon could mount to a favorable weather draw for the early Thursday late Friday wave. ResutlsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good Luck this week Grinders!!!!
Struggling to find his form this season Justin Rose could have a different set of irons in his bag on Thursday. Rose showed up to the course on Wednesday without a Honma club in his bag. Last week at The Honda Classic Rose was spotted playing the new Taylor Made SIM driver, and this week he has added what appears to be Taylor Made blades in place of his normal Honma irons. Rose has a multi-year deal with Honma, so it will be interesting to see what actually happens on Thursday.
Kevin Roth’s weather report for The Arnold Palmer Invitational is up in the main forum. According to Roth, there is a strong chance that wind speeds will increase as a front moves through the area. Storms are also possible with this front, but it’s the wind speeds that we want to pay attention to as in terms of having an impact on playing conditions. The forecast calls for wind speeds in the 5 to 10mph range Thursday morning, and as the front moves through golfers in the afternoon will face wind speeds in the 15 to 20 mph range. With a chance that gusts could reach the 30mph range on late Thursday, there is potentially a strong weather draw in play for round one. Friday, for the most part, looks to have the same weather each wave, so our edge is to pick golfers early on Thursday. If you are mass multi entering this week it looks like building lineups within each draw ( favoring the predicted weather draw ) gives you the best chance to catch a benefit from getting the weather correct. Remember there is always a chance that the forecast does not hold, so you could gain an edge by playing some afternoon waves in case the forecast misses. For now, though it appears the early Thursday/ late Friday draw has the best chance to play in the least amount of wind.
It was not that long ago that Brooks Koepka looked like the most dominating player in the game. Heading into this season not quite 100% healthy, Koepka has struggled to play the type of golf we expect for a player of his caliber. Injuries and poor course history are factored into the price for Koepka this week creating a great spot to buy low on a world-class player in large field GPP’s, By no means is Kokepa safe for cash games or even single entry GPP’s, but if you are mass entering this week then Koepka is worth a strong look. As a late addition to this week’s field, Koepka should have a much need sense of urgency to figure a few things out as he prepares for an important stretch of golf. As one of the few players in the game that can dial his game in at anytime this is a great spot to play a little game theory.
Prior to winning last year’s API Francisco Molinari was on track to establishing himself as one of the top players in the world of golf. One month after winning this tournament last season, Molinari was in a prime spot to win his second major as he played with a lead on Sunday at The Masters. There is a very strong sentiment in the world of golf that his inability to close the deal at Augusta is the very reason why Molinari has struggled over the last 11 months. Still searching for his first top ten since this tournament last year, Molinari has fallen some nineteen spots in world ranking points in the last year. Despite the decrease in price Molinari is a player that most in the DFS world has simply chosen to ignore. While the case for not picking Molinari is all pretty obvious, there are a few reasons to consider him as a roster option for this week. First and foremost the line between playing well and playing poorly is often smaller than most of us realize. In post-game interviews or articles written about his downfall, Molinari has expressed the exact same sentiment. There is not some glaring swing flaw keeping him from playing well, but instead, Molinari is just struggling to put 18 holes together. His inability to play longer stretches of top quilty golf is the reason for his poor play. Currently projected at sub 4% ownership Molinari also provides a pivot off other golfers in his price range. With a perfect cut record at Bay Hill, including 4 top tens or better finishes, Molinari has the game to play this course. Again the strong vibe coming out of his camp is that Molinari is close to playing well and feels good about his game. Looking to finally put together a stretch of good holes, Molinari is hopeful that this title defense week will finally get his season turned around.