Champions League Preview: Wednesday
Hopefully Tuesday’s slate was kind to you; to be transparent, it was not for me. Too many shares of Schalke, Oscar, Yacine Brahimi (he got you/me ten points, but that missed penalty was a killer) and Diego Costa, amongst others. Too many options, too many different lineups diluted my DraftKings plays on Tuesday. Live and learn…
Another action-packed day beckons on Wednesday, so let’s start with the most obvious play from the seven available options on the slate (keep in mind that the Zenit St. Petersburg/Monaco matchup is not in play).
Ludogorets vs. Real Madrid
Alright—here’s the thing. You don’t need to be an expert to load up on Mergenues for your lineup. Iker Casillas ($4,800) or Keylor Navas ($4,600) is the chalk move in goal. Trying to stack one of them with a pair of defenders will be difficult if, IF, Madrid use their “A” team. All four normal starting defenders are $4,000 or higher, three of which are $4,800 or more (Sergio Ramos, Fabio Coentrao and Marcelo). Madrid are huge favorites on the road, and the only way you’ll be able to create full-on Madrid stack is if Carlo Ancelotti rests some starters. If they start, Raphael Varane ($3,400) and Dani Carvajal ($3,600) are more affordable options.
Midfielders will cost you also— Gareth Bale ($9.000) and James Rodriguez ($8,300) are the headliners, Toni Kroos ($6,800) and Luka Modric ($6,500) the well paid and incredibly good “support staff”. Any option beyond those four that starts for Madrid become instant value plays, especially if Isco ($3,800) goes from the opening whistle.
Then you have the attackers—that guy—what’s his name? Oh….Cristiano Ronaldo ($11,000). His ownership percentages should be higher than Leo Messi and Neymar on Tuesday. Karim Benzema ($9,100), of course, is no slouch, and Javier “Chicarito” Hernandez ($5,600) is an option even if he comes off the bench.
So keep an eye on the starting lineup Ancelotti puts out there, use your cap wisely, and pair your Madrid stack wisely with value options from other teams. And for the hosts, pray for Ludogorets. If you’re a brave soul, throw out Vladislav Stoyanov ($3,200) in goal and hope for the game of his life.
Basel vs. Liverpool
The Swiss have proven to be a dangerous opponent as of late in Champions League play, and Liverpool travel to Basel coming off the late disappointment of a 1-1 draw against Everton in the Merseyside derby. Daniel Sturridge and Mamadou Sakho have already been ruled out for Liverpool; the former leaves Mario Balotelli ($7,400) as the likely lone forward for Brendan Rogers. The Italian is a GPP option, or for those who like to live dangerously, a second striker or flex option in cash games. It’s tough to have a lot of trust in Balotelli on current form.
Raheem Sterling ($8,500) is the better option on DraftKings if you want a Liverpool attacker; he has been much more consistent a player. Steven Gerrard ($6,900) will have his chances on dead balls and perhaps from the penalty spot, while Philippe Coutinho ($3,700) will have value if starting. Glen Johnson ($3,400), Alberto Moreno ($3,200) and Javi Manquillo ($2,400) are decently priced as outside backs to be used as defenders in your lineup. While a clean sheet is far from a given, they will get forward when given the chance. However, I just can’t see spending on Simon Mignolet ($5,200).
As for Basel, they are really strong at home, especially of late in European play. A positive result is needed to wipe clean their 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Madrid in September. Use of keeper Tomas Vaclik ($3,000) has its merits both in price point and Basel’s opportunity to get a win at home combined with Liverpool’s limited offensive options at the current time. If they can frustrate Balotelli and keep Sterling at bay, a clean sheet isn’t out of the question. Behrang Safari ($2,900) could have his value in a combination with Vaclik.
Midfield and forward options are a little harder to read. Derlis Gonzalez ($4,900) has the speed and talent to give Liverpool difficulties, while Marco Streller ($6,200) is the only given starter Basel will likely go with. Keep an eye on who Pablo Sousa starts for Basel, and try to find the value that could exploit Liverpool’s backline.
Anderlecht vs. Borussia Dortmund
The Germans top their group after beating Arsenal 2-0 last month; and will look to solidfy their spot on top with a win in Belgium. They’re favorites against Anderlecht on the road, and while the options for Dortmund are not cheap, they should return their investment. Despite a league loss at Schalke this past weekend, options like Roman Weidenfeller ($4,500), Marcel Schmelzer ($2,000), Lucasz Piszczek ($2,000) and Mats Hummels ($4,100) worth rostering—if Jurgen Klopp starts them.
As stated by others, the minimum price given to winger Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang seems to be a mistake by DraftKings. If he starts, he’s the most likely value filler to a Real Madrid stack out there. Shinji Kagawa ($7,300) should be at the center of it all for Dortmund, but it’s harder to fit him in alongside top end options elsewhere. And with Marco Reus plus Ciro Immobile out up top, Adrian Ramos ($6,000) has his chance from the start to shine for Dortmund.
For the hosts, Anderlecht’s best options are forwards Aleksandar Mitrovic ($6,900) and Matias Suarez ($6,000), while midfield value options (if starting) Ibrahima Conte and Youri Tielemans (both $3,000) might be nice options to fill in your roster with. Same with goalkeeper Silvio Proto.
Arsenal vs. Galatasaray
The only major home favorite that stands out that rivals Madrid on Wednesday is Arsenal, but several injuries will limit the Gunners’ ceiling overall. Wojciech Szczesny ($4,300) is an alternative chalk option to Casillas or Navas, but neither Calum Chambers ($4,000) or Kieran Gibbs ($2,700) have the ceiling or floor that anyone Real Madrid has in defense.
And if you’re going to spend up for a midfielder, why choose Mesut Ozil ($8,700) in the place of the aforementioned Bale or Rodriguez who are in the same price neighborhood other than being contrarian? Santi Cazorla ($5,300) could have some value, but it might be hard fitting him into your lineup overall. The same thinking used for Ozil can be brought to the table at forward; both Danny Welbeck ($9,500) and Alexis Sanchez ($9,200) are less than Ronaldo, but Benzema is in the same cost tier as well, and you might choose to go with a cheaper option alongside Ronaldo.
Galatasaray is full of medium level potential at medium level costs; they are a completely unsexy set of options. Burak Yilmaz ($6,000) and Goran Pandev ($6,100)? Meh personifed. There’s the small chance Galatasaray just dismantles Arsenal at the Emirates, but are you willing to bet on those odds?
Atletico Madrid vs. Juventus
To me, this is the best match of the day. Atletico’s at home, having lost their opener in Champions League play, and are in need of a win against a Juve side that’s talented and unbeaten so far both in Serie A and in Europe. You’d have to pay up for either Gianluigi Buffon ($4,600) or Moya ($4,100) —and if you’re going to pay up in net, you have better options elsewhere.
There is simply no lack of useable options in defense, midfield and attack in this one. Juve’s Stephan Liechtensteiner ($3,200) and Patrice Evra ($3,900) are used as wingbacks by Massimiliano Allegri—but keep an eye on whether Evra or Kwadwo Asamoah starts on the left, as the latter is listed as a midfielder by DraftKings and therefore loses a bit of luster. Both Giorgio Chiellini ($4,300) and Atletico’s Diego Godin ($3,600) are rare central defense options you can use with confidence, especially since they score goals. Both are up with the previously mentioned Sergio Ramos and Mats Hummels in that respect.
Andrea Pirlo is out for Juventus, leaving the trio of Arturo Vidal ($6,700), Paul Pogba ($6,500) and Claudio Marchisio ($6,300) as midfielders you can use in any kind of lineup. All three have no issue shooting from distance, will be involved going forward and should see 90 minutes short of getting into card trouble or injury. But there’s just as much talent and a little more value in Atletico’s pair of Koke ($5,600) and Arda Turan ($5,100), and if he starts Raul Garcia ($4,800) is likely to be given a role as a withdrawn striker behind Atletico’s lone forward.
That forward is Mario Mandzukic ($8,200), who is the most likely Atletico player to end up on the scoresheet. But if I’m choosing anyone from this match, it is Juve’s Carlos Tevez ($7,900). He’s on fire, scoring six in his last four, and he can provide as well. Tevez and Fernando Llorente ($5,500) have that big man/little man partnership working really well right now. Also, if Garcia is not given the start, Raul Jimenez ($4,800) should be and is an interesting option as a flex.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Benfica
This is another match I’ll be avoiding for the most part, but there are a handful of options that may fit into a lineup. There’s no stacking potential or cash game plays in this one, but individuals that can be used in GPPs. Chief amongst them are Bayer’s Stefan Kiessling ($6,500), who fills the net on the right day and has a moderate price point. If Josip Drmic starts for Bayer, he’s another option at minimum cost that you can use to load up with other high priced players mentioned prior.
Two midfield minimum options are on the table in the form of Benfica’s Nicolas Gaitan and Bayer’s Hakan Calhanoglu. Both are in the attacking midfielder mold and could turn a tidy point profit, especially the latter. I can’t see starting any defenders from this one, and there are better options for a “surer” chance at a win and clean sheet bonus than Bayer’s Bernd Leno ($4,000).
Malmo vs. Olympiacos
Let’s keep this one brief. You can go with one of the two lesser priced keepers, Robin Olsen ($3,400) or Roberto ($3,100), but it’s a clear punt plus contrarian option. There are mid-level options in midfield you can pivot to, like Malmo’s Emil Forsberg ($5,600) who scored a hat trick in league play over the weekend, or Olympiacos’ Pajtim Kasami ($6,000) or Ibrahim Afellay ($4,200).
But the only real option from this one that fits into the overall roster construction a lot of people will be using—the Real Madrid stack—is forward Konstantinos Mitroglou. He’s a minimum play, and he’s the lead part of the attack for the visitors. He’s another low cost option to use as a second forward or flex option.