College Basketball Picks For Today: Value on Favorites—Wyoming, Drake, Radford
Coleman Crawley, host of the college basketball podcast Mimosas Til March, breaks down his NCAAB betting tips and college basketball picks for today — Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021.
Is betting strictly favorites against the spread in college basketball going to make you a profitable gambler? No. But betting The Favorite Favorites might. What if I told you in the 2018-19 season you could’ve won against the spread at a 57.1% clip? Or in the 2019-20 season you could’ve won against the spread at a 55.6% clip, would you have taken it? You’d be a fool not to. Let me show what it looks like to use this college basketball betting strategy at online sportsbooks this season.
CBB Betting Tips: How To Bet On Favorites
When I cheer for teams in college basketball, I’ve always been an underdog guy. Are you human if you’re not? However, when I bet on college basketball, I’ve always been a favorites guy. This consistent selection of betting favorites and typically ending up in the black at the end of the college basketball season led me to conducting an experiment. How do I make money picking nearly exclusively favorites, when oddsmakers are impeccable at setting efficient college basketball lines to the point where half the time favorites cover, and half the time underdogs cover? Is it because I’m simply picking the right ones? But this can’t consistently work long-term, can it?
My theory has been that sportsbooks have a tough time setting college basketball lines high enough for the best teams in college basketball in each conference, and they consistently cover. I also believe that these oddsmakers have a difficult time catching up to how bad the worst teams are in college basketball. I decided to test my theory by looking at the past two seasons in college basketball, and seeing how the top two and bottom two in the conference standings fared against the spread in the conference season. I wait to bet on college basketball until the beginning of the conference season because finally we have enough data where we aren’t going off just preseason expectations, and we begin to have more of an apples to apples comparison with the round robin conference scheduling. In this test I acted as if I picked the top 2 in each conference against the spread for every game, and faded the bottom 2 in every game.
The results were astounding. In ’18-’19 the top team in each conference went 355-257 (58.01%) ATS. Fading the worst team would’ve had you finish 340-221 (60.6%). If you would’ve just rode the top team in each conference, and faded the worst team in each, risking to win $100 per game, you would’ve made a profit of $16,920 in less than two and a half months. The second best and second worst teams weren’t as successful, but both profitable at 52.4% for the second best and 57.7% for the second worst in each conference. Of the 124 teams tracked in the ’18-’19 season, 50 of them won at or above a 60% rate using this strategy. Only 38 of them were unprofitable, meaning they won below a 52.4% rate. So there is a better chance a team will finish 7.6% above what’s necessary to be profitable betting against the spread, than they are to be unprofitable. I thought this has to be an anomaly. Surely this wouldn’t work for multiple years, which was why I tested the ’19-’20 season as well.
The results came out extremely similar. Riding the best and fading the worst team each won at a 56.6% rate. The second best won at a 55.1% rate, and fading the second worst won at a 54.2% rate. Risking to win $100 in each game would’ve resulted in a profit of $15,570, again in less than two and a half months. Of the 124 teams in the ’19-’20 season, 46 of them won at or above a 60% rate, and 43 of them were unprofitable.
Obviously there are a few flaws with this experiment. Here, we clearly know who the top two and bottom two were at the end of the season, because it was completed after the season was over. During the course of the season we don’t get that luxury to go two and a half months into the future and automatically know who the top and bottom two will be. You can have an idea or educated predictions, but of course those won’t always be accurate. This is where I come into play and help identify who these top and bottom two are early in the season. Since starting January 4th, I’m winning at a 54.3% rate attempting to emulate this strategy. The key is attempting to minimize risk, and I believe this strategy allows me to do that. Next week I’ll address more of the flaws in this experiment, and a new one I’m conducting to combat it. However, you’ll have to wait until next week for that, and settle with three college basketball picks that I love for today’s slate of college hoops.
College Basketball Betting Picks for Today
Wyoming Cowboys -5.5 at New Mexico Lobos
This is my favorite game of the night. Wyoming is 4-8 in Mountain West conference play while New Mexico is 1-11 in conference play. I’m not making this college basketball pick because I think Wyoming is one of the best teams in the conference, but because I believe New Mexico is the worst. Wyoming is just 4-8, but they’ve already had to play four of the top five teams in the conference standings twice, and are yet to play New Mexico and San Jose St. who are a combined 4-22 in the conference this year. It’s very plausible Wyoming will sweep those two matchups to get to .500. This is one example of sportsbooks not being able to catch up to how bad some teams are, as New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in conference play. I believe we are getting a deflated line, and thus some betting value, due to Wyoming’s bad-but-skewed conference record — hopefully it will translate to a cover against the spread for Wyoming. It’s worth noting that we can be on Wyoming -5.5 at BetMGM, though the consensus line is -6 at other online sportsbooks.
CBB Pick: [Bet Wyoming -5.5 at BetMGM]
Note: College basketball odds are subject to change. The pick above is accurate at the time this article was published. Use our odds tool to find updated lines and the best sportsbook for your betting picks.
Drake Bulldogs -4.5 at Northern Iowa Panthers
If you’ve been following college basketball at all this year, you’d know about Drake’s 18-game winning streak to start the season, and they began the year a ridiculous 13-0 ATS. They’ve now lost two of their last four games, and their leading scorer at 14 points a contest, Shanquan Hemphill, will miss significant time for a broken foot. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa meanwhile was predicted to be maybe the best team in the conference at the beginning of the season, but lost their star three games in and have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country. They are 5-10 in conference play, third to last in the Missouri Valley Conference, and a league last 4-10-1 ATS in conference play this season. I believe we are getting a deflated line here due to the Hemphill injury, which sportsbooks are overreacting to. Drake already beat a Top 25 team and the conference leaders, Loyola Chicago, without him. The Bulldogs also beat Northern Iowa by 21 just a week ago, granted however, at home, with Hemphill available. I still don’t believe his injury warrants such a drastic change in the spread that makes them merely two possession favorites. Additionally, I love taking mid-major teams that are borderline at-large NCAA Tournament worthy candidates because they play desperate, knowing they can’t afford losses late in the year. Give me the Bulldogs -4.5.
CBB Pick: [Bet Drake -4.5 at BetMGM]
Radford Highlanders -4 vs. Gardner-Webb Bulldogs
Here we have the second best team in the conference, Radford, who is 12-4 on the year in the Big South, but 12-2 on the year when their opponent isn’t named Winthrop. This is the second best team in the conference, but the best against the spread at 10-6 in conference play, and again, 10-4 when they aren’t playing Winthrop. Last time I checked Gardner-Webb is not Winthrop. Gardner-Webb has lost an impressive eight of their last nine games against the spread, and has the worst record in the conference ATS. They are on a slide that cannot seem to be stopped. Given Radford is coming off back to back losses trying to knock off the best team in the conference, I believe they will come out inspired looking to avenge their recent performance. I was a little shocked to see this line so short,, and I have confidence in the Highlanders winning by more than 4 points today at home.
CBB Pick: [Bet Radford -4 at BetMGM]
Image Credit: Imagn