UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley Beat Down
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Beat Down, the 201 version, which means it’s almost time for Robbie Lawler! This is an awesome card to play on DraftKings and there’s a ton of money to be won.
DraftKings is running a $75K Main Event with 10K to 1st place, as well as a $300 and $5 Gotham Qualifier, so make sure you get in on the action! Myself and Gravycakes have already recorded an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast, which can be found here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for all the latest MMA DFS content.
PLEASE NOTE: My picks to win are representative of who I think will win the fight more often than not, and are only meant to supplement the analysis in the breakdown.
MAIN CARD
Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley
Fight Odds: Lawler -200, Woodley +170
Odds to finish: -215
Salaries: Lawler 10.6k, Woodley 9k
Weight Class: 170
It’s always a joy to watch Robbie Lawler fight and he’s been in several instant classics during his UFC career, most recently beating Carlos Condit in an incredible decision. Ironically, the odds of Lawler still retaining the title after arguably losing to Johnny Hendricks, coming from behind to finish Rory MacDonald and arguably losing to Condit (he lost) were slim, but this matchup with Tyron Woodley gives him a great chance to hold the belt for a while longer.
Woodley hasn’t fought since January 2015, and although that wasn’t necessarily his fault, I’d be surprised to see him immediately fall back into rythym. Woodley is a very talented fighter but his biggest strengths lie in the wrestling department, along with the power in his right hand.
From a matchup perspective though, it’s hard for me to not favor Lawler strongly. Lawler is aggressive on the feet and I expect him to fire off more volume than Woodley, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lawler beat Woodley up. I don’t think it’s an equal striking battle, and while Woodley has tools to be successful, unless he knocks Lawler out, I don’t think he’s winning this fight on the striking alone.
Lawler has faced some solid grapplers in the past and has ever improving takedown defense, and even if Woodley can get him to the ground early, or on a couple separate occasions, I don’t expect his wrestling to dominate this fight. Lawler has proven to a successful scrambler and his cardio should push him past Woodley in the later rounds.
On DraftKings, Woodley is only 9k and I expect him to be popular. I’m always a fan of targeting the main event in cash games and this fight is no different, but I don’t think Woodley possesses the same upside as Lawler and I’ll have significantly less of him in tournaments. I do think Lawler has a great chance to score 100+ points in this fight and potentially win by knockout in the championship rounds. For his floor, volume, upside and potentially moderate ownership, I’m going to be heavy on Lawler this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Lawler by TKO, RD 4
Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Fight Odds: Namajunas -230, Kowalkiewicz +190
Odds to finish: +155
Salaries: Namajunas 10.8k, Kowalkiewicz 8.6k
Weight Class: 115
These two ladies have been mighty impressive in their UFC careers, especially of late as Rose Namajunas put a beating on Paige VanZant to shock many, including myself.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a high-level, high output striker who’s shown upside inside the Octagon, and I think she’s a live dog in this fight. So far in the UFC, Kowalkiewicz has landed 6.17 significant strikes per minute compared to the 2.79 of Namajunas, and that makes my mouth water. While this fight is standing, I think Kowalkiewicz is likely to outland Namajunas and that gives her a great opportunity to win rounds.
What separates these two is Namajunas’ ground game, which can’t be ignored. Not only has her wrestling looked solid lately but she’s an excellent submission grappler, and she should have the advantage in both areas over Kowalkiewicz. I expect this fight to get to the ground at some point, probably early, and the key to the fight will be how Kowalkiewicz fares once that happens.
Personally, I think it’s unlikely that Namajunas can lock in a submission in the first round, which is what I’d be looking for at that price of 10.8k, and if I know she’s not going to land a ton of significant strikes, that makes her a lower-tier GPP play in my book. Vegas has the finish prop on Namajunas at +213 which still puts her in play, but Kowalkiewicz odds are currently +986. Yuck.
For a finish prop like that, it’s tough to play Kowalkiewicz in tournaments, and I agree that you can’t predict a finish for her in this bout. Realistically, she could land 100 significant strikes in a decision victory, and that would put her at 75 points in a decision win, so I don’t think you can rule her out completely in tournaments for the cheap price tag.
My favorite play from both sides is Kowalkiewicz in cash, though. That floor is hard to ignore, and if she can even land 60-70 strikes and lose a decision, I think she’s a value at 8.6k.
Fight Prediction: Namajunas by Decision
Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger
Fight Odds: Brown -325, Ellenberger +265
Odds to finish: -290
Salaries: Brown 10.9k, Ellenberger 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
It’s hard not to like Matt Brown in this matchup, and I think the public will be on the same page as I in this fight against Jake Ellenberger. Brown has lost some battles recently, but he’s still a top 10 Welterweight and there’s plenty of upside in this matchup.
Ellenberger has fallen off a cliff in his UFC career, losing five of his past six fights which include three finishes. He’s generally a power wrestler with power in his hands, but he hasn’t won by knockout since his bouts against Nate Marquardt in 2013, and against Jake Shields in 2011, and I don’t think he has the tools to overpower and finish a guy like Brown, who is as tough as they come.
The best route to win for Ellenberger is through his wrestling, but I expect Brown to hurt him early on the feet and slowly work toward a finish. Brown makes for a very solid cash play at his price and with the upside, he’s also a great tournament target. My main issue is his ownership, and if he’s going to be 50% owned, I’m not sure how much exposure I want.
Still, it can’t be denied that he’s a great play in all formats and I’m fine with paying for him if you have the money to spend.
Fight Prediction: Brown by TKO, RD 2
Francisco Rivera vs. Erik Perez
Fight Odds: Perez -125, Rivera +105
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Perez 9.7k, Rivera 9.7k
Weight Class: 135
I think the public is high on this fight between Francisco Rivera and Erik Perez, but it’s not a fight I’m super excited to target. I like Rivera yes, I think he’s a good technical boxer with heavy hands and the aggression to finish fights.
I’m surprised that Perez is the favorite honestly, he’s beaten guys like Taylor Lapilus but Rivera has fought the stiffer competition. Sure he’s lost to Urijah Faber, Brad Pickett and John Lineker but those are honorable losses, and it’s very arguable that he beat Pickett in his most recent fight.
On the feet, I just don’t see Perez winning the exchanges. He’s a tough guy but Rivera is more technical and has more power in my opinion, so I think Perez will look to utilize his ground game, where he can be effective. Both fighters are priced at 9.7k and you can argue Perez has price value based on his win odds, but if the public is on him at all, I won’t be. I just don’t like his upside in this fight and unless he wins by a quick submission, I don’t think he’ll be on the winning roster. I prefer Rivera for the upside, but I don’t mind fading this fight altogether.
Fight Prediction: Rivera by Decision
Ian McCall vs. Justin Scoggins
Fight Odds: Scoggins -245, McCall +205
Odds to finish: +165
Salaries: Scoggins 10.4k, McCall 9k
Weight Class: 125
I glanced over this matchup between Ian McCall and Justin Scoggins at first, but now I’m intrigued. It wasn’t that long ago McCall was on the Joe Rogan Podcast talking about how beat up his body was and that he was likely retired, and from the chatter I’ve heard on Twitter, I don’t think McCall is healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fight for the final time this weekend and retire, he just has too many injuries to make MMA a career at this point and he’s likely giving it “one last go.”
He’s still a tough dude, and this is the 125 lb. division which doesn’t yield a ton of finishes, but I have high hopes for Scoggins in this one. I wasn’t overly high on Scoggins in his fight against Ray Borb but wow, he looked amazing. His striking was better than ever, he landed with volume and precision, and his grappling game was on point. He also showed high quality movement that should play to his advantage in this fight and in the future.
While on the feet, McCall is certainly capable when healthy, but I expect Scoggins to get his licks in. He uses a very kick heavy game and McCall is hittable, so I expect him to land with moderate volume in a worst case scenario. McCall’s best chance to win this fight is get Scoggins to the ground, but again, I just don’t know how healthy he is, and based on how Scoggins looked against Borg, I have to think McCall will have trouble.
From a cash game perspective I think Scoggins is a great play, he’s only 10.4k and he’s currently a -245 favorite, which is the third highest on the card. I also think he has upside to finish, and with a +200 inside distance prop, I’ll have exposure to him in tournaments as well. I don’t think McCall is worth your time, even at the price. I think a wrestling based game is his best bet to win which is low upside to begin with, but his finish prop of +795 puts him over the edge.
Fight Prediction: Scoggins by TKO, RD 2
UNDERCARD
Nikita Krylov vs. Ed Herman
Fight Odds: Krylov -155, Herman +135
Odds to finish: -350
Salaries: Krylov 10.2k, Herman 9.2k
Weight Class: 205
Oh boy, this should be an interesting fight and an important one from a fantasy perspective. Nikita Krylov is going to be one of, if not the most popular fighter on the slate, I’ll start with that.
Consider his price of 10.2k, he’s very affordable – CHECK
In his last four fights, he’s won all four by finish with three in the first round. – CHECK
In the most recent fights he was heavily touted and he came through for people. – CHECK
His opponent Ed Herman hasn’t jumped off the page and he was knocked out two fights ago. – CHECK.
Clearly, Krylov has the upside and he’s one of the most aggressive and wild fighters in the UFC, and in the LHW division, a quick finish by him is semi-likely. Let’s not forget about his flaws though, Krylov is one of the worst defensive fighters in the UFC, not an understatement. Often times that doesn’t matter because his opponent is only worried about defending Krylov’s attacks.
Herman is a veteran though, he’s fought 19 times in the UFC and against high level competition, most recently knocking out Tim Boetsch. Before that he lost to Derek Brunson, and he fought Rafael Natal and Thales Leites prior to that, all reasonable competition.
In Krylov’s last four fights, he’s faced Francimar Barroso, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Stanislav Nedkov and Cody Donovan. That’s not a murderer’s row.
TLDR
I can’t argue with Krylov’s upside in this fight and I can’t tell you not to roster him in tournaments, I definitely will have exposure to him. I DO think that Herman makes for a very, very strong tournament play based on his projected ownership and upside. I think his upside might be overlooked, and Krylov is a finish or be finished fighter. This fight is very unlikely to make it to the scorecards, and if Krylov doesn’t win the in the first round, I think he probably loses.
Fight Prediction: Herman by Arm-Triangle, RD 2
Ross Pearson vs. Jorge Masvidal
Fight Odds: Masvidal -230, Pearson +190
Odds to finish: +150
Salaries: Masvidal 10.7k, Pearson 8.7k
Weight Class: 170
It feels like Ross Pearson has fought a ton recently, which makes sense because he’s coming off a loss to Will Brooks on July 8. Pearson is essentially a gatekeeper at this point in his career, and I think Jorge Masvidal has the tools to beat him.
Masvidal is the more technical fighter, especially defensively and I think he has the more well-rounded game. On the feet this fight could be close and if Masvidal fights with little effort and low output, it’s reasonable to think Pearson could pull off a decision, but I expect Masvidal to be more aggressive and land the better shots throughout the fight.
I also think he’ll mix it up with his wrestling game and get the fight to the floor, even if it’s for a short time.
From a DraftKings perspective, I don’t see enough upside on this fight to target it heavily, and both fighters are popular enough that a moderate ownership will drive me further off it. I think it’s reasonable to target in cash games, especially if you think the fight plays out primarily on the feet, but I will pass in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Masvidal by Decision
Anthony Hamilton vs. Damian Grabowski
Fight Odds: Hamilton -130, Grabowski +110
Odds to finish: -260
Salaries: Grabowski 10k, Hamilton 9.4k
Weight Class: HW
For a heavyweight fight, I get the feeling that Anthony Hamilton vs. Damian Grabowski will be severely under-owned in tournaments compared to the average HW fight. I say that because both Hamilton and Grabowski are general low-level grinders, and Hamilton has shown a knack to take the fight to decision.
It’s also relevant that this a close fight and it’s difficult to pick out a clear favorite, so players aren’t going to want to risk taking a sub-par HW in a slow, boring decision, when they can spend up on bigger names. I get it, the fight isn’t appetizing on paper but if each fighter is going to be owned at 20% or less, I definitely want exposure to both sides.
As a -130 favorite for only 9.4k, Hamilton is my HW of choice, and Vegas backs him up with a +175 inside distance prop. Grabowski has a +155 finish prop as well, and if he’s going to be lower owned for his higher price of 10k, I will be on that as well.
From a matchup perspective, Hamilton is likely to wrestle for takedowns and I think that’s where his advantage lies. It’s very possible Grabowski could hold him off, reverse him or even win on the feet. It’s tough to say really. I think you can “consider” Hamilton in cash games as he’s the best value on the card based on his win odds and price, but with a floor of literally 0, I won’t be on him.
Fight Prediction: Hamilton by Decision
Wilson Reis vs. Hector Sandoval
Fight Odds: Reis -320, Sandoval +260
Odds to finish: -125
Salaries: Reis 11k, Sandoval 8.4k
Weight Class: 125
Welcome to 2016, where Wilson Reis is your highest priced fighter. To be fair, he was supposed to fight Demetrious Johnson for the title and he gets a UFC newcomer in Hector Sandoval, so I get why the odds are heavily favored in his side.
I’ve seen Sandoval fight on the regional circuit, he comes out of West Coast Fighting and my buddy was/is supposed to fight on the card he was headlining in August against Joby Sanchez. Sandoval is a very aggressive fighter out of Team Alpha Male so you can probably figure out his style of fighting. He throws bombs on the feet and has a solid offensive wrestling game.
Reis is obviously in the title hunt for a reason, so I don’t think Sandoval comes in here and walks over him, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he put up a good fight, especially early. Reis has an outstanding submission grappling game and an improving inside wrestling game, so he might just overpower Sandoval and force a submission. He’s fought to a ton of decisions in his career though, and I don’t think he’s likely to get a quick finish.
Reis’ wins inside distance odds are +155 which is solid, but the fight is more than likely to end in a decision, so that puts him in the GPP category for me. I don’t think he’ll be super popular, but I think he’s worth rostering in a couple lineups if you have enough salary. He won’t be one of my higher targets though.
Sandoval probably won’t win…right..I mean it’s impossible to predict him walking away with a victory in his first UFC fight over the guy who was supposed to fight for the title, but Landon Vannatta looked great in his debut against a title contender..
Vegas has Sandoval listed at +438 to finish and for his price I’ll have a couple shares of him as well. This isn’t a high to overexpose yourself too, but I do think it deserves mild consideration.
Fight Prediction: Reis by Decision
Michael Graves vs. Bojan Velickovic
Fight Odds: Graves -235, Velickovic +195
Odds to finish: +157
Salaries: Graves 10.5k, Velickovic 8.9k
Weight Class: 170
I’m willing to take a shot on both Michael Graves and Bojan Velickovic in tournaments, but I definitely don’t think this fight is worth a large percentage of your shares, and with an O/U of -230 on 2.5 rounds, the upside is limited.
Michael Graves is the better prospect on paper and he has a strong wrestling based game. It will be tough to get past the size and reach advantage of Velickovic, which is one of the reasons I think the Serbian is worth a target, but I expect Graves to hold the edge overall. He’s likely to pressure Velickovic and get the fight down, and take a couple rounds en route to a decision win.
The upside for Graves lies in his ability to win by submission and he does have a strong back-control and choke game, so a quick sub wouldn’t shock me. In general, I doubt the fight finishes quickly and for the price of 10.5k, I’m hesitant to much exposure.
Fight Prediction: Graves by Decision
Ryan Benoit vs. Freddy Serrano
Fight Odds: Serrano -125, Benoit +105
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Serrano 9.9k, Benoit 9.5k
Weight Class: 125
I’ve heard buzz on this fight between Ryan Benoit and Freddy Serrano, and I think it’s an interesting fantasy matchup. Serrano is the Colombian Olympic wrestler with only three professional MMA fights and a powerful punch, and Benoit is the average flyweight with decent power.
While it’s likely Serrano takes Benoit down and grinds him out, there’s peripheral upside on this matchup, and I think it can be considered a striker/grappler affair. Yes, Serrano does have punching power, but I doubt he can compete with Benoit on the feet for 15 minutes and I’m sure he’ll look to get the fight to the mat where he’s at a big advantage.
Benoit on the other hand shouldn’t spend a ton of time trying to wrestle because it’s mostly a waste of energy against a talent like Serrano, and I’m honestly not sure how successful he’ll be at stuffing the takedown. For the chance that Benoit can keep the fight standing and take a striking battle, I think he’s in play for the price of 9.5k.
Vegas has a much higher wins inside distance odds of +189, and while I don’t necessarily agree with that, it puts him in play for tournaments. I think a small dose of each fighter (or one or the other) is reasonble, but this is a flyweight fight with questions, so it won’t be one of my heavier targets.
Fight Prediction: Benoit by Decision
Cesar Arzamendia vs. Damien Brown
Fight Odds: Brown -120, Arzamendia +100
Odds to finish: -165
Salaries: Brown 9.8k, Arzamendia 9.6k
Weight Class: 155
Another striker vs. grappler matchup, Cesar Arzamendia takes on Damien Brown in the opening prelim. Arzamendia is a muay-thai champion who’s suffered some less than spectacular knockouts at the hands of less than spectacular fighters, and it doesn’t give me massive hope for his UFC upside. Damien Brown took a decision win in his debut but it wasn’t much prettier.
While it’s possible Brown could beat Arzamendia in a striking match, I have to assume the TUF Latin America fighter is stronger on the feet, and Brown’s strength is grappling anyways. Early, I could see this being a back-and-forth fight but my guess is Arzamendia gasses quickly, so his window to win will be smaller. From a finishing perspective, I think Arzamendia finishes quickly or Brown finishes late, but it could very well end with a decision.
Vegas has Arzamendia tagged with a +170 finish prop, which is more than enough to put him in consideration for tournaments. I doubt he’ll be very popular, but I like him. Brown has a finish prop of +244 which puts him in play as well, although I prefer Arzamendia.
Fight Prediction: Arzamendia by TKO, RD 1