UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks, a rematch edition as two of the best LHWs square off for the title. Daniel Cormier beat Rumble Johnson last time around, but Rumble is the favorite this time, and I think he’ll be more popular.
It makes for an interesting tournament dilemma, and if you want my full thoughts on the main event and every fight on the card, you can find them in the MMA Premium section here.
The full breakdowns will be live Thursday night/Friday morning, along with Expert Rankings, Projections and more! I’ll be answering all questions in the Premium Chat prior to the fights, and will be chatting with subs during the fights as well, I hope to see you all there!
If you want to watch myself and gravycakes break down the fights in short, you can watch the Grinders Live MMA Podcast here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Magomed Bibulatov, $9,500
The most expensive fighter on the card this week is Magomed Bibulatov, who costs 9.5k on DraftKings, but I think he’s worth the price in cash games. He’s the safest option on the board with a -550 line to win, even though he’s making his UFC debut.
Bibulatov is an elite flyweight prospect and I think he can already challenge the top five in the division, so I’m not nervous about him testing the UFC waters against Jenel Lausa, who’s only had one fight in the Octagon himself.
That fight was against Yao Zhikui, one of the worst fighters in the division, and although Lausa won the fight, it wasn’t the performance I needed to see. Lausa can box well enough but Bibulatov has elite speed and should have a massive grappling advantage in this spot. Even if Bibulatov can’t get the finish, he shouldn’t have too much trouble winning the fight and should land enough takedowns and passes to score well.
If you’re looking for an anchor in cash games this weekend, Bibulatov is my top choice.
2. Irene Aldana, $7,500
I’m dropping all the way below the main event to Irene Aldana as my second favorite cash game on the card. She only costs 7.5k, and has a really solid floor for that price. She lost her UFC debut to Leslie Smith, but she landed 108 significant strikes in that fight and took more than that in return.
Smith isn’t elite, but she’s a tough veteran who’s aggressive and strikes at a high output, and that was too much for Aldana. Now she gets Katlyn Chookagian in her sophomore appearance, and I think she’ll have an easier time. She’s still the underdog in this spot, at +120, but even if you consider this fight to be a coin flip, Aldana should be able to pay off the price in cash games.
If Aldana loses a decision, I don’t see her landing less than 70 significant strikes which equates to a 35-point floor, and I think she has a very good chance to pull off the upset. I’m not expecting 100s of strikes and a huge upside performance from Aldana, but we don’t need that in cash games, and considering we’re forced to target 1-2 fighters below 8k, Aldana is my clear favorite.
Tournament Plays
1. Cynthia Calvillo, $9,100
I wrote up Cynthia Calvillo in her UFC debut as a good all-around play with sneaky upside to get the first round RNC. Nobody had heard of her at that time, and she came in far too under owned and won us all a bunch of money when she did in fact score the first round sub.
I don’t expect her to fall under the radar again, but I still don’t think the public has caught up to her potential, and especially with a price tag of 9.1k, I think her ownership will be low enough to target in tournaments.
She’s still a 115 in the women’s division, where there are rarely finishes, but I expect this fight to be high paced and that really intrigues me. Even if Calvillo can’t sink in another choke, I think she can land a few takedowns and passes, which will add up over the course of 15 minutes, and she can score well enough that it won’t hurt you. But she once again has sneaky upside in the Vegas lines with a +190 ITD prop.
Her opponent Pearl Gonzalez is similar in a lot of ways, but I don’t think her wrestling and scrambling is as strong and that’s going to be key here. Target Calvillo again this week.
2. Gregor Gillespie, $8,600
Another elite wrestler on this card, I think Gregor Gillespie is in a high upside spot against Andrew Holbrook, and I’m willing to take some shots on him in tournaments. I think he’ll be popular enough, but his ownership should be limited because people are still afraid to target wrestlers who win by decision in tournaments.
With the way DraftKings scores fights, you don’t need to finish quickly to have high upside, but you do need to be active. Gillespie is a former NCAA National Champion wrestler and she’s going to do everything he can to get the fight to the ground for 15 minutes. Even if he doesn’t win smoothly, he can still land a handful of takedowns and passes, and those add up.
For reference, if he were to land six takedowns and five passes, along with a few significant strikes, he could legitimately score 100 points even in a decision. I don’t think that outcome is unreachable, and I’m going to have tournament exposure to him.
Fade of the Week
1. Shane Burgos, $8,900
My true fade is Katlyn Chookagian, I think even in a win she won’t score well enough to be on winning lineups, but that’s sort of a cop out as I already picked her opponent Irene Aldana as a cash play.
Another expensive guy I don’t want much, if any exposure to, is Shane Burgos. My concerns with him are that he doesn’t fight at a high pace, and he may get suckered into a brawl here against Charles Rosa. Even though I think Burgos will probably get through this test with a victory, I’m not super confident in it, and I’m not confident he scores highly.
Rosa is extremely tough for one, and if you watch his fight against Yair Rodriguez you can see it. He took Rodriguez down five times in that fight and took ate punishment along the way, and almost pulled off a win. Rosa doesn’t mind being bloodied up and that toughness should put Burgos in some difficult situations throughout the fight.
I’m not sure to what extent of difficulty they will but, but another concern is that Burgos hasn’t really had a tough fight. He seems to cruise through every fight outside of the UFC and in his debut, and I don’t know how well he will react to tough situations. For example, I haven’t really seen him fight off his back.
Rosa will try to get the fight there, and I expect Burgos to defend well, but it’s still a concern. And unless Burgos finishes the fight, I don’t think he’ll land enough strikes to score 90+ points. He’s an OK grappler, but I know Rosa is very talented on the ground, so I think Burgos will try and keep the fight standing.
It mostly comes down to the price, with those concerns and uncertainty, I’m just not willing to shell out 8.9k when there other plays above him I like much more.
Weak Chin of the Week
1. Patrick Cummins
I like both sides of the Cummins/Blachowicz fight for GPPs and I actually think Cummins is a sneaky play because he’s an elite wrestler, facing Blachowicz who has poor takedowns. The big problem is his chin though, and that’s why people will avoid him.
I can’t say it’s a bad idea, I was burned by both of the bad chins I wrote up in this article, and it’s smart to target against them in some regard. Cummins has been knocked out in three of his past four fights, and he fights at the Light Heavyweight division, so it doesn’t take much to land a powerful punch.
Blachowicz is a decent enough striker that even if he’s losing, I can definitely picture him landing a strike that rocks Cummins and ends the fight shortly after.