UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC 217 Picks! This is undoubtedly one of the best cards of the year with three amazing title fights and huge prizes on DraftKings, including a $100K GPP with $20K to first place!
NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Joanna Jedrzejczyk, 9.2k
It sounds funny to say, but even priced at 9.2k, I still think Joanna Jedrzejczyk has value in her price tag. She’s a massive favorite at -750 over Rose Namajunas, and has the highest floor of any fighter on the card, all things considered.
In her last five fights, the lowest point total Jedrzejczyk has scored is 108, and that was in the lone fight she finished. In her four most recent decision victories, she has scored 140, 118, 121 and 143 points. She lands at an insane 6.87 significant strike per minute pace, and she can keep up her high pace for solid 25 minutes, which most of her opponents cannot.
Namajunas is tricky, she has some solid grappling skills, but unless she can finish this fight in the first round, I think Jedrzejczyk will slowly start to take over the fight and rack up the significant strikes. I would absolutely lock Jedrzejczyk into your cash games this weekend.
2. Curtis Blaydes, 8k
I say it all the time but trusting Vegas in the long run is a smart idea. Curtis Blaydes is entering this fight with Aleksei Oleinik as a -360 favorite, yet he’s only priced at 8k, while Oleinik is priced at 8.2k. That’s because DraftKings released the salaries prior to the odds coming out.
Oleinik has looked good lately, he’s won several fights by submission, and you may be a bit worried about Blaydes succumbing to the same result. In tournaments, I understand wanting to take an underweight approach to Blaydes, who should be heavily owned, but in cash games, it’s hard to pass up the 3rd heaviest favorite on the card for 8k.
We need to roster multiple fighters below the mid-range anyway, so why not have one of them be a massive favorite? It doesn’t take much analysis, in the long run these are plays that we need to target in cash games specifically. From a fight analysis perspective, Blaydes is the younger, more athletic fighter and the better wrestler. He should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and he should have the cardio edge in the latter rounds.
Tournament Plays
1. Paulo Borrachinha, 8.9k
This is a very clear set-up fight for the UFC, as they’ve matched up the young, hungry Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa with declining veteran Johny Hendricks, who has looked horrendous lately.
Borrachinha has flaws of his own, but we know he’s going to come forward aggressively, trying to blast Hendricks apart in the first few minutes of the fight. He’s done it successfully with two lower level opponents and there is a concern he will gas out here if Hendricks can survive the early onslaught. But I consider an early finish from Borrachinha the most likely outcome, and I don’t think Hendricks will be able to survive.
Borrachinha carries a -155 prop to finish inside the distance and a +160 prop to win inside the first round. For 8.9k, I’m absolutely willing to target Borrachinha in some tournament lineups.
2. Ricardo Ramos, 7.5k
If you are looking for a value play from a tournament perspective, I think Ricardo Ramos makes sense at 7.5k. He’s a young prospect coming off a debut win over Michinori Tanaka, and he’s facing another touted prospect in Aiemann Zahabi.
Ramos is currently a -185 favorite, but he’s priced well below the mid-range, while Zahabi is priced at 8.7k. Ramos may have some trouble on the feet here, and I still think there are some unknowns surrounding this matchup as a whole, but he’s a legitimate submission grappler and I think he fights at a higher pace than Zahabi.
If we want to pay up for the high-priced studs this week, we are going to need value plays, and I think Ramos is worth a shot in tournaments. Although I’m not expecting a finish from him, he does have an ITD prop at +191, which is strong for the price. Keep in mind he will be popular but I don’t think that should put you off him this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Stephen Thompson, 8.6k
I’m extremely worried about the fantasy potential for Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson this weekend, and I’m absolutely taking an underweight approach to him in tournaments, if not fading him outright. He’s a karate specialist, and I don’t expect to see any grappling from him against Jorge Masvidal. That limits his potential already.
But more importantly, I think he’s going to have a difficult time finishing Masvidal standing, even if he does earn the victory. Masvidal is as tough as they come, and has only been knocked out once in 44 professional fights. I understand that anything is possible, and that chins don’t last forever, but I’m not going to invest heavily in a guy like Thompson who NEEDS a knockout against a super-durable fighter like Masvidal.
For the record, I do think there’s a strong possibility Thompson wins a decision, he keeps range so well that Masvidal should have trouble closing the distance. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 70 point score from Thompson, but in tournaments that’s simply not enough.