UFC Vegas 47 Odds: Hermansson vs. Strickland Preview, Picks, and Prediction
Saturday night UFC fans will once again be treated to a fight night card held in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event will be headlined by the middleweights (185lb.). Sixth-ranked UFC middleweight contender Jack “The Joker” Hermansson has been deeply entrenched in the top 10 of the division for years now. His opponent, Sean Strickland, recently emerged as a middleweight contender in his own right. He defeated perennial gatekeeper Uriah Hall over a five-round unanimous decision to earn this step-up in competition. Strickland began his UFC campaign in the welterweight division as a scrappy 23 year old all the way back in March of 2014.
UFC Vegas 47 Main Event Preview
Strickland is nearly 31 years of age now, so he has truly grown up in the UFC. Strickland’s UFC run has been a bit stop and go because he was a middleweight prospect when he arrived in the organization, acquiring 2 wins over Bubba McDaniel and Luke Barnatt before dropping down to 170lb. He lost his welterweight debut as a -230 favorite to welterweight standout Santiago Ponzinibbio, the “Argentine Dagger,” via unanimous decision. He bounced back in the division, rattling off a three fight win streak that included a highlight reel knockout of Alex Garcia in the third round of a hard fought contest. This momentum would be halted by surging contender and eventual champion Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman. Sean would then trade wins and losses over his next three, besting Court McGee before suffering a brutal spinning head kick knockout at the hands of Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos. He would secure one final win at welterweight over Nordine Taleb before retuning to his original home in the middleweight division. Since doing so, he has rattled off four additional wins at middleweight, running his total win streak to 5 straight. Jack Marshmann was something of a pushover fight for Sean, but the Jotko, Allen, and Hall wins are sufficient evidence that he is ready for a top fifteen matchup at middleweight. Which brings us to Jack Hermansson.
Jack Hermansson debuted in the UFC in September of 2016, meaning he is a much more recent addition to the roster. However, Jack has been more active in his UFC tenure, so despite debuting almost two and a half years after Sean, he has only one less fight in the organization (14 for Sean vs. 13 for Jack). Hermansson was able to win his UFC debut against Scott Askham, but his second fight he was submitted in the second round by Cezar Ferreira in a fight where he had very limited success. He bounced back with two first round ground and pound stoppages over Alex Nicholson and Brad Scott, neither of whom were long for the organization. He would then be knocked out by Thiago Santos in the very first round of their featured bout. His next run of four fights represented the best form of his career. Firstly, he defeated Thales Leites via TKO in the third round of a fight he was losing and a fight in which he broke his rib in the first round. Jack rallied in Rd. 3 to take top position on the BJJ black belt Leites and finish him with strikes as he was exhausted. It was an inspirational comeback win from Jack (worth watching if you have never seen). However, perhaps more impressive was the fact that he followed up that win with two first round submissions over credentialed BJJ black belts in Gerald Meerschaert and David Branch. Jack Hermansson then bested Jacare Souza via decision in a five-round middleweight main event. Since then, Jack has alternated wins and losses facing the elite of the division. His two wins since 2020 are a first round heel hook submission over Kelvin Gastelum (only Jack and Chris Weidman have submitted Kelvin) and a sloppy but gritty decision victory over Edmen Shahbazyan in May of 2021. Since September of 2019, Jack has suffered a brutal KO defeat at the hands of Jared Cannonier as well as a thorough five-round decision loss to Marvin Vettori. Outside of the cage, Jack Hermansson was soundly outwrestled by UFC welterweight Khamzat Chimaev in a PPV wrestling match held in their native Sweden.
This should be an interesting style clash. Sean Strickland is a fairly upright pressure boxer with a nasty jab, solid durability, consistent forward movement, and an impressive volume of strikes. Strickland attempts nearly 14 strikes per minute spent at distance, so the longer this fight is at space, the less likely it is that Jack Hermansson will be winning. Jack attempts about 10.5 strikes per minute (- ~3strikes/minute), and nearly 20% of his strikes are low kicks. When I look at the numbers for this fight, I think they paint a fairly clear picture of what to expect in a decision victory for each fighter. If Jack is to win this fight, he will have to get off on leg kicks at a high clip, land with accuracy when he throws strikes to mitigate the volume gap, and secure takedowns and top position. Put simply, if Hermansson doesn’t get on top in this fight, his chances of winning become quite slim. Hermansson is 2-4 in UFC fights where he secures less than 60 seconds of control time. The two victories he achieved were submission victories over fighters that were on top of him (David Branch and Kelvin Gastelum). The four losses were to Thiago Santos, Marvin Vettori, Cezar Ferreira, and Jared Cannonier. 3 of those four losses would take place inside the distance, with the only decision loss coming to Marvin Vettori, a classic decision machine. Vettori actually outgrappled Hermansson, securing over 5 minutes of control time. If Sean is to win this fight, he needs to keep the fight at distance, maintain top position with proper submission defense, and sprawl and brawl. Sean has faced 39 takedown attempts so far in the UFC and has only allowed 7, and technically speaking, only 1 of the 7 was in the middleweight division (UFC debut vs. Bubba McDaniel). Sean has never been submitted in 27 professional fights, despite spending 22% of his fights in the grappling phase.
UFC 47 Odds: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Jack Hermansson and Sean Strickland are both fun action fighters, but I think that Strickland is the rightful favorite in this matchup. He opened -175 (~63.6%) and there was a steady stream of action which has pushed the market average out to -225 (~69%). However, Jack Hermansson peaked at an average odds of +182 (~35.5%) after opening up at +150 (40%). His current average price sits at +180, with the best available number being +195 (33.9%) on the BetMGM app.
Personally, if I was going to target a play on Hermansson, I would be looking at the submission prop. The sharpest sportsbooks are hanging +450 and +475 but most US domestics are still hanging +550 (~15.4%) and I think that is a bit short. Hermansson has shown he has the goods to submit even credentialed wrestlers and brazilian jiu jitsu practitioners. However, I ultimately favor Sean Strickland to keep this fight upright often enough to damage Jack Hermansson with the jab, back him into the fence, and unload on him in patient combinations. I expect that Hermansson will be rendered defensive late, if not outright finished by the volume barrage from Sean Strickland. My prediction will be a late TKO for Sean Strickland, let’s say Rd. 5. Either way, I think if Jack lasts to the bell Sean will have landed enough to secure a decision victory.
Prediction: Strickland defeats Hermansson via TKO5
Props
If you like Hermansson, Hermansson SUB is +550 (side note: fight ends by SUB is +340 if you want to cover more outcomes), SUB1 +1600, or the money line at +195. Jack can certainly make this fight competitive if he is able to get off on his takedown game, and while I rate his chances of KO’ing Strickland as quite low, the difference between the money line and the SUB/DEC double chance prop (+220) is not sufficient to target the prop instead of the money line.
If you like Sean Strickland, I would consider a small poke on his late finish props (i.e. Wins by TKO5 +2400 on FanDuel), Strickland by DEC @+195, or the Strickland wins in final round or by dec (4/5/DEC or Rd. 5/DEC) props.
I think this fight tends towards a late finish for Strickland because Jack is very tough, willing to come forward, but awkward on the feet. However, if Hermansson spends himself early pursuing wrestling and fails, it may precipitate a rapid finish for Sean as it did when the wrestling failed utterly against Jared Cannonier. More often than not, I see this fight going late (with the early finishing equity favoring Jack) and Sean pulling away over the course of the fight in volume and confidence. Jack loves to operate from a position of power, but if he is put in bad positions, he can panic at times. I would recommend approaching Strickland’s money line with some caution, as he has been a reliable favorite, but this represents an honest step up in competition against a multi-tooled threat in Hermansson. However, I think the long term seasoning of Strickland will pay off in this matchup. I expect Strickland to assert himself as a top middleweight contender with a dominant performance down the stretch on Saturday night. Whether you are rocking with me or against me, good luck on all your action!
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