UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson Quick Picks
Welcome to a foreign edition of the UFC Quick Picks! We’re in England this week for a really fun card compared to many this year, I’m excited for most of the fights and there’s plenty of money to be won on DraftKings.
I will be breaking down each and every fight in full, and I’ll be posting rankings, projections, ownerships and more in the MMA Premium section, which you can find here. I’ll also be answering all questions on Saturday before the fight in the Premium Chat. Check it out!!
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Tom Breese, $9,000
One of my favorite plays on the entire card this week is Tom Breese, who only costs 9k on DraftKings. It’s reasonably expensive, but there are four fighters more expensive than him, and he provides a nice mixture of safety and upside.
Breese is a -275 favorite with an ITD prop of -145, and most importantly, he’s fighting Oluwale Bamgbose, an athletic freak who only has a two-minute gas tank. The only part of this fight I’m at all concerned with is those first two minutes, because Bamgbose is knockout or bust. He’ll put everything he has in the tank into getting the knockout, but it’s been his athleticism that has carried him, not his technique.
I think Breese is the better overall striker and has certainly fought and beaten better competition than Bamgbose. And on the ground, Breese should have a massive advantage. My guess is that Breese will strike with Bamgbose in the first few minutes and try to wear him down, and then he’ll get the fight down late in the first or second round, and he’ll probably finish him there.
For only 9k, I think Breese should win and score well enough to be worth the risk in all formats.
2. Corey Anderson, $7,800
I’m well aware of the potentially tough matchup here for Corey Anderson, who is fighting in the main event against Jimi Manuwa Saturday in England. Anderson has a shaky chin, and he’s fighting a heavy hitter, so it’s easy to stop the analysis there and plug Manuwa into your lineups.
But in cash games, I definitely want to have Anderson in my lineups, regardless of whether I’m also playing Manuwa. Part of the reason is that there is little value on this card, and there are many matchups just like Anderson’s where the dog could easily get put away in a couple minutes. Anderson is only 7.8k though, and he’s only a +125 underdog and fighting in a five-round fight where he can rack up the strikes and takedowns, so he’s a no brainer play for me.
If Anderson can make it past the first round, he’ll very likely win the fight. He strikes at a higher pace than Manuwa and has better cardio. He also wrestles a lot which is great for DraftKings scoring, and Manuwa isn’t a good grappler, and he’s been taken down by most of his opponents. If Manuwa doesn’t win by a quick knockout, I think Anderson will score a ton of points in a decision, or potentially finish Manuwa along the way.
If you’re looking for savings in your cash games, Anderson is definitely someone you should look to.
Tournament Plays
1. Brett Johns, $9,300
The more I talk about Brett Johns, the more I’m concerned he becomes a high-owned play this week in tournaments, but I can’t ignore him. The best part of this matchup is his opponent, Ian Entwistle, who’s a leg-lock specialist and will die trying to get it.
Entwistle has never been out of the first round in 12 career fights, and he’s won nine of them. The other three were first round TKOs, and not the traditional kind. They happened as he was fighting for the leg lock and refused to let go while his opponent sat up and punched him in the face repeatedly. He does the same thing in every fight, so you know Entwistle is either winning by first round submission, or losing by an early KO.
What’s great is that these guys are small, 135ers, and generally fly under the radar. In my opinion this fight should be 90-100% owned in your teams, but the public exposure obviously won’t reach those numbers. This fight is -900 to end in a finish, the highest on the card by far, and Johns is -300 to win inside the distance as a -420 favorite.
I do think you should hedge a bit with Entwistle, who is extremely cheap and has the proven 100 point upside. He won’t be as highly owned as he should be. But I also have to favor Johns significantly, he’s the much better overall fighter and as long as he has some leg-lock defense, he’s in for a good night.
2. Darren Stewart, $8,800
This is a numbers call type of play, Darren Stewart doesn’t necessarily jump off the page to me in my research, but his numbers look great. There’s some very attractive names in the top tier of fighters, and most make for good tournament plays, but Stewart actually has the 3rd best ITD line on the entire card at -115.
I don’t think he’s going to be near the third most popular GPP play, so I’m intrigued.
He’s fighting a rematch with Francimar Barroso who is arguably my least favorite fighter ever..every time this dude is the on card something terrible happens. Last time, I forced myself into rostering Barroso against Stewart because Barroso was extremely cheap and a -160 favorite, and he fights at a weight class above Stewart who was making his UFC debut.
Two minutes into the fight Stewart headbutted Barroso, who grabbed his face in agony with both hands while Stewart proceeded to take him down and pound him out. The ref missed the headbutt, so the fight was declared a No Contest, hence the rematch. I didn’t see much from either fighter in the first fight, but Stewart did fight at a high pace and is probably more dangerous.
He’s certainly more dangerous according to Vegas, and I’m willing to take some shots on him as a lower owned tournament play, especially fighting in his home country.
Fade of the Week
1. Lina Lansberg, $9,100
Lina Lansberg has only fought once in the UFC and it was a crushing defeat against Cyborg. I can’t really blame her for that, she looked tough at least. And now she gets a sub-par newcomer in Lucie Pudilova who’s fighting on short notice.
The signs are there for her to win and she’s a -310 favorite, so she probably will. But it’s her price I do not like. More importantly, I’ve seen these two fight before, and it took all my strength not to turn it off after the first few minutes. Lansberg literally held Pudilova against the cage for 13 minutes of the fight, and if the fight was scored on DraftKings, she would have only put up a 40 spot.
That’s enough of a concern for me to avoid her at the price this weekend. Sure, she could come out there and look dominant, but she knows how to beat Pudilova, and I’m guessing she goes back to the well and drags this fight out.
Weak Chin of the Week
1. Brad Pickett
I hate to say it but Brad Pickett is this week’s weak chin, and Corey Anderson would probably be second. The point of this segment is to warn you, not necessarily tell you that I’m in love with targeting against these guys.
Pickett is fighting a retirement fight at home, so it’s hard to ignore that narrative. He’s fighting Marlon Vera and because of the chin issues, I think a lot of people will be on Vera for 8k. I can’t say I HATE him, but I don’t think he’s better than Pickett anywhere.
If Pickett doesn’t get knocked out he should win this fight in my opinion. If Vera was going to be 10% owned then I’d have heavy exposure to him, but I see him in the 30s, and that will make me shy away. However, he is an MMA fighter and is capable of landing punches, so that may be all Pickett needs to go unconscious.
Tread carefully on this fight.