UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson Beat Down
We are in the midst of a wonderful string of UFC cards, and there’s an event nearly every week until in the end of 2016. This event takes place in Hidalgo, Texas, and it’s a card for the hardcore fans, along with those of us who like to make money.
There are a ton of TUF Latin America fighters on this card, and the vast majority of these fights are coin flips, so the advantage lies to those who have done their research.
DraftKings had some fun with the pricing on this one again, so there are random values all over the place and it’s important to pay attention to the odds as the fight day gets closer. I’ve done my best to break down the matchups and give some insight into which fighters I prefer.
If you want to talk #UFCHidalgo on Twitter, you can find me at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Johnson
Fight Odds: Poirier -165, Johnson +145
Odds to finish: -215
Salaries: Poirier 10.4k, Johnson 9k
Weight Class: 155
This is an awesome main event between Dustin Poirier and Michael Johnson and I especially like it as a five-round fight. Poirier has seen a resurgence in the lightweight division, most recently knocking out trash-talking Bobby Green in the first round.
Michael Johnson was in title contention after his win over Edson Barboza, but he lost a questionable decision to Beneil Dariush and another close decision to Nate Diaz. People remember him as losing two fights in a row but losing a tough decision to Nate Diaz is nothing to be ashamed of.
Johnson comes in with a wrestling background but he’s going to want to keep the fight standing, at least in the beginning of this fight. His boxing has improved over time and it’s become his go-to option, and although he’s not the most powerful puncher in the division, he’s still a quality boxer.
Poirier’s biggest weaknesses at 145 were his striking defense and his chin, but he’s seemingly improved those dramatically in his stint at 155, at least the chin part. There’s still questions about how great his defense is, and I expect Johnson to test it early.
On the feet, I think Poirier is more diverse than Johnson, and he’s definitely more dangerous, so if there’s a finish, I think it’s likely Poirier getting the stoppage. He’s also improved as a grappler and it wouldn’t shock me to see him take the fight down if he thinks he has an advantage there too. He’s also got the cardio edge, at least on paper, and that could play a factor in this five-round fight as Johnson has slowed down in fights previous.
The match is fairly priced on DraftKings which makes things interesting. Even though neither fighter is super likely to finish quickly, this is still a fight I’m interested in both for cash games and tournaments. I prefer Poirier in this fight as I think his pace and diversity will be a bit too much for Johnson over five rounds, and I think he can score a big number even in a decision.
Fight Prediction: Poirier by Decision
Uriah Hall vs. Derek Brunson
Fight Odds: Brunson -200, Hall +170
Odds to finish: +110
Salaries: Brunson 10k, Hall 9.4k
Weight Class: 185
Derek Brunson has been on a tear in his UFC career, winning six of his past seven that only includes a loss to Yoel Romero, and he’s in the midst of three consecutive 1st round knockouts.
Uriah Hall followed up knockouts of Oluwale Bamgbose and Gegard Mousasi with a loss to Robert Whittaker, in a fight I was pretty confident he’d lose. This is a tough matchup as well, but it’s not one I’m super confident in.
Even though Brunson has been dominating in the striking as of late, I don’t think he’ll be able to put Hall away. Brunson’s not the best defensive fighter and he’s faced guys who can’t necessarily make him pay for that, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Hall land a counter strike that stuns Brunson. Where he will have an advantage is in the wrestling and even though Hall is a capable wrestler, Brunson should beat him there.
Interestingly enough, Hall has a finish prop of +278 which is better than Brunson’s of +325. This fight is priced accordingly, and if Brunson’s ceiling is limited with wrestling based gameplan, I don’t think I’ll roster him much this weekend. Hall is the better tournament option to me at 9.4k, and although I don’t think he’ll finish Brunson in this spot, it’s a realistic outcome and something I won’t ignore completely.
Fight Prediction: Brunson by Decision
Evan Dunham vs. Rick Glenn
Fight Odds: Dunham -350, Glenn +290
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Dunham 10.7k, Glenn 8.7k
Weight Class: 155
Rick Glenn is making his UFC debut on short notice, in a weight class higher than he normally competes against a legitimate gatekeeper in Evan Dunham.
Glenn is the former WSOF 145 lb. champion and he’s fought a lot of good competitors in his 22-fight career, so you can argue that Dunham won’t be a massive step up for him. But Dunham has really proven himself during his own career, and his only recent losses are to Donald Cerrone, Rafael Dos Anjos and Edson Barboza, who are all elite fighters. Sure Dunham isn’t going to beat the top five in this division, but he beats nearly everyone else.
Glenn is best on the feet, and he says he wants to finish this fight inside the first minute, which I believe because he probably doesn’t have the cardio or pace to keep up with Dunham for three rounds. I can see him hurting Dunham early, as Dunham’s been knocked out a couple times before. I can also see Dunham taking control early using his grappling, and eventually submitting Glenn once he gasses.
These fighters are surprisingly not that likely to win the fight inside the distance with props of +249 for Dunham and +436 for Glenn, but I think both make for viable tournament plays. Dunham also can strike at a crazy high rate, and he’s landed more than 120 sig. strikes in a three round fight several times before. Dunham is also a very solid value for his price and I think he’s squarely in play for cash games.
There seems to be a bit too much going against Glenn in his debut and I don’t think this is the spot for him, and he’ll probably go down to 145 after this contest and gain a few wins there. For now, I’m siding with Dunham.
Fight Prediction: Dunham by RNC, RD 2
Roan Carneiro vs. Kenny Robertson
Fight Odds: Robertson -120, Carneiro +100
Odds to finish: +100
Salaries: Carneiro 10.1k, Robertson 9.3k
Weight Class: 170
We’re not far into the fight card but we’re already into the mess of coin flip fights, and this is one between Roan Carneiro and Kenny Robertson. Carneiro is a high-level jiu-jitsu guy who won his second UFC stint debut against Mark Munoz but was knocked out quickly by Derek Brunson in fight No. 2.
Robertson is coming off a questionable loss to Ben Saunders, but he held a string of three victories in a row prior to that.
Neither fighter is spectacular but Robertson is the value here at 9.3k, and I think he’s the stronger play of the two. He also has the better ITD prop at +248, and if he keeps the fight standing, he should have an edge on Carneiro.
Carneiro should look to get the fight down but I’m not sold he’ll A) Be able to, or B) Have a huge advantage once he gets there.
Robertson is viable in cash for the value but this is probably a tournament-only fight for me and I’ll be on the side of Robertson.
Fight Prediction: Robertson by TKO, RD 2
Chris Wade vs. Islam Makhachev
Fight Odds: Makhachev -120, Wade +100
Odds to finish: +160
Salaries: Makhachev 9.8k, Wade 9.6k
Weight Class: 155
In a near coin toss fight between Chris Wade and Islam Makhachev that’s expected to go the distance, I’m not too eager to invest in either fighter. Both are priced properly so there’s no pure value, and both are grappling based which generally lowers their respective floors and ceilings.
Wade and Makhachev carry finish props of +423 and +331 respectively, which caps their upside. Makhachev is coming off a first round knockout loss, so you can argue his chin is weak and something to target, but I don’t think this is the matchup for it. Wade isn’t a heavy hitter and I don’t expect him to have a huge advantage on the feet.
Wade is coming off a loss to Rustam Khabilov who fights similarly to Makhachev, and I’d look toward that fight for a potential comp. I’m not expecting this fight to end quickly, so I’m not going to test the waters in tournaments, and I don’t think either fighter provides enough safety to target in cash games.
Fight Prediction: Makhachev by Decision
Chas Skelly vs. Maximo Blanco
Fight Odds: Skelly -190, Blanco +165
Odds to finish: -175
Salaries: Skelly 10.3k, Blanco 9.1k
Weight Class: 145
Another fight that could play out in a number of ways, Chas Skelly and Maximo Blanco look to get back in the win column against one another.
Blanco is a fantastic athlete and a very strong wrestler, but his fight IQ is historically low and it has cost him in the past. He often has no gameplan and chooses to take the hardest path to victory. He also hits really hard and I think he’ll look to keep the fight standing in this one.
Skelly is primarily a wrestler/grappler but he got severely outclassed against Darren Elkins last time out, getting taken down seven times and allowing 104 significant strikes. Elkins is a tough matchup for most fighters though, and I don’t think Blanco brings the same pressure.
Skelly has also been rocked in the past and I see that as a potential route to victory for Blanco. I also see Skelly being able to finish Blanco on the ground if he can get the fight there, which I’m honestly not confident of.
Vegas likes this fight to finish as a whole but Skelly specifically has a nice prop of +154, which is one of the higher props on the card. For 10.3k, I think he’s definitely in play for tournaments. I don’t hate Blanco but his prop of +495 isn’t very intriguing. This is a fight I definitely want some exposure to in tournaments, and I’ll probably find myself with a fair share of Skelly this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Skelly by RNC, RD 2
UNDERCARD
Gabriel Benitez vs. Sam Sicilia
Fight Odds: Sicilia -160, Benitez +140
Odds to finish: -155
Salaries: Sicilia 11.2k, Benitez 8.2k
Weight Class: 145
This is a similar fight to the Perez vs. Morales fight that we’ll discuss later, as both Gabriel Benitez and Sam Sicilia are terribly mispriced. Sicilia is the -160 favorite but he’s priced as the most expensive fighter at 11.2k. Benitez is only a +140 dog but he’s the cheapest fighter at 8.2k.
Even if I liked Sicilia from a pure matchup perspective, he’s completely off the board for cash games and he’s tough to consider for tournaments. He really needs a first round finish to be on the winning lineup, and although his ITD prop of +167 is enticing, 11.2k is too much.
Benitez wasn’t super high on my radar, but at 8.2k, as a +140 dog with an ITD prop of +281, he’s in play in all formats.
Sicilia has been around for a while now and although he used to be a pure knockout puncher, he’s been leaning on his wrestling lately and I think that’s where he’ll go in this spot against Benitez, who’s a much better striker than he his a grappler. Outside of a slick guillotine choke, Benitez isn’t the greatest ground fighter, so I expect Sicilia to have advantages there.
Sicilia was knocked out by Doo Ho Choi in his last bout and he’s been finished several times in his career, so it’s not out of the question that Benitez could put him away one way or another. If you want to pay for Sicilia as a pure contrarian play based on his finish prop, I get it, but I won’t be on him.
Fight Prediction: Sicilia by Decision
Augusto Montano vs. Belal Muhammad
Fight Odds: Muhammad -400, Montano +325
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Muhammad 10.2k, Montano 9.2k
Weight Class: 170
If you didn’t watch Belal Muhammad’s UFC debut against Alan Jouban, you should go back and find it because it was an impressive performance. Muhammad was rocked several times and hurt pretty badly in the first couple rounds, but he came on really strong and lit Jouban up in the final few minutes.
Of course, that’s what everyone is remembering and I think it’s a big reason why the odds are so wide, but I’m a little concerned.
Muhammad was dropped literally three times early on in his debut, and although he recovered, I have no doubt he’s going to get knocked out sooner or later. In 10 pro fights, Muhammad has only finished the fight three times, and I don’t think he’s that heavy of a hitter.
Montano is a 15-2 with all 15 wins coming by finish, including 10 TKOs and five submissions, and most have occurred in the first round. He’s also never been finished. He doesn’t strike often but when he does, it’s usually an attempt at a knockout. His knees are explosive and he has a killer instinct, but he can literally go minutes without attempting a shot. He’ll also be the much bigger fighter in the cage.
This looks like a trap spot to me so let’s break it down from a DraftKings perspective.
Muhammad is a very strong value at 10.2k based on the odds, and I like him for cash games. He’s moderately aggressive and his finish prop of +165 is more than enough to target.
At 9.2k, with a low output, I can’t play Montano in cash games, but I will definitely be on him in tournaments. I expect Muhammad to be pretty popular and I think there’s a reasonable chance he gets put away. There’s also a reasonable chance he wins a point fight decision.
It’s hard to argue with the pure value on Muhammad but this isn’t a spot I love him in, so use with caution in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Muhammad by Decision
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Leonardo Leleco
Fight Odds: Junior -240, Leleco +200
Odds to finish: -230
Salaries: Junior 9.9k, Leleco 9.5k
Weight Class: 185
Antonio Carlos Junior is a real head-scratcher of a fighter because on paper he’s a blue chip prospect and someone who could compete for a title down the road, but he’s had some shaky performances in the Octagon.
Most recently, Junior got TKOd in the third round by 40-year-old ex-olympian Daniel Kelly, but Junior should have won that fight and came into the contest as a -500 favorite. He’s a world class jiu-jitsu practitioner and very solid athlete, but he’s still raw on the feet and overall in MMA.
This is another spot where he should get his hand raised against Leonardo Leleco, but there’s reason to be cautious. Leleco is a talented bjj grappler as well and a tough guy to finish. He’s also resilient and hits pretty hard.
He does however lack a bit in cardio and takedown defense, and he’s going to be at a disadvantage if this fight gets to the ground. Leleco fought Anthony Smith in his UFC debut, and even though Smith is not known as a wrestler, he tossed Leleco around a bit. I think Junior should be able to get the fight down early, and I’m pretty confident he’ll take Leleco’s back from there.
My gut says that Junior spends at least three minutes on the back of Leleco in the first round, so I don’t need to explain more as to why you should target him in cash games. The biggest concern is that he won’t land many significant strikes, so his overall floor is low, and that makes it tough to look his way in cash games, even at a massive price value. I think you can do it, but it’s not a must play.
Leleco makes for an interesting tournament play, but I don’t think I can pull the trigger on a guy who I expect to handily lose the early part of the fight. His upside is a third round finish in my opinion, which would be enough in tournaments, but it’s a risk I don’t think I’m willing to take.
Fight Prediction: Junior by RNC, RD 1
Jose Quinonez vs. Joey Gomez
Fight Odds: Gomez -160, Quinonez +140
Odds to finish: -160
Salaries: Quinonez 10.5k, Gomez 8.9k
Weight Class: 135
This is an interesting spot for Jose Quinonez and Joey Gomez, especially because the odds and pricing don’t agree. Gomez is a -160 favorite and priced at 8.9k, while Quinonez is a +140 dog and priced at 10.5k.
Immediately that puts Gomez squarely in play for cash games and tournaments, and I think he’s going to be popular.
Gomez was 6-0 entering the UFC with six knockouts but he got TKOd in his debut against Rob Font. People really like him for some reason though, and while this isn’t a bad matchup, I think people may be overestimating Gomez a bit.
From the tape I’ve watched, including his debut, he’s not that great of a range striker. He has decent mechanics and he hits pretty hard, but he doesn’t move his head at all, and he’s fairly predictable. The three TKOs I’ve watched outside the UFC came when 1) He elbowed a guy in the head who was trying to take him down against the cage, 2) He elbowed a guy from top side control after his opponent fell trying to take the back, and 3) He punched a guy in the face who dove in for a takedown. It’s not like he’s dominating range strikers and I think it makes sense why he got beat up badly in his debut.
Quinonez isn’t a talented range striker, so if you thought I was going that route…sorry. He is however more talented than probably all of Gomez’ former opponents, especially on the ground. He’s super aggressive and I think he could cause trouble early. Quinonez doesn’t have the best striking defense and he’s still raw, but I think Gomez is raw too. One of Gomez’ best attributes is his ability to scramble. He gets taken down a lot but he’s hard to keep down. I think Quinonez can get him the ground early, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to secure a top position.
With a finish prop of +147 and as a moderate favorite, there’s no reason to avoid Gomez if you like him. I will definitely have shares of him. But with his potentially high ownership, I do think there’s a fade opportunity there, especially with the reasons I brought up earlier, which summarize as “I don’t know if he’s actually that good..”.
I am hesitant on the overall skills of Gomez and I think Quinonez makes for a nice contrarian play for the quick submission upside, but fading this fight as a whole is a decent tournament strategy as well.
Fight Prediction: Quinonez by Decision
Erick Montano vs. Randy Brown
Fight Odds: Brown -470, Montano +375
Odds to finish: -185
Salaries: Brown 10.9k, Montano 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
Erick “The other brother” Montano gets his second crack in the UFC against Randy Brown, who came from the TV show “Looking for a Fight.” Brown won his debut against Matt Dwyer but fell by submission to Michael Graves in his most recent bout.
Brown is the heaviest favorite on the card, but he’s actually priced like it somewhat at 10.9k. Still, he has an inside distance prop of -130 and it looks like a matchup he should definitely earn a victory in.
Montano isn’t really good at anything, so I’m not sure where his advantages would lie in this fight. Brown is much bigger and has a five-inch reach advantage which should help him on the feet. My concern with Brown is that he’s not the highest output striker, and Montano is tough, so it wouldn’t shock me to see this fight end in a decision.
Brown is much more of a kicking based fighter so I expect him to use that range to beat up Montano, while Montano looks to get the fight to the ground and expose Brown’s weak submission game. The problem is that I don’t think Montano can get and hold Brown down.
For the odds value and pure matchup, I think Brown makes for a good play in all formats. Montano wining inside the distance is +672 and he’s way overvalued even at his low price, so I won’t be touching him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Brown by TKO, RD 2
Alejandro Perez vs. Albert Morales
Fight Odds: Perez -120, Morales +100
Odds to finish: -115
Salaries: Perez 11k, Morales 8.4k
Weight Class: 135
The unfortunate part of DraftKings dramatically mispricing fighters is that it takes many out of play immediately. If the heaviest favorite on the card was priced higher than 11k, there would still be some reason to play him/her, but when you price a -120 favorite at 11k, it’s tough to consider them at all.
Alejandro Perez is a well-rounded fighter coming off an impressive TKO victory against the leg-locker in Ian Entwistle, but he’s not known as a finisher. Even with a finish prop of +219, I don’t think he’s worth paying for because unless he gets that quick knockout, he won’t be on the winning lineup.
Albert Morales is making his debut, and he looks like a solid athlete with skills all around, and it says a lot that he’s only a +100 dog against the more experienced Perez. Morales fought one of my old teammates in Kurt Weinrich not too long ago, and won with an impressive submission and ground-and-pound, but if I’m being honest, Weinrich is 100 percent a stand-up fighter and not someone to compare yourself to on the ground.
I question the overall level of Morales opponents coming into the UFC, and not that Perez is going to be a killer in this division, but he’s probably the best fighter Morales has faced.
I expect this fight to be close but I’m giving the edge to Perez on experience. Still, I don’t think you can pay for him outside of a contrarian dart. Morales is in play at 8.4k because he’s only a +100 dog with a finish prop of +207. I’m fine with him in either format based on his pure value.
Fight Prediction: Perez by Decision