UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Rotterdam Quick Picks! We are finally back after a month off and while this card isn’t the greatest, it only gets better from here. DraftKings has already posted major GPPs for next week’s UFC 215 card, and there are several major events left in 2017.
Still, there is more than $100k up for grabs this weekend as we get a nice Saturday morning card, so let’s get to it!
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Abdul-Kerim Edilov, $9,500
It’s not too tough to decipher the clear-cut top play of the weekend, it’s Abdul-Kerim Edilov for 9.5k. He’s the most expensive fighter on the card, but he’s coming in as a -720 favorite, with a -400 line to win inside the distance.
The basic reasoning behind this line is that Edilov is taking on Bojan Mihajlovic, who’s arguably the worst fighter in the UFC. Mihajlovic was brought in originally to lose to Francis Ngannou, which he did via KO early in the fight, and he also lost via TKO to Joachim Christensen.
Edilov is making his UFC debut, but he’s a decent prospect, a strong submission grappler, and simply better than Mihajlovic. Could something crazy happen here? I guess so, but it’s not something I’m willing to invest any money in. Edilov should be the better fighter and he has tremendous value on his salary, and I do think he comes away with a clear victory. For his safety, I want him in my cash lineups this weekend.
2. Bryan Barberena, $7,200
My favorite underdog play of the week is Bryan Barberena, who comes in at 7.2k on DraftKings. He opened near +300, but has since climbed back toward +200, but more importantly, I like his matchup with Leon Edwards.
Edwards is a decent striker, probably more technical than Barberena and has power in his hands, but he throws at a really low rate. Barberena lands more than five significant strikes per minute in the UFC and brings a tremendous pace, so I expect him to win the majority of standup over the course of 15 minutes.
Edwards has developed a wrestling game but I don’t think he has the tools to take Barberena down 10 times and hold him there.
This is by no means a lock of a matchup for Barberena, but I like his chances to hit value this week and I think he’s a solid cash game play.
Tournament Plays
1. Michel Prazeres, $9,400
Priced just below Edilov is Michel Prazeres at 9.4k, and I think he makes for a strong pivot in tournaments. He won’t be as popular as Edilov and his ITD line is only +146, but I like his ability to accumulate points before finishing.
Edilov might literally get one takedown and earn a submission, which would score less than 100 points. Prazeres has a tougher opponent and that could lead to Prazeres landing five takedowns, getting a few passes and a submission late, which would likely score more than 100 points.
Prazeres opponent has had all his success through offensive wrestling and grappling and I just don’t think he’s likely to get by Prazeres with those skills, Prazeres is a tough wrestler and should have advantages everywhere the fight goes.
There’s a bit of risk here, but I think the upside on Prazeres is high and I will have moderate exposure to him in tournaments.
2. Siyar Bahadurzada, $8,300
There are honestly a handful of fighters I considered in this spot, but my second tournament choice is Siyar Bahadurzada. It’s a risk in a sense but I think Bahadurzada has upside, and Vegas agrees. He carries an ITD prop of +112 which is one of the better lines on the entire card, and he’s only priced at 8.3k.
He’s fighting Rob Wilkinson, a newcomer off the Australian regional circuit. From what I can tell, Wilkinson will need to get the fight down to win, and if he’s not able to, he’s going to have to stand and trade. Bahadurzada is the better, more technical, more powerful striker and I think he can hurt and finish Wilkinson.
There’s nothing to be confident about in the mid-range this week, but I think Bahadurzada is one fighter you should get some exposure to this weekend.
Weak Chins of the Week
Andrew Holbrook and Thibault Gouti
There are some obvious weak chins this week, and oddly enough, they are facing each other! Andrew Holbrook has fought four times in the UFC and while he has won two split decisions, he has also been knocked out in the first minute in his other two fights.
The first time it happened, I wasn’t too concerned, but the second time was against a low-power striker in Gregor Gillespie, and I think it’s obvious his chin just isn’t there.
Gouti is 0-3 in the UFC and has been finished in all three fights, twice by knockout. To be fair, one fight was against Chad Laprise who is actually a technical boxer, but his debut against Teemu Packalen was alarming.
I do think there’s a good chance one of these two fighters gets hurt and stopped before the final bell, and I think both make for strong plays in tournaments. Most people will look at the downside and risk and avoid them, but there is certainly upside in this matchup.
Fade of the Week
1. Desmond Green, $7,100
It’s rare I choose an underdog as my fade of the week, but I’ve been hearing some chatter on Desmond Green this week, and I just don’t think he’s a great fantasy asset. His only UFC fight was a victory against Josh Emmett, and it was a fairly impressive victory.
Now he’s facing Rustam Khabilov who is on another level, and I think it will be difficult for him to win, and accrue many fantasy points. Green is a low output striker but he can compete with Khabilov. That’s his best bet to win. But I don’t think he can score well enough on striking alone, he will need to win some of the grappling exchanges.
Khabilov has only been taken down three times in his nine-fight UFC career and I don’t think Green will land more than one. So realistically, I find it difficult for Green to pass 70 points without finishing. And his odds to finish are +965, which are horrendous.
He may pull off a decision win, but if he’s going to be moderately owned I’d much rather take chances on high-upside, lower-owned targets than “hope” to score a whopping 70 points.