World Cup Daily Plays: July 4th, 2014
Ok, this is probably (personally) my last piece of this World Cup, so let me really sell Friday for you: even more than perhaps the last Friday of group play that the US played a part in, perhaps even more than the day earlier in the week that will not be spoken of, the 4th could have genuine fireworks. The quarterfinals begin on Friday with a pair, on paper, of Grade A matchups that have the possibility to give us here a case of amnesia and the perfect companion to that burger.
Our sponsor StatClash is offering both one and two day games that begin on Friday in GPP games from $1 to $100. DraftStreet will continue to offer just one-day games, with players from the following four teams available.
Schedule for Friday, July 4th:
- France vs. Germany, 12pm EST
- Brazil vs. Colombia, 4pm EST
France
At this point, it’s best that the France/Germany match begins the day because of this: Brazil and Colombia’s lineups are pretty set. We’ll go into those teams later.
France could have some changes in its starting lineup, as Didier Deschamps looks to put together a starting eleven that can try and take advantage of their opponents weakness: Germany’s backline can be opened up with speed, especially their outside backs. While I’m not buying into any outbreak in the German camp (sore throats abound, apparently), Jogi Loew is sticking to his guns: four central defenders across the back.
If Deschamps decides to start the diminutive, yet creative and fleet of foot pair of Antoine Griezmann and Mathieu Valbuena alongside in attack, France is playing the gambit that movement and speed like Ghana showed versus Germany in the group stage could be an Achilles heel. The midfield should remain the same; Paul Pogba can either be a game-winning dynamo or a liability—which one shows? He’ll be flanked by Yohan Cabaye and Blaise Matuidi; all three are rather hit and miss, with Pogba having the most upside.
One change is likely for France in the back; Laurent Koscielny is set to be replaced by Mamadou Sakho, who’s getting over a hamstring injury. Sakho and Raphael Varane aren’t the options I’d take, especially with a lack of a clean sheet in the offing. However, the outside back tandem of Patrice Evra and Mathieu Debuchy are better options. If France is able to get forward and overlap against Germany’s backline on the outside, both could get chances to play provider.
Hugo Lloris is a pretty good play on Friday; he’s not going to get a clean sheet, but his day should be pretty busy. There should be a handful of chances, but I’d go elsewhere—either go with his opposite number in this game, or go cheap with Colombia’s David Ospina.
With the four team pool, subs might need to come into play in your lineup: Olivier Giroud is a good valued based option as he hits the pine for Griezmann, The only other option, if you’re trying to find a contrarian and/or value choice to fill out your roster, is Loic Remy. Remy will be the second option in attack, but if France is chasing the game, he might see time, especially if Deschamps wants a bigger/more physical option in attack.
Germany
Loew’s starting lineup is more in question. There will be changes, especially with Shkodran Mustafi out for the remainder of the tournament. Phillip Lahm is likely to convert to right back, but keep an eye out for the starting lineup before the match. Lahm could continue in central midfield, but Loew should include Sami Khedira in the middle of the park alongside Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos. The latter two will be more advanced, so Khedira is useable only if you’re trying to fit a salary in.
If I’m looking for defenders scoring off set pieces, Mats Hummels and Per Mertesacker could get their chances for Deutschland. Mesut Ozil hasn’t had a great tournament, but he seemingly will remain in the starting lineup while Andre Schurrle may take Mario Gotze’s place in the starting 11. That Thomas Muller guy will start; you may want to use him, he’s a decent finisher.
Gotze and Miroslav Klose are definite options as choices in your lineups, even though they won’t start. Lucas Podolski is also available after missing Germany’s win against Algeria with a thigh injury. Germany’s the favorite, and Manuel Neuer is a large reason why. The keeper is the highest cost option in net for Friday, but those in DFS that are looking for a clean sheet should look Neuer’s way. He’s got the ability to dominate a game akin to Tim Howard; while he won’t see the sheer numbers, he’s one if not the best goalie in the world.
Brazil
There’s one enforced change to Phil Scolari’s starting lineup from the team that barely squeaked past Chile. Midfielder Luiz Gustavo is suspended for the quarterfinal against Colombia due to accumulation of yellow cards, and either former incumbent starter Paulinho or Ramires will get the nod. The latter is more of an attacker, so Paulinho is the more likely candidate to partner Ferninandho as the underheralded piece of Brazil’s lineup—the pair that protects the back four.
There’s a lot of indications that the pressure is getting to the Selecao; Scolari told Brazilian journalists to “go to hell” on Thursday, psychologists have been called in to help the home team and betting favorites through the pitfalls of the knockout stages. The attack is seemingly in stone on Scolari’s lineup sheet. As ineffective as he’s been so far in this tournament, Fred still is the lead striker for Brazil. It’s hard to totally fade him out of the picture, because the day you do could be the time he puts away two or three. GPP fodder, at the very least. Hulk and Oscar are better bets, but both can and have disappeared in Brazilian wins. And while Neymar is dinged up a bit, he remains the clear focus and is in the top tier of choices on Friday.
The defense and keeper for Brazil is perhaps the toughest decision to make for DFS players Friday. The central partnership of David Luiz and Thiago Silva has played very well so far, and they do have the ability to shut down Colombia’s attack, James Rodriguez or no. They, and keeper Julio Cesar, have the ability to keep a clean sheet—but I’m hesistant to feature them in too many of my cash lineups. Speed kills, and Colombia has that in spades. The outside backs are better bets, with Marcelo and Dani Alves having a much bigger part going forward. The flanks are going to be a treat to watch; will those two be able to keep Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado at bay?
Ramires is likely the first option off the bench for Scolari, especailly in midfield. He can be used to protect a lead or offer a more attacking option in place of Paulinho or Fernandinho. Willian is another, while if Fred gets taken off, Jo is his likely replacement. Avoid Jo at all costs; GPP play perhaps, but he can’t be trusted with any level of authority he’ll return your investment.
Colombia
More than the hosts, the Colombians have been the overall darlings of this tournament. Solid in the back, spectatular in attack, with perhaps the player of the World Cup so far in Rodriguez.
There is no likely changes in the starting 11 for Jose Pekerman; the epitome of if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The aforementioned Ospina is my choice of the day in net; he’ll see some action but does have the ability to put up save totals and a clean sheet. Mario Yepes is the relative weak link at central defense, but neither Fred nor Hulk are the fleetest of foot. Colombia will have to avoid too many one-on-one showdowns between Yepes and Neymar. Yepes’ partner Cristian Zepata has been superb, overshadowed by his teammates in attack. Both are decently priced on StatClash and DraftStreet, but the outside backs are where it’s at. As much as Marcelo and Alves get forward, Pablo Armero and Juan Zuniga get involved in the attack just as much.
Midfield anchors Abel Aguilar and Carlos Sanchez are to avoid DFS wise unless really needed in a salary crunch. Neither get forward much, and will likely be needed to guard the back four. Of course, Cuadrado and Rodriguez are where it’s at. both are pricey, but can be fit into the same lineup at StatClash in combination with a Neymar, Pogba or other options.
In attack, it’s boom or bust. Both Teofilo Gutierrez and Jackson Martinez could explode for Colombia if the midfield become more provider than finishers as a whole, and their speed could cause problems for Luiz and Silva. Colombia hasn’t had to depend on their bench that much in this tournament; Adrian Ramos will be the first striker off the bench if Colombia needs goals. The future Dortmund striker might be worth a roll of the dice, especially in a DraftStreet salary crunch. Juan Quintero is another attacking option for Pekerman as a sub, a likely replacement for Aguilar or Sanchez if behind.