World Cup Daily Plays: June 25th, 2014
Thursday’s World Cup slate is huge for a few reasons, right?
Besides (most of us) wanting the United States to advance into the Round of 16, there’s the little matter of DraftStreet’s $100,000 Big Score. Besides their normal slate of H2H and GPPs, the winner of the Big Score takes home $20,000, by far the biggest single winning prize of World Cup DFS play. Let’s also not forget our partner StatClash, who have a wide array of games as well.
I’m going to stray a bit from the normal positional breakdown and go from team to team, all eight, and go through my mindset on each. I’ve got entries into the Big Shot, this is how I’ll be putting together my teams.
Games on Monday
- Germany vs. USA, 12:00PM EST
- Ghana vs. Portugal, 12:00PM EST
- Belgium vs. South Korea, 4:00PM EST
- Algeria vs. Russia, 4:00pm EST
Germany
Of course, the first two games gives us players the advantage of knowing the starting lineups for four of the eight teams. Group G starts the festivities on Thursday, so those burned in the days prior with the Girouxes, Valbuenas, et al of the world might skew to the early matches to fill their squads.
Both Jogi Loew and Jurgen Klinsmann are swearing to anyone that will listen that both teams will gun for three points, top of the group and advancement into the round of 16—even through a draw between the two would see both through.
Manuel Neuer is a pretty strong play; while the German backline is susceptible to speed and the counterattack, as Ghana showed, the US does not really have that kind of burner to get around Per Mertesacker or Mats Hummels. Yes, the outside backs are central defenders for their club teams and could get burned. Neuer’s one of the best in the world and there’s a real good chance Germany shut out the United States—as much as that hurts to see.
Philipp Lahm has been reassigned (on DraftStreet) to defender status, so that clean sheet bonus is on the table. But his salary ($9,234), at least to my mind, is not worth that extra two points—especially if Loew does not use him at midfield in reality. The rest of the likely starters are in that $5-6k range, and are options. Hummels is excellent on set pieces. Bastian Schweinsteiger (in for the injured Sami Khedira) is an excellent way to go in my mind; at under $12k on DraftStreet, he’s an excellent mid-level option, the kind of guy who could kill with a late run into the box to put away a cross.
For the rest of the German options in midfield and attack, you’re definitely playing for the pleasure of their figurative company. Mesut Ozil has had an extremely quiet World Cup; at just under $17k on DraftStreet, if you choose him, it’s clearly a contrarian play. Toni Kroos is a better inclusion; he’s willing to shoot on sight. able to play that pass over or through a suspect American backline and almost two thousand less than Ozil. Thomas Muller is the second costliest option on the entire board, and despite a facial injury is expected to play. If you’re going to spend on the top ten options in attack, Muller’s the way to go. If Germany is in fifth gear, he could have a field day. For the US to succeed, they’re going to need to choke off service to Muller. Their and possibly your success could depend on it. Mario Gotze also is another excellent option, for under $16K.
United States
Let’s start with the man that is likely going to have another REALLY busy day. With four and two points in his first two games, Tim Howard looks like the best option to have the World Cup DFS day that goalies are having—positive points from sheer workload. Howard could have a handful of saves that outpoints goals against, and he could even chip in with a win bonus if the US surprises. He’s affordable at just over $16k. There are only two real defensive options, and both are not all that palatable. Fabien Johnson is relatively expensive, and likely only to earn his $7.2k salary if he picks up an assist paired with shots on goal/fouls drawn. If you go bargain basement, you have Matt Besler to allow you to spend in other places.
The midfield is almost untouchable for me. Michael Bradley’s salary requires at least a goal to return value. Personally, I’m hoping (and expecting) Bradley to play his best game of the three—but a goal is unlikely. Jermaine Jones and Graham Zusi are mid-level options that could help balance your team out; Jones had an assist against Ghana and that bullet against Portugal. But I see Jones in a more defensive role trying to distrupt Kroos and Schweinsteiger and may not get the chances on net unless the US are playing from behind. Zusi has an assist in both games and could grab another since he is the primary corner taker for the American team. At just over $10k on DraftStreet, you can use him to counterbalance more expensive purchases or be a part of an American stack.
The early start allows you to see if Jurgen Klinsmann starts a second forward against Germany; the odds are against Aron Johannsson and Chris Wondolowski starting. Only the strong of stomach and the desperate to fit in a low salary will use either, especially if they start on the bench. However, both would likely see PT in the second half if the US is behind. And on the next note, I hope I’m really wrong, but I’m fading Clint Dempsey and won’t likely use him in H2H or GPP games. Dempsey has played well and given all, especially out of position against Portugal. He’s likely to play the same role against Germany, and is should be the focus of German defensive planning. He really needs support to make an impact in this game; hopefully, Klinsmann gives him that with a second striker. I’m definitely not rostering him if he is a lone striker in a 4-5-1/4-2-3-1 formation.
Portugal
That sound you hear is the full strength fade alarm when it comes to Selecção das Quinas. With really little to play for, the chances Portugal packs it in early are high, especially if Ghana scores in the first half. The only hope for worth is Portugal, again, taking an early lead and continually thwarting Ghana by staying back in numbers and avoiding Ghana’s dangerous counterattack.
Beto, like Howard, is probably going to be a very busy man. The chances for a win bonus are low; a clean sheet, slim at best. But the saves may outweigh the goals against. At $16,498, his salary is relatively high and other options look to be better on the surface. I would not touch a Portugese defender: Joao Pereira and Pepe are too expensive unless you want to skimp in midfield and attack, and a clean sheet bonus is unlikely.
William is an excellent play if he starts in midfield, especially at $9,734 on DraftStreet. He’s talented, potentially on the verge of a big money move this summer from Sporting Lisbon. This is his spotlight, if he starts—90 minutes to prove to the top tier of European teams to bring him on board. The rest of the viable Portuguese options in midfield are either too expensive for the return they are likely to give for their individual price tags.
I really can’t see Cristiano Ronaldo playing to his ability. He’s clearly not 100% physically, and that bleeds over to his body language and willingness to play hard for 90 minutes. Add into the mix the top salary of the day at DraftStreet, and CR7 is at best a GPP play, a contrarian option. Play at your own risk. Eder’s a potential value option; in the scheme of things, he really only needs one goal to pay off. He had his chances against the US, and is a certain start against Ghana. Their defense can be taken advantage of.
Ghana
I’m very intrigued in Ghana on Thursday, especially in their front six. Sulley Muntari is suspended for this match, so both Emmanuel Badu and Mohammed Rabiu are excellent, low priced options. Christian Atsu and either Andre Ayew are higher in cost, but both have excellent upside. Up top, Asamoah Gyan is a pretty solid 1A option at forward while either Jordan Ayew or Kevin Prince-Boateng would be off-the-radar options, but the latter might be benched due to personal issues if reports are to be believed.
Harrison Afful is a pretty decent option in defense, especially because of his price and the possibility he plays against Miguel Veloso, a midfielder, as a makeshift left back for Portugal. If Portugal packs it in early, Ghana could get a clean sheet—which would include keeper Adam Kwarasey. Under $15k on DraftStreet, Kwarasey could see a pretty healthy percentage owned, especially in GPPs.
Belgium
The Red Devils are really underperforming, especially in DFS. Romelu Lukaku has really struggled, and even Eden Hazard has struggled—despite scoring 2.7 and 4.7 points respectively in Belgium’s first two matches. At $18.3k, it’s an awfully high price to bet on Hazard, even against what’s proved to be a porous South Korean defense. On the other hand, this might be a perfect time for the pair to spring to life against an inferior opponent. If you’re willing to bet on that, you may be rewarded handsomely.
The rest of the squad, I can leave on the table. The defenders are pricey relative to options from other teams, even if they are odds-on favorite to keep a clean sheet from all teams on Thursday. If you want top shelf attackers, it’s going to be tough to roster names like Vincent Kompany. The most expensive keeper on the day is Thibaut Courtois; he seems to be more of a H2H option than GPP. The only way to roster him is either go sub-10k in your midfield, or avoid using Ronaldo/Muller/Hazard/etc.
South Korea
It’s really tough to see any Korean option earning their value against Belgium. Heung-Min Son is the team’s best attacker, but at $14k is relatively pricey and must score to earn that salary. Sung-Ryong Jung could see that shots saved “bump” in goal, and is the likely cheapest option of a starting keeper. But Jung, if Belgium has a big day, could see negative numbers. If you need a cheaper forward, Keun-Ho Lee is a viable option at just over $11k. Otherwise, it’s tough to justify picking anyone else.
Russia
One of the “other” red, white and blues in the tournament have to win in their final match to advance. This should see Fabio Capello start an “attacking” lineup, of which Russia has little of an arsenal to go forward with.
I can’t, for example, see starting Igor Akinfeev in goal for your entry, nor any defender. Alan Dzagoev is the best option you might have in a Russian lineup for a midfielder, but he’s not a certain start even with Russia needing a win.
Algeria
The real unknown of the day. If you get the team that faced and demolished Korea, and you choose the right options, you’ll profit because of their inexpensive price tags. If not, you’ll suffer. I’m definitely not expecting a clean sheet from this team, but Rais M’Bolhi could see some action and may surprise if Russian sputters offensively. The outside back tandem of Aissa Mandi and Djamel Mesbah are inexpensive and could be decent options, but both only started Algeria’s second game and are not certain starters.
Going forward is where the intrigue lies. Yacine Brahimi and Nabil Bentaleb are both options at less than $10.5k, while Islam Slimani and Sofiane Feghouli are excellent second forwards and/or flex choices.