World Cup Daily Plays: June 29th, 2014
Two games, four teams, and hopefully a repeat of one great slate on Saturday. It’s a shame that the only team that has announced its lineup so far, as they have done throughout this tournament, is Mexico. They are in the early game, so we would have known their lineup before kickoff anyways. We’ll go over the four teams and where your best options in each lay.
Games on Sunday
- Holland vs. Mexico, 12:00PM EST
- Costa Rica vs. Greece, 4:00PM EST
Holland
Going into this game, Holland and Louis van Gaal have taken an unusual tact—almost painting themselves as an underdog, complaining about the potential heat and humidity in Fortaleza, reports of numerous injured players, and so on. Playing possum, perhaps?
Van Gaal and Holland should have their hands full with Mexico, but they’re not underdogs. Midfield sub Leroy Fer is out for this match, while defender Bruno Martins Indi supposedly isn’t fit enough to start but will be available off the bench. Indi could make a miraculous recovery to be in the first 11; we’ll know come 11am Eastern.
Several starters didn’t go the full 90, if at all, in Holland’s last group game. Let’s start with the back—the starting four should remain Daley Blind, Stefan de Vrij, Ron Vlaar and Daryl Janmaat. Using the four is a mixed bag, especially depending what site you’re using. Blind and Janmaat, the erstwhile outside backs, are midfielders on StatClash, removing any potential clean sheet bonus. Janmaat and Vlaar are around $4.5k on Draftstreet, and pretty decent value plays. They, and keeper Jasper Cillessen, are solid plays. Cillessen is affordable on both DraftStreet and StatClash.
Holland’s midfield is mostly used to shield the backline; Jonathan de Guzman and Nigel de Jong both know their jobs and do them well. Both are completely unsexy choices and have relatively low ceilings. Goals? Look elsewhere. Hope for an assist at best, but they’re usable to put your salary in other options.
The front three are high upside, high cost options. Arjen Robben’s health is a bit worry, having trained separately from the rest of the team since the Chile win. He and Robin van Persie are excellent options, easily the most dependable choices on both sites. They’re also expensive. Building a DraftStreet lineup with both in there requires a lot of bargain shopping elsewhere; you can add one more purchase around $15-16k (not including the keeper) and shoot for the moon elsewhere. Memphis Depay is the option off the bench for the Dutch; at $14,435, he’s the contrarian play, with your hopes centered around a counterattacking goal.
Going with this high priced plan requires you to a) make the right choices elsewhere, and b) hope that the dynamic duo (bad pun, I know) don’t lay an egg. Don’t put all of your….eggs…in one Dutch basket. But put some of your cash in a Dutch stack, especially in GPPs.
Mexico
Ah, Mexico. Dependable El Tri—perhaps the most surprising adjective you could use a few weeks ago. Miguel Herrera has really done well with this team, and hasn’t shuffled the deck at all—until this round of 16 match. Jose Juan Vazquez is suspended for this one, with veteran Carlos Salcido replacing the former at defensive midfield in Herrera’s 5-3-2. The decision to start Salcido is a curious one, with a low ceiling. Salcido does love to shoot from distance, so there’s a small chance you hit gold with a really cheap cost. On the other hand, he’s likely the first substitute off if Mexico is trailing.
Guillermo Ochoa will be a popular option, even as an underdog. In the best case scenario, Ochoa sees a lot of action, a handful of saves like Claudio Bravo did against Brazil and even get a win against the Oranje. More than likely, he gives up a goal, two or three, but still comes out with a postive score with the save bonuses. Ochoa is a valid option, perhaps even better than Cillessen—definitely with more upside. It’s hard to see the Dutch winning in a blowout.
The backline for Mexico is a mixed bag; not expensive, but not a lot of upside. The odds of Rafa Marquez, Francisco Rodriguez or Hector Moreno getting a goal from a set piece are tough, and the quick Dutch forwards should be a handful, especially for the not-so-mobile Marquez. Moreno’s been superb defensively in this tournament, but that really does not help when it comes to DFS.
There’s more joy in the wingbacks, especially with Miguel Layun. He and Paul Aguilar get forward pretty consistently, and against a relatively narrow Dutch side both could get some chances. If you want to go cheap in defense, they’re good options. Andrés Guardado, a defender on DS, partners Salcido in a defensive midfield role. If there was a good chance of a clean sheet bonus, I’d be all over Guardado in a weak defensive pool Sunday. Hector Herrera’s price tag on DraftStreet scares me off rostering the versatile midfielder, even though he’s the best chance for a goal or assist.
Up top, you’ve got Gio dos Santos and Oribe Peralta. Dos Santos hasn’t had the best of tournaments, especially after he had two goals ruled out in Mexico’s first group match against Cameroon. Pair his level of play with a $16,753 price tag on DraftStreet, and Dos Santos is untouchable. Even at $17 on StatClash, I wouldn’t touch him. Peralta is a better value on Statclash than DraftStreet, but the Mexican forward is the best option for a goal in the bunch. If you choose to not go Dutch, Peralta’s the place to go, the Plan B along with another CONCACAF attacker (to be discussed later). Javier Hernandez is your longshot, hail Mary option. I’d go Depay before Hernandez, and before both other starting options in the second match.
Costa Rica
On the surface, Keylor Navas looks to be the serious favorite among the starting four keepers for a win and clean sheet. Greece scored twice against the Ivory Coast to advance one from the spot—but otherwise they were terrible in attack. Navas should be the most used keeper on DraftStreet on Saturday. The defenders should be highly owned as well, especially wingbacks Junior Diaz and Cristian Gamboa. Clean sheets would be the icing on the cake, especially since neither are likely to get goals and/or assists. Plus both are certain starters, while the central defenders have some question to whom might start—Oscar Duarte, Giancarlo Gonzalez and Michael Umana are the favorites.
Celso Borges and Christian Bolanos are your best options in midfielder for Costa Rica; if you’re looking to round out your midfield pair or flex position cheaply, Yeltsin Tejeda is a low cost, low ceiling option. You’re better off elsewhere in the four teams in midfield, unless Borges or Bolanos have the game of their lives.
Randall Brenes is an intriguing flex option at less than 10k on DraftStreet; an attacking midfielder listed as a forward, Brenes joins Bryan Ruiz and Joel Campbell in the team’s attack. Both are in that middle to upper middle tier below Robben, van Persie and Peralta as forward options. However, they are not certainties and Greece is not the easiest defense to break down. This game screams 1-0, or a late insurance 2-0 result. It’s tough to build an attack around Ruiz and Campbell for your cash/H2H games with confidence.
Greece
While it’s really, really hard to fade a team completely when you just have four to choose from, taking Greece off your board is pretty tempting. Use Orestis Karnezis in net because he’s the cheapest option? Sure, but the degree of difficulty is high and there’s a real chance he sees negative points with a lack of shots, no win, and no clean sheet. He is a real contarian play in use for GPP’s only.
I wouldn’t touch a defender with a ten-foot pole. There’s little value, much let upside in any of them. The midfield options are Panagiotis Kone and Georgios Karagounis, but again, there’s better options on other teams. Georgios Samaras in attack? I’d rather go with Campbell at a more expensive price, or Ruiz, who’s cheaper. Hell, Depay or Hernandez scream better options.