NBA Advanced Matchups: Wednesday, April 1st
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
Blowout Concerns
•Lots of big spreads tonight, friends. You’ll need to take a stand somewhere.
• Kings at Rockets: Rockets -11.5
• 76ers at Wizards: Wizards -10.5
• Nets at Knicks: Nets -10
• Spurs at Magic: Spurs -9
• Raptors at Timberwolves: Raptors -9
• Pelicans at Lakers: Pelicans -8
Fatigue Concerns
• 3 Games In 4 Nights: Celtics, Wolves, Lakers, 76ers,
• Back-To-Back And 3-In-4: Nets, Pistons, Pacers, Clippers, Spurs
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
Note: We’ve got another MONSTER slate on our hands, ladies and gentlemen. Most of the elite players are on the board. So as usual, I’ll focus mainly on the citizens of Value Town that will allow you to fit in the studs you want tonight
NETS C BROOK LOPEZ
BROLO has been amazing of late, ripping off another 20+ point, 10+ rebound performance last night vs the Pacers. With the Nets clawing at a playoff spot, BROLO has seen a surge in minutes and shots, and he’s produced accordingly. He’s cracked off 20+ real points in seven straight games, and topped 30 points in five of his last seven games. Thad Young’s usage as a stretch PF has helped secure a few more rebounding opportunities for the board-challenged Lopez (9+ rebounds in four straight), and he’s been an effective shot-blocker during his hot run as well. I consider him basically matchup proof until his price sees one more big jump, and the Knicks frontcourt certainly isn’t going to provide much resistance.
BROLO ranks in the top quartile in points-per-possession in both post-up and pick-and-roll roll-man play types. The Knicks allow the fourth-most points-per-possession to post-up plays, and are just middle of the pack vs the PNR roll man. They also rank 23rd in overall center DVP this season, a number which would be even worse if they weren’t getting blown out every game. That’s the ONLY worry with BROLO tonight: despite his massive minutes of late, the Nets will rest him in blowout situations (the game vs the T-Wolves comes to mind). If you can stomach the risk, another 30+ point performance is certainly in play if BROLO sees 30+ minutes tonight.
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