Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown where we’re taking a look at another NFL playoff weekend. If you haven’t seen this article before, we aren’t giving you the picks for any game, but rather giving you the information you need to make a good bet in some of the most exciting games of the day.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s get to the breakdown for January 11, 2019: Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Historical Numbers Against the Spread

This game features two of the top teams in the AFC with the Colts getting into the playoffs with the 6th seed and the Chiefs getting in with the number 1 overall seed.

Colts Numbers on the Road

While the Colts have been a strong team at home going 6-2 this year, they have been a slightly different team on the road going 5-4 straight up and 6-3 ATS. since 2012 this trend has been consistent as they are 32-27-1 ATS on the road (although they were 3-5 last year without Luck), but they have not fared well as a road dog going 21-22-1 in this same span. While the seeding in this matchup may be a little misleading, the Colts have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games and were one win away from getting the 3rd seed in the AFC.

Cheifs Numbers at Home

The Chiefs come into this matchup as one of the top teams in all of football. During the beginning half of the season, the Chiefs were the top team in the NFL to bet on as they started the season 7-1 ATS, but since then have gone a mediocre 2-5-1 ATS. This change is likely due to the Vegas odds makers knowing that the public was going to be the KC side of the ball at a huge rate following their win streak and adjusted the line accordingly.

Even though the Chiefs were one of the best teams at home this year, they haven’t fared well for betters going 4-4 ATS at home this year. Additionally, looking at Reid’s tenure in KC, we see that the Chiefs are a below average team at home to bet on going 23-25 ATS. One of the stats that has been repeated over and over again is that Andy Reid is 16-3 after a bye in his career, but looking at his tenure in KC, we see that he has regressed to the mean going 4-3 after a bye with KC.

Colts Numbers in the Playoffs

Since Luck has taken over as QB, the Colts have had 6 trips to the playoffs, and in that span they have gone 4-3 ATS and straight up. I have omitted all previous playoff games as Manning was under center then, and they were an entirely different team.

Chiefs Numbers in the Playoffs

During Ried’s tenure in KC, the Chiefs have made several appearances in the playoffs, but in that span they have not fared well for betters, going 1-4 ATS in the playoffs. It should be noted, that the team under Mahomes compared to Alex Smith have been a completely different team on the offensive end. While under Smith, the Chiefs ran a more conservative offense, while under Mahomes they have managed to have one of the top offenses we’ve seen in years. Going back to when Reid was the head coach of the Eagles, Reid was great in the playoffs, leading McNabb to multiple straight NFC championship and a Superbowl.

Betting Numbers and Line Movement on the Spread

The line for this game has pinballed around Chiefs -5 and -5.5, with 60% of the total bets coming in on the Colts.

Historical Numbers on the Total

The Total for this game sits at the highest on the slate at 56.5 and is right on par for the totals for Chiefs games for most the season.

Chiefs Historical Numbers on the Total

The Chiefs High powered offense has been one of the best teams to bet on for the over this season as they have gone 10-5-1 on the over which ranks top in the NFL. While the Chiefs have hit the total at an incredible rate on the road this season, at home they just rank 3-4-1 on the over. I have mostly disregarded numbers prior to Mahomes being the starting QB as this offense is completely different.

Colts Historical Numbers on the Total

The Colts have been an entirely average team to bet the over on this season as they sit at a mediocre 8-9 on the over this season. Additionally, this number holds constant on the road, as they are 4-5 on the over this year on the road

Betting Numbers and Line Movement on the Spread

The total for this game started off the week at 56, and with 63% of the bets coming in on the over, the total has moved up to 56.5.