Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
This game looks to be an interesting one as the series is tied up at 2-2, and the Nuggets head back to Denver. This entire series has been the most interesting of all the first round matchups and if either team makes it to the next round, they could do some damage.
So, let’s get to the breakdown for April 23, 2019: the San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets game.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
If you can still get this Stat Shootout prop on Monkey Knife Fight, it’s one of the simplest props I’ve seen in a while. The over for fantasy points is 124.5 and that would have hit every game this series. You know that Joker is going to end with at least 50 points, especially when the series is on the line. After 50 from Joker, you pretty much need 75 points combine from DeRozen and LMA which is a lock every game. One of the two is going to go for 45+ and the other is going to go for at least 30 if not 40. The over on this hits easily here.
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Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Spurs Historical Numbers Against the Spread
San Antonio has been a great team to bet on all season long, going 45-40-1 ATS and have split the series so far with the Nuggets. It’s interesting, the Spurs have been one of the best teams in the league to bet on at home, but have been below average on the road, going 20-22-1 ATS including 11-14 ATS as a road dog. Additionally, the Spurs have been one of the best teams in the league on multiple days rest, going 12-6 ATS. All this could be because of Pop realizing when to rest his players and when to try and keep things close, and with this being the playoffs, I am more leaning on the road numbers being a bit of an aberration. Overall, this is an average spot for the Spurs to cover.
Nuggets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Denver has been a great team all season long, but their success hasn’t fully translated to betting as they have gone 44-42 ATS. Much like the Spurs, the Nuggets have been a much better team to bet on at home, going 26-17 ATS. Additionally, the Nuggets have been an average team to bet on on multiple days rest going 8-7 ATS. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Nuggets to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at the Nuggets -5.5 and with 59% of the bets coming in on the Nuggets, the line has not moved.
San Antonio Historical Numbers on the Total
With San Antonio being one of the best offensive teams in the league and one of the worst defensive teams, they have covered the over at an above average rate this season, going 46-39-1. When looking at the Spurs splits, no team in the league has covered the over at a higher rate on the road than the Spurs going 26-16-1, however the Spurs have been one of the worst teams in the league at covering the over on multiple days rest, going 7-11 on the over. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Spurs to cover the over.
Nuggets Historical Numbers on the Total
Denver has been both an above average defensive and offensive team this season, but have covered the over at one of the lowest rates in the league, going 37-48-1 (3rd lowest in the league). Denver has been well below average at covering the over both on the road and at home, but have been slightly better at home going 20-23. It should be noted that the Nuggets are 6-9 (nice) on multiple days rest. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Nuggets to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at 212 and with 56% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has actually dropped to 211.5.
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My NBA Pick for April 23, 2019 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
(Top Photo: Soobum Im/USA TODAY Sports)