Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
Here we are again. Another lose and go home game for the Jazz here going up against one of the top teams in the league. The Jazz finally pulled of a win in game 4 and look for another one here.
Let’s jump right into the breakdown for April 24, 2019: The Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets game.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
While I don’t expect Paul to get the 50 point mark again, with how good he was playing last game, I think it’s close to a lock for him and Harden to hit the 100 point mark combined, if not more. Nearly every single game this series, this pair has hit or gotten within a few points of 100 combined fantasy points. This is another potential close out game, and you know that both these guys are going to be putting it all on the court. Now, with 100 points out of the way, all we need is 29 from Mitchell. Mitchell has had over 30 real life points in each of the last 2 games, and I don’t expect things to change here. While I took the lowest goal here, I don’t hate the 2x goal on this prop but the 1.5x is a complete lock.
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Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Rockets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Houston has been one of the best teams in the league this season, but has only been a slightly above average team to bet on, going 42-40-3 ATS. While the Rockets have been terrible to bet on the road, they have been an above average team to bet at home going 25-16-3 ATS (4th best in the league) and 22-15-2 ATS as a home favorite. Additionally, the Rockets have been a slightly above average team to bet on on a full day of rest going 26-24-3 ATS. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Rockets to cover.
Jazz Historical Numbers Against the Spread
After failing to cover the first three games of this series, the Jazz finally covered in the last game and now sit at a 45-38-2 ATS record on the season. Surprisingly, the Jazz have been a much better team to bet on the road this season going 23-19-1 ATS including 9-8-1 ATS as a road dog. One place where the Jazz have really thrived for bettors has been on a full day of rest, where they have gone 30-19-2 ATS (3rd best in the league). Overall, this is an above average spot for the Jazz to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at Houston -8.5 and with 84% of the bets coming in on Houston, the line has moved to -8, showing some reverse line movement.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Rockets Historical Numbers on the Total
The Rockets have been a great offensive team this season, but have failed to cover the over in a large portion of their games, going 36-44-5 on the over (6th worst in the NBA). Looking at the home/road splits for the Rockets, they have been a much better team at covering the over at home, going 20-19-4 this season. However, the Rockets have been by far the worst team in the league at covering the over on a full day of rest, going 19-30-4. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Rockets to cover the over.
Jazz Historical Numbers on the Total
The Jazz have been one of the top teams on the defensive side of the ball this season and have been one of the worst teams in the league at covering the over, going 39-45-2. Looking at the Jazz splits for both home/road and on days of rest, they are slightly below average in all scenarios and haven’t shown a drastic disparity in cover rate in any given situation. Overall, this is an average spot for the Jazz to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The total for this game opened at 213, and with 71% of the bets coming in on the over, the total has dropped to 212.5, showing some clear reverse line movement.
- Use Code: GRINDERS
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My NBA Pick for April 24, 2019 – Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
(Top Photo: Jeff Swinger/USA TODAY Sports)