Howdy NBA fans and welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
If you’re brand new to sports betting, check out our NBA Basketball Betting Tips page.
Today’s breakdown features the game 1 matchup between the three seeded Portland Trail Blazers at the two seeded Denver Nuggets.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
In the first round of the playoffs, we were shown just how good Jokic and Lillard were. This round, we will likely see it again. In the first series, Lillard was going against a better defensive team and still managed to average over 30 points per game. Similarly, Joker averaged over 30 points a game in the first round and now gets a matchup against one of the worst defensive bigs in the league in Kanter. If we can bank on 60 combine points from Joker and Lillard, then that leaves us needing just 17 point from McCollum which shouldn’t be a problem. This prop hits easily here.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Nuggets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Even as the two seed, the Nuggets were barely able to make it out of the first round, but they have been a slightly above average team to bet on this season going 45-44 ATS. Looking at their home/road splits, few teams have as drastic splits as the Nuggets as they were 27-18 ATS at home (3rd best in the league) and near the bottom of the league on the road. Due to them going all the way to game 7 in the first round, the Nuggets come into this game on one day of rest, a situation in which they have not performed well this season, going 25-33 ATS (8th worst in the league). Overall, this is an above average spot for the Nuggets to cover.
Trail Blazers Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Portland surprised most people by getting the 3rd seed this season and making it through the Thunder with ease, and have been one of the better teams to bet on this season going 48-38-1 ATS (4th best in the league). Like the Nuggets, the Blazers have some pretty drastic home/road splits, ranking 2nd in the league at home ATS, but near the middle of the pack with a 22-21 ATS record on the road, including a 10-16 ATS record as a road dog (3rd worst in the league). Additionally, the Blazers have only been an average team on multiple days of rest, going 7-6-1 ATS. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Blazers to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The spread for this game opened up at Denver -3.5, and with 60% of the total bets coming in on the Blazers, the line has moved to -4 showing some clear reverse line movement.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Nuggets Historical Numbers on the Total
The Nuggets have been one of the worst teams in the league at covering the over this year, going 38-50-1 (3rd worst in the league). Looking at the Nuggets home/road splits, they have been slightly better at covering the over at home than on the road, going 20-25, but have actually been an average team at covering the over on a full day of rest, going 28-29-1. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Nuggets to cover.
Trail Blazers Historical Numbers on the Total
The Blazers have been an above average team at covering the over this season, going 44-41-2. Much like their numbers against the spread, the Blazers have been worse at covering the over on the road, going 20-22-1 compared to 24-19-1 at home. It should be noted that the Blazers have been an average team at covering the over on multiple days rest, going 7-7. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Blazers to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The Total for this game opened at 216.5 and with 51% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has dropped to 216.
My NBA Pick for April 29, 2019 – Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
(Top Photo: Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports)