The Dodgers sit atop the National League West with a comfortable lead halfway through June. Meanwhile, the Cubs find themselves embroiled in a typical three-team race in the Central with the Brewers and Cardinals. Tonight, the Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound to close out the series against Jose Quintana and the Cubs. Here’s a sports betting breakdown of tonight’s showcase game.
The Cubs tied their weekend series with the Dodgers last night with late-inning fireworks.
The titanic blast off the bat of Anthony Rizzo in the top of the ninth inning was the deciding blow in a 2-1 victory for the Cubs. To rebound, the Dodgers send arguably the best pitcher in baseball — Hyun-Jin Ryu — to the mound tonight for a spotlight game on ESPN. The Cubs will answer with Jose Quintana — not the best pitcher in baseball.
At the time of this writing, the Dodgers are -178 favorites to win a projected low-scoring affair. The eight-run implied total on FanDuel Sportsbook is indicative of a similar-type of an affair as last night’s tilt in Los Angeles.
Stats of the Night – Tale of Two Offenses
Tonight’s matchup could be billed as a tale of two offenses versus left-handed pitching. The Cubs will face off with Hyun-Jin Ryu — maybe, presently the most dominant lefty in the National League. Fortunately for Ryu, Chicago sits in the bottom 10 in batting average, runs, and RBI this season versus southpaws.
Conversely, the Dodgers greet Jose Quintana — also a southpaw — with a top five offense in baseball in home runs, RBI, runs, and walk percentage against lefties.
Prop Shop – HR Props on FanDuel Sportsbook
With a low implied total and a cavernous ballpark, home runs should be at a premium tonight. With that said, if I am speculating on a home run this evening, I am looking for the best price in lieu of the highest likelihood.
If Jose Quintana is going to give up a home run, then it will likely come off of a right-handed bat. Each of the past four seasons, Quintana compiled over a 1.0 HR/9 versus right-handed batters.
So, I am looking at Enrique Hernandez at +460 with his .200 ISO, 41.2 FB%, 52.9 Hard% versus righties this season. Also, I would not mind a dart on David Freese at +600 if he makes the lineup with his .288 ISO, 37.5 FB%, and 52.5 Hard% against lefties.
Pitching Primer
Hyun-Jin Ryu is coming into tonight’s matchup in spectacular form — arguably the best form in all of baseball. Ryu’s 1.36 ERA is the best in baseball. While his xFIP indicates a bit of regression, the 2.93 number is still the second-best in baseball behind only Gerrit Cole.
What is the key to Ryu’s massive success? No free passes. Ryu’s 0.52 BB/9 is the best in baseball by a wide margin. The lack of walks certainly keeps Ryu in games longer with the ace pitching seven innings in seven of his last nine starts. The Cubs will have their hands full today.
On the other side, Jose Quintana comes into tonight’s game springing a few leaks. Over his last four starts, Quintana yielded 13 earned runs in 21 and a third innings — pitching to a 5.33 xFIP with only a 6.33 K/9. The powerful Dodgers lineup should be poised for a big night against a battered Quintana.
The Pick
Ryu on the hill in his current form makes any form of Cubs selection particularly nerve-wracking. With that said, could the Dodgers offense explode versus a beleaguered Quintana enough to climb over the eight-run implied run total?
With both bullpens residing in the better half of the league in terms of ERA, xFIP, and HR/9 — the late inning cover feels very unlikely. Despite Kenley Jansen’s blip last night, the Dodgers bullpen is solid enough to hold a Ryu lead for a couple of innings.
So, coming off hitting an over in the Atlanta game last night, I will get a little creative with tonight’s selection. I want the Dodgers if the number keeps moving towards the Cubs — the line moved from -210 all the way to -170 since Saturday evening. Yet, the combination of Ryu on the mound to stifle the Cubs offense and a stalwart Dodgers offense versus a weak pitcher has me leaning towards a pick on the spread. I will take the Dodgers -1.5 runs at +122 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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