NBA Starting 5: Sunday, January 22nd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
We’re going to do things a little differently today. We have a two-game main slate, meaning that if you’re playing, you should be focusing on tournaments. There’s simply no reason to play cash games today, so we’re going to try to identify players that offer high upside potential relative to their salaries. We’re going to use the Ceiling and Consistency tool over the past four weeks to help identify today’s top plays on FanDuel. I’m not too concerned with floors today. I just want players who can crush value and help you take down a GPP.
As always, the tool we’re focusing on is just one piece of the puzzle, and we’ll have to look deeper to determine if we truly want to be using a particular player this evening.
Point Guard: Jameer Nelson, Denver Nuggets, $3800
Nelson is going to be extremely popular tonight, but as you can see from the table, he’s been offering solid upside as a member of the second unit. With Emmanuel Mudiay out, Nelson should draw the start and play over 30 minutes in what projects to be a close, high-scoring matchup with the Timberwolves. There’s merit to fading Nelson simply based on ownership, but I think the likelihood that he crushes value will exceed his ownership level, meaning I’d rather go overweight than try to pull off a complete fade in tournaments. I’m more interested in diversifying against the field at other positions.
Shooting Guard: Will Barton, Denver Nuggets, $5700
Like Nelson, Barton will see a significant boost in minutes and production over his season averages due to the absence of a regular starter. Gary Harris is listed as questionable, but my assumption is that he’ll miss one more game tonight. Assuming that’s the case, Barton will draw another start at shooting guard and play over 30 minutes in a matchup against Minnesota with a rather high game total. Barton’s multiplier percentages are based on coming off the bench, but as a starter, his ceiling is much, much higher. He has a great shot of exceeding 6x as a member of the starting unit, and he’s my top tournament option unless Harris unexpectedly plays.
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll, Toronto Raptors, $4000
Carroll is not fun to roster, and despite a very favorable matchup with Phoenix, I would never recommend him in cash games. I really like him as a tournament option, however, as this is the type of up tempo game that could see him produce a quality stat line. If he’s knocking down threes and happens to accrue a high total of peripheral stats, he can get you 25 to 30 fantasy points. At a price tag of just $4000, that sort of production is terrific and would certainly help you finish high in a tournament today. Keep in mind, though, that he can finish with single digit fantasy points.
Power Forward: Gorgui Dieng, $5400
Dieng is a relatively safe option (though he does post the occasional dud) with high upside in a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Nuggets. Of any option at the power forward position, Dieng is the most likely to hit or exceed 6x, and that’s really what we’re looking for today. We’re focusing on tournaments tonight, and we want players with a realistic shot at crushing value. The added bonus with Dieng is that he has a high floor, so if we nail all of the other positions, he’s unlikely to finish with a score that tanks a lineup that manages to get everything else right. He’s likely to be high owned, but I’d rather go overweight than fade him completely tonight.
Center: Tyson Chandler, Phoenix Suns, $5700
Over the past four weeks, Chandler has met or exceeded 5x an impressive 50% of the time. I think Karl-Anthony Towns will be very high owned, but his price tag is going to force you to make sacrifices at other positions. I prefer Chandler in tournaments as he’s capable of offering a very solid return on your investment while allowing you to spend up at positions that aren’t offering the same level of value options. Chandler is riskier than Towns due to the matchup and his limited offensive game, but risk isn’t really an issue in tournaments. We’re trying to create optimal potential upside lineups, and it’s very possible Chandler ends up being the best option from a lineup construction perspective.