Wild Card Weekend: In Which My Brain Exploded
I am typing this beneath a pair of half-finished intros that I will now be throwing away. I have about a dozen other intro ideas I am not using this week as well. It’s ironic, really, that I would have such a hard time settling on an exact approach to the intro – on this week of all weeks…
You see, I typically come up with a message for my intro first – something that will help daily fantasy footballers become better daily fantasy footballers – and then I come up with a creative way in which to present that message (a way in which I can make it enjoyable to read and relevant to all who read it). This week, the “message” I wanted to hit on had to do with “overthinking things.” And then, I spent so much time “overthinking” the way in which I wanted to present this message, I completely paralyzed my mind.
Like I said: Ironic.
So, whatever. I don’t have a clever tie-in this week. (Or maybe the fact that I do not have a clever tie-in is, in fact, the clever tie-in. Whoa – I think my brain just exploded.) But even without a tie-in, I can still get to the point:
Overthinking things.
One of the things we, as football fans and fantasy football enthusiasts (not necessarily in that order, of course), seem to find most frustrating each season is those coaches who fail to use their players properly.
Of course, there are some coaches (Bill Belichick comes to mind) who frustrate fantasy footballers through his unpredictable usage of players, but this generally evidences itself – in real life – as a coach confusing his opponents by not allowing them to know in advance which game plan will be used to attack them that week.
On the other hand, however, there are coaches like Andy Reid…who consistently underutilized Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce (and used to do the same to LeSean McCoy). There are the Raiders and their pigheaded refusal to turn to Latavius Murray until late in the season. There are the Colts – last year, refusing to hand the reins to Andrew Luck, and this year refusing to keep Trent Richardson on the sideline (or to phase Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks out of the game plan). The list goes on and on.
Now, if we were to take a level-headed view of things, most of us would acknowledge something like this: “Hey, these guys are NFL head coaches, and they see these players in practice every single day; they know more than we do, and there is surely a reason why they are handling things the way they are handling things.”
While I think this certainly needs to be taken into consideration when we, as fantasy footballers, get frustrated with a player’s usage, I also think the truth lies somewhere in between our feeling that these guys are blockheads and the level-headed defense of these guys as “knowing a lot more than we on the outside know.”
To translate: I think that, sometimes, coaches really are as confused and downright dumb as we – on the outside – assume they are. Coaches, in attempting to outthink their opponents, often end up outthinking themselves.
Because we, as fantasy footballers, are attempting to predict player production – and because predicting “opportunity” (which is largely dictated by the coaches) is such a huge part of predicting player production – this is important to understand. It is important to understand which coaches can be relied upon to provide consistent opportunity to particular players, and it is important to understand which coaches are more difficult to trust.
In fact, let’s go ahead and take a quick look at the teams playing this week, and let’s give a rudimentary glance at their level of predictability.
CARDINALS: Predictability level: Low. Reasons: Bruce Arians is an offensive mastermind, but this offense has devolved into an unpredictable mess because of injuries.
PANTHERS: Predictability level: Moderate. Reasons: When he’s healthy, the offense runs through Cam Newton, with all other players best viewed as ancillary parts. However, with the Panthers defense coming around again (as evidenced last week), they seem quite content to go back to their “get a lead and protect it” approach that worked so well for them last year, meaning that opportunities for huge fantasy games could be limited.
RAVENS: Predictability level: Moderate. Reasons: Kubiak’s offense will sometimes rely heavily on the run, and will sometimes rely heavily on the pass; when running, the carries will sometimes go heavily toward Forsett and will sometimes, instead, be spread more fully among several backs; when passing, the focus can swing to either Smith…and what’s more, Flacco’s play itself is difficult to predict.
STEELERS: Predictability level: High. Reasons: Todd Haley has settled into a comfortable approach on offense: get the ball to the studs (Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown) as much as possible. This has resulted in high prices for each player, but has also resulted in high predictability for each.
BENGALS: Predictability level: Moderately high. Reasons: Hue Jackson has always been known as a talent maximizer – doing what he can to ensure his best players get the ball, in ways that best benefit them. This has led to a shift in offensive philosophy over the last few weeks that limits Andy Dalton’s impact on the game and increases the carries Jeremy Hill is receiving and the targets Giovani Bernard is receiving. If the Bengals had a reliable quarterback, you could also expect Jackson to maximize A.J. Green…but they do not have a reliable quarterback.
COLTS: Predictability level: Moderately high…but not in the way you would like. Reasons: Pep Hamilton runs a spread-the-wealth offense, but while we can generally predict this to be the case, this predictability helps neither fantasy footballers nor the Colts, as so many of these “weapons” having the wealth spread to them are players better left in complimentary roles (Trent Richardson, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks) – which causes the offense to flow as much through these guys as through T.Y. Hilton.
LIONS: Predictability level: Moderately high. Reasons: Nothing has changed in Detroit: When Calvin Johnson is healthy, he is going to see double-digit targets. Golden Tate can be expected to be involved in a high-volume, low-ceiling manner, and – at this point – Joique Bell can be expected to see the bulk of the carries, with Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick splitting passing opportunities. Stafford’s inconsistency of play is the main thing that makes this offense less predictable than it otherwise would be.
COWBOYS: Predictability level: High. Reasons: The offense flows through DeMarco Murray. He’ll get 25 or so touches, and Dez Bryant will get 7 to 9 targets. Game flow will dictate all else that happens, but those two things are pretty much a given.
Now, all of that is worth understanding – but because it is the playoffs, we also need to dig a bit deeper than that. Why? Because – again – coaches can overthink things!
Generally speaking, coaches who have “been there before” – guys who have playoff experience (especially guys who have productive playoff experience) – will adjust their approach a bit in playoff games, relying even more heavily on the guys who got them there. This goes for players as well (for example: this week, you can expect Ben Roethlisberger – who has plenty of successful playoff experience – to look to his best players even more often than normal, and you can expect Todd Haley – who has successful playoff experience of his own – to tailor the offense this way as well; next week, you would be able to expect Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels to find ways to involve Gronk and Edelman as much as possible). Coaches and players, on the other hand, who have very little playoff experience (or who have been unsuccessful in the playoffs) can have a tendency to overthink things and underutilize their best players as a result.
And then, on top of all this, you need to remember that these offenses are not lining up against eleven tackling dummies; they are, instead, lining up against a defense intent upon stopping them. The next thing that needs to be examined, then, is whether or not the defenses squaring off against these offenses will be able to prevent the offenses from doing what they want to do – thereby forcing them to do something different.
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the non-clever (and nevertheless valuable) intro, and we move into a look at the manner in which I see each team attempting to employ their players, and the success (or lack thereof) I expect them to have.
CARDINALS at Panthers
How I see players being used: We don’t know with 100% certainty who will be starting at quarterback, but I’ll go out on a limb and say it does not much matter. Either way, I expect the Cardinals to try to do two things: 1) get the ball to their playmaking receivers however they can, and 2) try to keep the ball moving on the ground. This could lead to one of the running backs on this team being a very solid play for the price (the big question? – will Stepfan Taylor or Kerwynn Williams receive the bulk of the carries?), and it could even lead to one of the receivers producing solid results. The big issue with receivers, of course, is that Michael Floyd is generally targeted with low-percentage routes, making it just as likely that he puts up a big fat zero as a big game. Larry Fitzgerald, as the guy with the most big-game experience, could also become the focus of this offense, and we have seen him have some big games this year – even if he is not the explosive talent he once was – but…of course, he is no longer the explosive talent he once was. This needs to be taken into account.
How successful I see this team being: Remember how bad the Panthers were against the pass earlier in the year? Yeah – that’s old news. The Panthers have actually developed into one of the passing defenses you would least like to pick on…and this is not good news for a passing game that has struggled so much. The good news for the Cardinals offense is that, of course, I do not expect the Panthers to open up their offense and try to score a ton of points; in addition to facing a stout Cardinals defense (which will make things tough on the Panthers), I expect that the Panthers will try to get a lead and protect it. This will prevent the Cardinals from having to abandon the run, and will enable them to attack the Panthers where they are weakest – on the ground. As such, I like the idea of targeting the Cardinals run game. The only question left, of course, is who will get the carries. Kerwynn Williams has been more productive with his work than Stepfan Taylor…but this situation is still about as unpredictable as they come.
PANTHERS vs Cardinals
How I see players being used: First off: Cam Newton. Yes. The offense runs through him. He generally gets the red zone carries. He’s the one throwing the touchdowns. And he has as good a shot at 100 yards rushing as he does at 300 yards passing. The two concerns, of course, are as follows: 1) Cam may not need to throw it 30 times and run it 10 times to win this game, and 2) Todd Bowles is a tremendous defensive coordinator who should have a playoff game plan that will focus on slowing down Cam, potentially limiting his upside. That’s not an anti-endorsement of Cam; it’s simply to say you should take those things into account. I like Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen to combine for 18 to 20 targets (with Kelvin being less efficient with his targets, of course, but with a higher likelihood of TDs), and I don’t mind Philly Brown as a salary saver (although he’s certainly a risk, as his usage is spotty at best). As for the running backs: I think it’s worth pointing out that many of us, as fantasy footballers, have short-term memories. For example: last week, I expressed concerns about C.J. Anderson’s usage with Ronnie Hillman back, pointing out that Hillman had been fantastic himself before getting hurt, and the Broncos would surely want to bring Anderson’s usage back down to a reasonable level; I saw no other fantasy football writers express this concern, however, with Anderson being widely expected to receive his usual 25 to 30 touches, and with him being ranked as a Top 3 RB anywhere you looked. Luckily for those who used Anderson, he had 3 TDs…but certainly, no one would have felt comfortable paying up for him if they knew he would only receive 15 touches. That brings me to Jonathan Stewart. Many of us have fallen in love with J-Stew over the last few weeks, and everyone seems to be assuming that DeAngelo Williams will step into an 80/20 split upon his return. Why do we all believe this, though? Because it’s painfully obvious that Stewart is the better back? Well, frankly, that much has been painfully obvious for about three years now, and yet, Williams continues to get 12 to 14 touches every week he is healthy. Now, that’s not to say that things won’t change this week; perhaps the light will finally click, with these coaches, and they will give J-Stew the bulk of the work…but against this elite run defense, with that much uncertainty, I will not be taking the risk myself.
How successful I see this team being: The Cardinals secondary is extremely unpredictable. Sometimes, they look tremendous. Other times, they look awful. Cam can certainly have a very good game in this one, as can his pass catchers. All of that comes with the caveat, however, that the Panthers may turn back the clock to last year and play that “get a lead and protect it” style of ball, which would limit the upside this offense has. I certainly like the idea of taking that risk in large-field tournaments, but I think there’s more risk than I would want to take on a cash game lineup.
RAVENS at Steelers
How I see players being used: The Steelers are best attacked through the air, and while I expect the Ravens to use a balanced approach, I think their focus will be on passing the ball. Flacco has had some great games against the Steelers and some truly poor games – which goes back to his fundamental lack of consistency and predictability as a real-life player. I could see Flacco having a huge game, or I could see him crumbling and leading his team to a blowout loss. Furthermore, I see the potential for the “main pass catcher” to go either way. Torrey Smith, when healthy (which he currently is) has become the preferred target, and is certainly the big playmaker. With that said, I could see Steve Smith – given his feistiness – getting a playoff-sized burst of energy and dominating yards and targets in this one. Finally: the run game. Forsett’s usage concerns me. On the one hand, you could pretend his usage has been down lately because the Ravens have been saving him for the playoffs…but on the other hand, the Ravens have been in must-win games lately, and they have not leaned on Forsett. Remember: this is a 29-year-old back who has not carried a full load since a few weeks in Seattle during the 2009 season. Perhaps the Ravens have seen signs that his body is wearing down, and that he can only effectively be used for 16 to 18 touches at this point in the year. These are just guesses, of course, and Forsett could certainly pop off for a big game (especially if he gets involved in the passing game), but those are all things worth thinking about.
How successful I see this team being: I will go ahead and side with Flacco in this one, assuming we will see his good side. As such, I like all components of this passing offense in what I expect to be a game with a lot of passing on both sides of the ball. Given the rarity with which we have seen both Torrey and Steve Smith have a big game in the same week, I would only feel comfortable picking one WR per roster from this team, but that’s just me. In any case, all pieces of this offense are definitely in play – with some risk involved, but with a very high ceiling (and affordable prices) to go with that risk.
STEELERS vs Ravens
How I see players being used: I would not be surprised if Le’Veon Bell suits up, but I would be very surprised if he plays much at all and – if he plays – if he is even remotely effective. Remember the Super Bowl after the 2011 season when the Patriots suited up a hobbled Gronkowski to make the defense account for him, when Gronk should really not have been on the field at all? If Bell plays, I see it being similar to that (after all, if the Steelers are not going to run the ball much anyway, why not use Bell as a decoy a few times to keep the defense honest?). Regardless of whether Bell is active or not, I do not expect the Steelers to attempt to lean on the run – especially not against one of the top run defenses in football. Instead, I expect somewhere in the range of 45 passes from Roethlisberger, and I expect Antonio Brown to push for as many as 18 or 20 targets. Could I be wrong? Of course. But I sincerely believe this is how the Steelers will operate this week. Heath Miller is also in play as a safety valve against a team with an elite pass rush, and a flier on either Markus Wheaton or Martavis Bryant is certainly in play as well.
How successful I see this team being: The Ravens have a tremendous pass rush, but they have no ability to cover. This shapes up wonderfully for all the receivers on this team, as Brown, Bryant, and Wheaton all have the elite speed needed to turn short routes into huge gains, and Heath Miller should be involved as a safety valve option. I like this passing offense a lot this week.
BENGALS at Colts
How I see players being used: Hue Jackson is a tremendous offensive coordinator, and with A.J. Green likely out, he will surely play to his team’s strengths, hoping to keep Andrew Luck off the field and score points with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. I do not know what has happened to Mohamed Sanu, but his usage has dropped dramatically even in those games in which Green has been banged up or missed time, so I will not be taking a risk with him (although, if Green is out and you are putting in a bunch of teams, a couple fliers on Sanu would not be a bad idea). And even if Green plays, he is a far riskier option than the other top WRs playing this week (Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, and even Kelvin Benjamin) – although, again, he could be a low-owned lottery ticket in large-field tourneys if you want to take a risk on one lineup. But in all, I will be surprised if Hill and Gio do not combine for somewhere close to 40 touches. Even if the Colts take, say, a two-score lead, I think the Bengals will stick to their strengths. The only way I expect them to get away from their strengths is in the unlikely scenario the Colts gain a massive lead (in which case, Gio would likely be on the field more, and would receive more receptions as a result).
How successful I see this team being: I think we can bank on Hill getting over 20 carries, which should lead to another 100-yard day. Furthermore, Hill is as good a bet as anyone to score a TD. Keep in mind, however, that Hill has been largely phased out of the passing game with Gio healthy, making Hill something along the lines of a higher-upside Alfred Morris, and lowering his floor in DraftKings’ PPR format. Given his price (and talent, usage, and matchup), Hill’s lack of pass game usage would not be enough to chase me away from him, but it is worth keeping in mind. And, of course, it’s worth realizing that Gio could easily have 8 or 9 catches…for less money and lower ownership than Hill. His ceiling may not be as high as Hill’s, but his floor – given pass game involvement – may be about the same, and his ownership will surely be much, much lower given perceived risk.
COLTS vs Bengals
How I see players being used: If there is one cause for optimism, it is this: In two playoff games last year, Trent Richardson was given a total of 4 touches (4 carries for 1 yard, with 0 targets). Given that, and the fact that Herron was rested in the second half last week while T-Rich rotated in with Zurlon Tipton, I am hopeful that Herron will see the bulk of the backfield work this week. Certainly, he has become the preferred receiving back (in spite of his deficiencies in pass protection – something that he and T-Rich have in common), which raises his PPR floor, and he becomes an intriguing option when you consider that the Bengals are most susceptible on the ground. I may be simply being optimistic here and giving Pep Hamilton more credit than he has earned, but I feel that the Colts will largely aim to attack the Bengals A) with Dan Herron, and B) with T.Y. Hilton. If this were the case, Herron could receive 15 carries and a smattering of targets, and Hilton could receive double-digit targets. This would make each guy very much a worthwhile option in this week’s slate of games. Of course, there is always the risk that the Bengals passing D will largely shut down the Colts, and there is the risk that the usage of players will be far less easy to predict, but I’m taking an optimistic approach to this game and assuming that – in the playoffs – the Colts will lean on their best players at last.
How successful I see this team being: If Herron receives 15 carries and 6 or 7 targets against this run defense, he will have a very good shot at an excellent game. And if Hilton receives double-digit targets, he could be a tremendous play (with as high a ceiling as anyone playing this weekend), at lower ownership than you will find with some of the other top WRs. Yes, the Bengals have a solid pass defense, but the question – in my mind – is less about the success these guys can have if utilized properly, and is more about whether or not they will be utilized properly. That’s what you have to take a guess on if you want to use players from this game.
LIONS at Cowboys
How I see players being used: First off, I’ll say this: I think the Lions will win this game. I really do. Secondly: How will the Lions attack the Cowboys? I’d say this one is about as straightforward as any team playing this weekend: The Lions should let Stafford pepper Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate with targets (with probably 12 or 14 targets going to Johnson, and 7 or 8 going to Tate), the Lions should run with Joique Bell (somewhere around 15 to 18 carries), and Reggie Bush or Theo Riddick (or both) should see a handful of targets out of the backfield.
How successful I see this team being: Against this secondary, I like the Lions passing game quite a bit. The volume you will find from Roethlisberger and Brown will not be there (although, neither will the ownership numbers!), but the upside is certainly there for Stafford and Johnson. Tate is an affordable alternative to Johnson, and I could even see Bell having a solid game at very low ownership. The big concern here is that the Cowboys will hold onto the ball for too much of the game – and frankly, that is not a concern I am harboring myself.
COWBOYS vs Lions
How I see players being used: The Cowboys will stick to their guns – running the offense through DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant. I’m going to go ahead and combine this section, however, with How successful I see this team being. You see, this is where you need to look at a defense’s strengths as well as the strengths of the offense. With Suh playing this week, you cannot discount just how good this Lions run defense has been. If you then imagine that the Lions will be able to somewhat bottle up Murray, you will have to also acknowledge that this will lead to more passing from the Cowboys…which then takes us to the other thing the Lions do best: defending outside receivers, which (given price) make Dez a less appealing option than the other guys priced around him – Calvin Johnson and Antonio Brown for a bit more, and T.Y. Hilton for a bit less. Obviously, the Cowboys will not be shut down completely on offense, but I think Witten and Cole Beasley will be more involved than the Cowboys would optimally like. Before going any further down this path, it is worth pointing out that Beasley – in spite of his production lately – has not been on the field nearly as much as you might have thought: Although he has averaged 11.95 DraftKings points per game over the last six weeks, Beasley has averaged only 23.67 snaps per game over those same six weeks. This is a regression alert at its loudest – and yet, in his 25 snaps last week, Beasley was targeted a whopping 9 times. The hope, then – if you use Beasley this week – is that the Cowboys recognize that he needs to be on the field more, particularly against a team that is so well equipped to shut down their other weapons.
How successful I see this team being: In all, I see the Cowboys having some tough sledding. If you want to be contrarian and pay up for a stud on this team, I think it’s far likelier that Dez beasts his way to a couple huge plays and TDs than it is that DeMarco shreds this run defense, but I like the Lions D as a shutdown unit…and this largely scares me off the Cowboys, in spite of the fact that they have been solid all year and are playing at home.
That’s it, my friends! Hopefully I will see you on Twitter this weekend (JMToWin is the handle – I generally use Twitter to answer questions and tweet late-week thoughts), and I’ll certainly see you here next week for one final installment of this article!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to sit alone in silence and try to figure out what the clever tie-in should have been for this week’s message.