The GPP Scene - MLB Week 1

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2014-04-08 23:10:15

I was pleasantly surprised to see the interest that was shown in this column, and hopefully it’s an article that we can all benefit from as the year goes on. I do have a reputation as a stacker, and deservedly so. I’m of the full belief that it’s a significant winning strategy for GPP’s in the long run and that non-stacking as a disadvantage. Therefore, I decided to put it to the test over the course of the season to see how it plays out.

Here’s the way it will work. I will enter the $10 FanDuel Line Drive GPP five days a week with three different teams, and only those three teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

¹ – This is my general GPP strategy on FD.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the week one results!

MONDAY, MARCH 31

This was a fantastic day for me across the industry as I pretty much took down every GPP on DraftKings and DraftStreet. I didn’t have quite as much success on FanDuel but it was still a decent day nonetheless.

Team #1 – Boston (at BAL) and San Francisco (at ARI) mini stacks with Sale at pitcher vs. Twins. I went with the Phillies on every other site and hedged here. I suppose that was a mistake. However, the Giants put up nine runs and Sale was brilliant.

• FINISH: 46.33 PTS / 101 OF 1630 FOR $40.

Team #2 – Strasburg as my stud pitcher with value hitters led by Grady Sizemore and Jose Abreu. I loved both these value plays and that let me actually feel comfortable with this team. Strasburg overcame a shaky start to put up a solid total and this team cashed nicely thanks to a Buster Posey ninth inning bomb.

• FINISH: 46.50 PTS / 99 OF 1630 FOR $45.

Team #3 – Jorge DeLaRosa was the punt pitcher of the day going against Miami. This did not go well as the Marlins offense scored 10 runs and showed that they are going to be a lot better this year. The stud hitters flamed out with a combined 1.5 points from Miguel Cabrera and Matt Holliday, and that was enough to keep this team on the fringe of cashing instead of being in the money.

• FINISH: 39.33 PTS / 272 OF 1630 FOR $0.

TUESDAY, APRIL 1

Team #1 – NY Yankees (at HOU) and LA Angels (vs SEA) mini stacks with Miley at pitcher vs. Giants. This team flamed out much like most of my teams on this day as I came down from the opening day high. Neither team that I stacked broke three runs, and that’s all that needs to be said to know that I didn’t cash here.

• FINISH: 22.75 PTS / 804 OF 1503 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Greinke was a pretty easy choice as my stud pitcher of the day in spacious Petco Park. He didn’t disappoint with 12 fantasy points, though you expect more if you pay for the highest guy on the board. The value hitters also wet the bed, as Chris Johnson, Kole Calhoun, and lefty killer Jeff Baker combined for negative points.

• FINISH: 22 PTS / 857 OF 1503 FOR $0.

Team #3 – I loved Drew Hutchison as my punt pitcher of the day, and with 13.33 points from him with a bunch of big time bats I was feeling pretty good. Then the reality set in as only one of my hitters topped 3.25 fantasy points. Poor games from McCann, Pujols, and Trout kept this from being cash-worthy although it was the best team of the three for the day.

• FINISH: 26.83 PTS / 533 OF 1503 FOR $0.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2

Team #1 – Boston (at BAL) and Texas (vs PHI) mini stacks with Morton at pitcher vs. Cubs. These two teams both had great matchups against Ubaldo Jimenez and Kyle Kendrick and I was able to get the big bats from both teams as I was comfortable with Morton against the Cubs. Unfortunately, I had the wrong Texas guys as Beltre, Rios, Choo, and Andrus combined for 4 points despite Texas winning the game. That was kind of an unlucky break as this team was still close to cashing despite that.

• FINISH: 33.75 PTS / 212 OF 1116 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Gio Gonzalez was solid scoring 15 points as my stud pitcher of the day against the Mets. However, those value hitters reared their ugliness again as my hitters did not have a single extra base hit on the night. Not one.

• FINISH: 22.25 PTS / 711 OF 1116 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Morton was my choice for punt pitcher as he was only $5,400 and he pitched well. Once again, this team was set up to cash with the big bats. However, a disappointing 1.5 from Evan Longoria, 2.25 from Troy Tulowitzki, and 1.25 from Chris Davis weighed this team down.

• FINISH: 22.75 PTS / 688 OF 1116 FOR $0.

SATURDAY, APRIL 5

Team #1 – Arizona and Colorado mini stacks as they faced off against each other at Coors Field with Skaggs at pitcher against Houston. I had to punt my pitcher spot but at least it was a guy facing Houston, and Skaggs was lights out with 17 fantasy points. Arizona and Colorado played a classic Coors Field game and the 5% owned Nolan Arenado carried my team with 15.75 fantasy points. This could have been even better, as I was doing a Grinders Live show before the games started and then was busy editing lineups until first pitch. I totally spaced out on Wilin Rosario being in this lineup and got stuck with a zero as he was not playing — and I knew this. Oh well, I’ll take the results anyhow. This was the top team of the week.

• FINISH: 56.50 PTS / 19 OF 1340 FOR $80.

Top Lineup of the Week

Team #2 – Jose Fernandez was brilliant tonight against the Padres and the value hitters performed fairly well with another 3 hits from Charlie Blackmon. However, it was a high scoring night and the rest of the bats didn’t do enough to cash.

• FINISH: 41.66 PTS / 311 OF 1340 FOR $0.

Team #3 – I punted the pitcher spot with Joe Kelly against the Pirates and he exceeded my expectations. I actually hit on quite a few of the punt pitchers this week but it didn’t pay off as the big bats had some quiet days. Pedroia, Cargo, and Longoria combined for less than six points and that held this team back.

• FINISH: 37.09 PTS / 490 OF 1340 FOR $0.

SUNDAY, APRIL 6

Team #1 – Cardinals (at PIT) and Angels (vs HOU) mini stacks that were expensive which forced me to punt pitcher with Hutchison. Both stack teams scored one run and you won’t see many teams worse than this. I’m not sure how I beat four people.

• FINISH: 6.08 PTS / 834 OF 838 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Wainwright was my easy choice for ace of the day as he generally does well against the Pirates. He got no offensive support and missed out on a win, scoring 12 fantasy points. The value hitters failed me once again, although I was able to afford a few Tigers since they were randomly cheap. Unfortunately, they only scored one run on a Torii Hunter solo HR. Hey, at least I had him. Everyone else, not so much.

• FINISH: 27.00 PTS / 349 OF 838 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Taylor Jordan was my punt dujour today and he did just fine for his cheap price with 8.3 points. The stud hitters were awful. 0.25 for Miguel Cabrera. 0.25 for David Wright in a great matchup. -0.75 for Yadier Molina against a rejuvenated Volquez. This team was a nightmare with the expensive bats.

• FINISH: 13.08 PTS / 786 OF 838 FOR $0.

Final Results: Week One

My Analysis

As I said in the intro, I fully expect the stacks to outperform the other two teams over the course of the season, and the first week already started to bear that out. Obviously, we can’t draw any conclusions yet, until we get a larger sample size. The punt pitcher teams actually should have done better than this, as I hit on quite a few of those punts. However, some poor games by the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout kept those teams in the red this week. In sum, I hit a few stacks and had a solid opening day. I also did a pretty solid job selecting pitchers this week, but failed with a lot of the bats. We’ll try to correct that for week number two.

If you have any questions or comments, or would specifically like to see my game page for a specific one of these teams that I didn’t link in the article, just let me know in the comments below.

I thoroughly enjoyed writing this piece and look forward to bringing it to you all season.