Mike Trout Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On a small six game holiday slate, no offense reaches five implied runs tonight, but a quarter of the board exceeds four and a half. The top projecting bat on the board is Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP this season) in the most power friendly park on the slate. With just a 12.8 K% and 10.6% Barrels/BBE, Tyler Alexander’s 4.76 ERA aligns well with his 4.77 xFIP, but is below all estimators, including an xERA above five. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within four points of .350 against him this season. LHBs have just a .287 wOBA, but higher xwOBA than RHBs (.359). Thus, Shohei Ohtani (118 wRC+, .195 ISO) projects as a top three bat as well. Taylor Ward (120 wRC+, .132 ISO) borders on the top 10 as well, despite his lack of power with the platoon advantage and mere 78 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Trout has shown no ill effects from the back issue that kept him out for most the summer. He has a 146 wRC+ since returning. The Angels do top the board with a 4.92 team turn total.

A pair of Houston Astros (4.52) also project as top five bats on either site despite facing the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. With at least five runs in two of his last five outings (both against the Astros ironically), including last time out, a lot of people believe this is finally regression punishing Martin Perez. While his 7.9 HR/FB is likely unsustainable, more than half (11) of his 18 barrels (3.9%) have gone out and he’s also working with a career high 21.7 K% with the caveat being that his 8.4 SwStr% is barely above his career rate (8.2%). However, an average strikeout rate with a great contact profile (51.8 GB%, 34.5% 95+ mph EV) projects a 3.43 ERA that’s only a half run higher than his 2.89 ERA and 4.17 DRA is his only estimator above four. One area of concerns is a 12.2 BB% over his last eight starts, but the strikeout rate is up to 25.3% over this span, while only failing to go six innings three times. Perez has exhibited a sizeable split with RHBs owning a .293 wOBA and .301 xwOBA against him, but LHBs just a .270 wOBA and .234 xwOBA. None the less, Yordan Alvarez smashes same-handed pitching (163 wRC+, .260 ISO) and projects less than a point above Jose Altuve (214 wRC+, .368 ISO).

The Dodgers (4.84) are the only other offense projecting multiple top 10 bats. Only three of the 12 runs Logan Webb has allowed over his last three starts have been earned At -25 Runs Prevented, the Giants do have one of the worst defenses in the league. He has struck out 13 of his last 44 batters after a start where he struck out no Diamondbacks. With a strikeout rate sitting barely above one-fifth of batters faced (20.3%), he’s relied on good control (6.8 BB%) and a strong contact profile (58.5 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE) to sustain estimators ranging from a 3.19 FIP to a 3.60 SIERA and xERA. With 13 unearned runs on the season, he carries just a 2.89 ERA. LHBs have a .316 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .254 wOBA, but .290 xwOBA. On a small slate, Freddie Freeman (159 wRC+, .191 ISO), Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .270 ISO) and Trea Turner (123 wRC+, .145 ISO) project near the top of the board.

If you’re considering adding two of the top three projected bats on the board in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani to your lineups tonight, the good news is that there are also a pair of Angels projecting as top of the board values on either site, making this stack a lot easier. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .335 wOBA against Jordan Lyles since last season and the Orioles give him such a long leash, while the Angels strike out so much that you may consider using him in lineups where you’re not stacking against him on DraftKings. However, Brandon Marsh (91 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Andrew Velazquez (35 wRC+) both cost the minimum there. You probably aren’t considering using Lyles on a single pitcher site like FanDuel, where Jonathan Villar (95 wRC+, .167 ISO) costs just $2.2K and Trout (181 wRC+, .374 ISO) projects so well, that he’s a top 10 value even at $3.8K.

FanDuel projections also suggest filling out your Dodger stack starting with top of the board bats Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman by adding top projected values Max Muncy (122 wRC+, .236 ISO) and Jake Lamb (99 wRC+, .203 ISO) for less than $3K against Mark Leiter (batters from either side of the plate within eight points of a .330 xwOBA since 2021). FD projections also suggest Joey Gallo (120 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (109 wRC+, .173 ISO) have tremendous value for $2.5K or less in Boston against Josh Winckowski (batters from either side between a .290 and .315 wOBA and xwOBA). The weather forecast for Fenway is only expected to enhances it’s hitter friendliness.

Both sites project a ton of value in the Arizona lineup, including Jordan Luplow (110 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP since last season) currently running the top point per dollar projection on either site against Austin Gomber (RHBs .349 wOBA, .340 xwOBA since 2021). Cooper Hummel (65 wRC+, .153 ISO) is also a top five projected value within $100 of $2.5K on either site. Carson Kelly (130 wRC+, .239 ISO) costs $2.3K on either site. Lastly, only available on DraftKings, PlateIQ projections foresee top 10 value in Michael Chavis and Yoshi Tsutsugo for less than $3K against a terrible Cincinnati bullpen (6.09 FIP last 30 days) in a tremendously hitter friendly park.

Not only does Monday’s nine game slate include Coors, but it’s the most positive run environment on the board by a mile and it’s the Dodgers who are visiting. The visiting team tops the board at a mind-blowing 6.74 run team total, more than a run above the next highest team total (Yankees 5.54, Blue Jays 5.5). Additionally, one other team is above five implied runs, while three more reach four and a half. As expected, PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) absolutely love Dodger bats tonight. Four of the top six projections belong to Dodgers. Chad Kuhl has struck out exactly seven in two his last seven starts, but a total of eight over the other five combined. Down to just a 7.7 K-BB% on the season, a 38.6 GB% with an 89.8 mph EV probably won’t keep him around Coors very long. He’s somehow still riding an 8.6 HR/FB and just 6.5% Barrels/BBE, but even then, all estimators are at least one-fifth of a run above his 3.96 ERA with contact neutral ones above four and a half. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against Kuhl since last season, but RHBs have hit him well too (.321 wOBA, .311 xwOBA). It’s simply the top half of the expected lineup that projections favor here, in Trea Turner (128 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since LY), Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .207 ISO), Will Smith (135 wRC+, 232 ISO) and Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .235 ISO).

The Dodgers aren’t the only offense with multiple top 10 projected bats on both sites tonight. Lucas Giolito may actually be the top projected pitcher on the board against an Angels’ team with a modest 4.55 implied run line, but he’s also been a bit of a launching pad this season (20.3 HR/FB, 5.07 FIP, 12.5% Barrels/BBE, 5.23 xERA), while the Angels run out a stars and scrubs lineup. Mike Trout (197 wRC+, .393 ISO) actually separates some of the Dodger bats atop the board. Giolito’s heavy changeup usage gives him a reverse split (RHBs .348 wOBA, LHBs .275 since last season). Shohei Ohtani (151 wRC+, .300 ISO) remains a top of the board projected bat none the less.

FanDuel projections also find spots for Aaron Judge (163 wRC+, .284 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (133 wRC+, .257 ISO) among the top 10 against Paul Blackburn, who has been contact prone (17.6 K%), but a solid contact manager (4.7% Barrels/BBE). RHBs have just a .295 wOBA, but .323 xwOBA against him since last season. Any kind of contact you allow Judge and Stanton to make is more likely to be a problem than not. DraftKings projections keep Vladimir Guerroro Jr. (157 wRC+, .274 ISO) and George Springer (132 wRC+, .267 ISO) among their top 10. Connor Seabold is a marginally regarded prospect (45 Future Value grade via Fangraphs) with an 18.0 K-BB% over 11 AAA starts this year. He started one game for the Red Sox last season, lasting three innings.

We’re looking at a pretty standard 13 game slate with five teams reaching a five run team total, though nobody exceeding five and a half implied runs with six more around four and a half runs or higher. Without any overwhelming offense favored by sportsbooks, we should find the projections simply favoring the best hitters in the best matchups and that’s exactly what we do see with only two teams placing multiple batters among the top 10 projections on either site. The top projected bat on the board is the greatest player of the last decade, Mike Trout (195 wRC+, .385 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and he’s joined by two teammates in last year’s MVP, Shoehi Ohtani (147 wRC+, .288 ISO) and this year’s breakout, Taylor Ward (139 wRC+, .232 ISO) atop the board against Kansas City’s Jon Heasley, who failed to strike out more batters than he walked in each of his first four starts, but has struck out 16 of 69 with just four walks since then. The bad news is that he’s done this with just a 9.4 SwStr%, so it’s probably not sustainable, as he hasn’t had a double digit SwStr% since his first start. It’s been a .245 BABIP and 82.6 LOB% that have kept his ERA (3.72) more than a run and a half below estimators, while batters from either side exceed a .360 xwOBA against him.

The Boston Red Sox are the only other offense to place multiple batters among the top 10 projections by PlateIQ tonight. They like Rafael Devers (164 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since LY) and J.D. Martinez (140 wRC+, .227 ISO) to do the most damage against Beau Brieske. Both exceed a 150 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Brieske has struck out 15 to his last 70 batters (three walks), allowing just two runs over 18.2 innings against powerhouses like the Yankees and Blue Jays (and Rangers). However, when your HR/FB (16.7%) and Barrels/BBE (11.6%) are fairly close to your strikeout rate through 10 starts (16.4%), it’s probably not a good thing. Right now, a .231 BABIP and 85.4 LOB% are the only things keeping his ERA below three without an estimator below four and a half. He does have a sizeable reverse split so far (RHBs .365 wOBA, LHBs .251), which is mostly confirmed by Statcast (RHBs .435 xwOBA, LHBs .308), but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem for Devers. Both the Red Sox and Angels are essentially tied atop the board with the Twins (at home against Aaron Civale) at 5.3 implied runs.

To illustrate how pitcher friendly Monday’s eight game slate is, the Red Sox (5.5) and Angels (5.25) are the only teams above five implied runs with only the Blue Jays (4.71) additionally above a team total of four and a half. As a result, tonight’s hitter projections (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change) are more lopsided than maybe any other slate we’ve seen this season. Each of the top eight projected hitters come from either the Boston or Los Angeles lineups. These are the lineups you’re playing in cash games for sure. With fewer top 10 projected bats overall, the Angels still roster three of the top five, including the top projected bat on the board in Mike Trout (185 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since 2021). You can hardly say that Kris Bubic is pitching well with seven runs over his last 9.2 innings, but he has struck out 11 of his last 43 batters, which constitutes nearly half of his strikeouts on the season (24). Unfortunately, the newly found strikeouts have come with an 8.1 SwStr% that suggests it’s not sustainable. His overall numbers are atrocious. Bubic has recorded a single sixth inning out over eight starts (28 innings pitched) with a mere 4.5 K-BB% and 10.9% Barrels/BBE, although he hasn’t allowed a barrel in either of these last two starts either (87.8 mph EV). Estimators are far below his 8.36 ERA, but only a 4.91 xFIP is below five. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA since last season against him. Shohei Ohtani (134 wRC+, .306 ISO) and Taylor Ward (143 wRC+, .176 ISO) are top projected bats as well and the only three in the projected lineup exceeding a 90 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Ward is fairly cheap as well.

Tonight’s early projections include five Boston bats inside the top eight. While the seven runs Alex Faedo allowed to the White Sox last time out was the first he’s allowed more than two in any of his eight starts, he’s also struck out 17 of his last 60 batters to bring his strikeout rate up to 19.3% with an 11.1 SwStr%. Estimators are all above his 4.28 ERA (78.2 LOB%) and maxing out just below five, but a sustained increase in strikeouts would certainly make him more interesting. The forecast also calls for some pitcher friendly weather in Boston, but it’s still Fenway, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .325 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Faedo. Rafael Devers (163 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since 2021), J.D. Martinez (141 wRC+, .229 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (139 wRC+, .197 ISO), Trevor Story (87 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Jarren Duran (87 wRC+, .157 ISO) are the perfect stack tonight with the major question being one of affordability and the potential need to sacrifice top priced pitching.

The Toronto Blue Jays beat the rest of the board by a decent margin with a 5.34 implied run line and no other offense above a 4.75 run team total on a six game slate. They travel to a power suppressive, but fairly run neutral park in Kansas City to face a struggling young southpaw, whom RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .365 against since his callup last season. As expected, the Toronto projected lineup dominates PlateIQ projections tonight. Even on a small slate, the Angels are the only other offense to place multiple batters inside the top 10 raw projected hitter point totals and that’s more because Shohei Ohtani (147 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (177 wRC+, .333 ISO) are almost always top projected bats against marginal pitching, despite the latter’s stunning slump. Trout still has a 132 wRC+ over the last 30 days and is the top projected bat on the board. The magician known as Michael Wacha has allowed more than two runs in just one of his eight starts, registering the lowest ERA of his career (2.43), despite the lowest K-BB of his career as well (8.1%). We can give him some credit for managing contact well (5.8% Barrels/BBE, 32.5% 95+ mph EV, 15.9 IFFB%), which is not something he’s done in recent seasons and it makes you wonder how sustainable it is. However, he’s throwing a different mix of stuff (same stuff, just different usage rates), but even then, this house of cards is built upon a .198 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%. A 3.83 xERA is his only estimator below four. Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA above .345 against him since last year.

Four Blue Jays are projected as top 10 bats tonight. Daniel Lynch’s 12.5 SwStr% probably deserves better than a 19.6 K%, but he also owns a board low 12.5 CStr%. He has only completed six innings once, back in his second start, but does have three outings of five shutout innings or more, so it’s been a lot of feast or famine. Issues about all over a profile with just a 9.5 K-BB%, 90.7 mph EV and 37 GB% and, unfortunately, a 5.54 DRA is the only estimator more than half a run removed from his 4.81 ERA, a problem that he may best begin to resolve if a few more of those swings and misses start resulting in strike three. However, as mentioned, RHBs have smashed him and the Blue Jays bat almost entirely from that side. George Springer (169 wRC+, .280 ISO vs LHP since LY), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (147 wRC+, .229 ISO), Bo Bichette (149 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (189 wRC+, .340 ISO) are all top projected bats in a projected lineup that includes six batters above a 140 wRC+ against southpaws since last season.

If you were expecting a Colorado runaway train tonight in terms of stacking projections, that’s not really the case, though they are the only team expected to be stacked in more than 10% of lineups on DraftKings tonight, though these numbers are subject to change as information roles in. Due to pricing, Detroit currently projects to be more popular on FanDuel, though no team reaches 9%. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, simulations don’t see either of the teams with the top two run lines at Coors smashing the slate all that often. Again, no team reaches a 9 Smash%, but the Angels (at Boston vs Michael Wacha) come closest. Detroit shows up with around a 15 Value% on either site right now, which is good enough for the top value stack on FanDuel, but a bit behind the Orioles (against Joe Ryan) on DraftKIngs, though it’s highly unlikely a lot of players will be pulling that latter trigger. For more on which stacks have the best Leverage Ratings, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Early stacking numbers are available on LineupHQ and, as expected, with a team run total (now 5.99) so far above any other offense, the Dodgers are projected to be the most popular stack on either site and it’s not particularly close. On DraftKIngs, the Yankees are the only other team to hit double digits, although a few more do so on FanDuel. Smash simulations also have the Dodgers winning the punishing the slate 12.8% of the time with no other offense reaching nine percent on either site. The Royals project as a top Value stack on either site, against Dallas Keuchel, who allowed 10 of the 17 Guardians he faced in his last start to score. Leverage projections, currently find four teams above 5.0 on DraftKings with none reaching that high on FanDuel.

The highest Leverage ratio on either site belongs to the Orioles right now (these numbers are fluid and can change throughout the day), who also currently top the Value% projections on DraftKings. Luis Severino is a tough assignment and the Yankees have a top bullpen, but if we can play some small sample ball, LHBs do have a .412 wOBA & .389 xwOBA since he returned last year. Of the four LHBs projected to be in the Baltimore lineup tonight, only Cedric Mullins (144 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Anthony Santander (101 wRC+, .213 ISO) can even be called competent. Boston has a nice Leverage ratio as well and some stronger bats, but going against Kevin Gausman (20.7 SwStr%, 60.3 O-Swing%, 30.1 K-BB%) with a struggling offense seems almost suicidal right now, but it could win the slate if it hits. Batters from either side are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Gausman since last year.

It’s not like there are no positive leverage spots worth attacking though. Josiah Gray has generated just 22.6% of his contact on the ground with a 90.9 mph EV. Just two of four barrels (12.5%) have left the yard, while he’s also walked seven of 58 batters. Batters from either side are within three points of a .350 wOBA against him since he was called up last year and Miami bats are generally cheap tonight. Tigers have a healthy Leverage ratio on either site, while same-handed batters own a .369 wOBA against Chris Paddack since last season. Spencer Torkelson (135 wRC+, .188 ISO) has adjusted well to RHP at the major league level, while Javier Baez (103 wRC+, .215 ISO) retains his pop against same-handed pitching. The biggest negative here is that temperatures will be in the 40s.

The Mets and Angels have much better Leverage ratios on DraftKings. Triston McKenzie has been known to walk a few and can occasionally struggle with contact. He’s only allowed one barrel (3.8%) this year, which stayed in the yard, but has averaged a 90 mph EV with just a 37.5 GB%. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout own top of the board projections and will likely garner heavy ownership on most slates, but the Angels do have some productive youngsters in the lineup too: Brandon Marsh (123 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since LY), Jared Walsh (161 wRC+, .244 ISO), Taylor Ward (120 wRC+, .238 ISO & two HRs last night).

Jordan Hicks throws hard and has held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, pitching mostly in a negative run environment. However, he’s done so in a relief role up until this point. He struck out three of the 12 batters he faced in his first start over 46 pitches and probably won’t go much beyond four innings tonight. The Cardinals exhausted the top of their bullpen in a five run ninth that cost them the game last night. Overall, the pen has a mediocre 3.59 FIP and 3.65 xFIP this year. Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar and Jeff McNeil all exceed a 150 wRC+ this season overall. Robinson Cano and James McCann are the only batters in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season.