Buster Posey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The bullpen for the Arizona Diamondbacks have a 6.44 ERA over the last month that’s a full run worse than any other bullpen in baseball after a weekend series at Coors. Their ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are also only slightly better, all either fifth or sixth worst over the last month. Considering that other terrible bullpens over the last month, like the Rockies (5.44 ERA, 5.01 FIP) and Cardinals (5.11 xFIP, 4.97 SIERA) are less exploitable with the former facing a depleted Mets’ lineup and the latter starting Jack Flaherty against an offense ill-equipped to exploit a sizeable platoon split, the Diamondbacks might be the pen players want to attack tonight.

Corbin Martin struck out six of 23 Dodgers, but with just a 5.2 SwStr% and four walks. Seven of 13 batted balls were on the ground, but with a 90.5 mph EV and two Barrels. That’s not the lineup you want to judge him against and he is still a well-regarded prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), but he’s still faced only 64 major or minor league batters this year under competitive circumstances and 10 of the 115 major league batters he’s faced in his career have taken him deep (including eight of 55 RHBs). Players might want to consider Buster Posey (164 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP) in their catcher slot tonight. He has a 227 wRC+ overall over the last 30 days and a 96.5 mph EV on elevated contact (non-ground balls) this year. The Giants are one of just three teams above five implied runs tonight. One potential negative aspect though, is that the Diamondbacks’ website states that the roof will be open tonight and Baseball Savant’s new Park Factors call this park a neutral run environment under such conditions over the last three years, perhaps a byproduct of the humidor.

There are plenty of great options on both teams tonight in Coors as two mediocre pitchers are toeing the slab in the best hitting environment in baseball. The Rockies have the higher total at 7.56 and will be facing Shaun Anderson. Anderson is certainly not cut out for Coors as he has just a 16.1% K rate and 8.6% SwStr. On the year he has a 5.06 ERA / 4.66 xFIP / 5.16 SIERA with a 8.2% K-BB and .358 xwOBA allowed. Charlie Blackmon (.388 xwOBA vs. RHP at home this year), Trevor Story (.379), Nolan Arenado (.358), Ryan McMahon (.354) and David Dahl (.347) are all obvious plays tonight. McMahon will be the cheapest of the bunch but will likely hit towards the bottom of the order. Tony Wolters (.278) is a nice value option at catcher at just $3.2k on Draftkings. Ian Desmond (.287) and Daniel Murphy (.285) have failed to take advantage of Coors field thus far but are certainly still in play.

The Giants currently have a 6.44 implied line and versus Peter Lambert, who actually profiles similarly to Anderson. Lambert has struck out just 17.2% of batters and owns just a 7.4% SwStr, not exactly a profile that plays at Coors. He does own a solid 48.1% GB rate, though he also owns a 23.8% HR/FB and 1.96 HR/9. Brandon Belt (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Stephen Vogt (.357), Buster Posey (.345), Donavan Solano (.332), Austin Slater (.327) and Mike Yastrzemski (.316) are all options tonight. Belt is especially intriguing, leading off at a price of just $4k on Draftkings.

Drew Smyly struck out eight of 23 Pirates in his first start for the Phillies. Pitching in Texas, he’d allowed 19 HRs in 51.1 innings. Weather effects tonight may make Philadelphia, an already power friendly park, feel like Texas tonight. When he’s on, Smyly can miss some bats near the top of the zone (83.7 Z-Contact%), but he’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher (29 GB%), who doesn’t get as many swings outside of the zone as you’d like (42.7 Z-O-Swing%). With more than 40% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, a double digit Barrel rate is essentially a given (10.7% per BBE) with his ground ball rate, resulting in a .381 xwOBA. While the Giants are tied for the worst split on the board vs LHP (76 wRC+), this could be a trouble spot for Smyly, as their increase their HR/FB rate to 14.3% on the road. At a healthy five implied runs, the Giants still sit merely in the middle of the board on Tuesday, however, what they do provide that most other highly projected offenses tonight can’t is a potential patch towards high priced pitching as well. Not a single batter among the first seven in tonight’s projected lineup costs more than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. Thus, despite only Donovan Solano (128 wRC+, .102 ISO, .403) and Tyler Austin (109 wRC+, .267 ISO) showing any proficiency vs LHP over the last calendar year, a group of below average bats behind them (Buster Posey 63 wRC+, .087…yikes!), may still carry some value against a pitcher whom RHBs have hammered for a .378 wOBA and xwOBA, while LHBs have done even better (.493 wOBA, .396 xwOBA).

Playing in hitter friendly Petco Park against a solid pitcher in Joey Lucchesi, the Giants have just a 3.68 implied total and are a dart-throw stack option on a slate full of more obvious options. Fortunately, they will be very low-owned and are probably in a better spot than what their total shows. Lucchesi has been a solid pitcher this year, but he has struggled a bit over the past 30 days with a 5.57 ERA, 4.97 SIERA and just a 9.9% K-BB. Lucchesi has always been more vulnerable vs. righties, as he has a .329 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB compared to a .247 xwOBA vs. LHB since 2018. Tonight the first 6 batters in the Giants’ lineup project to be righties. The Giants have really struggled this year at the plate but have begun to turn it around with a 6th best 110 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Donavan Solano (.396 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Tyler Austin (.361), Kevin Pillar (.326) are all good options. Buster Posey (.290) has struggled this year but is still a career 150 wRC+ hitter vs. LHP. Austin Slater is another good option, projected to bat 2nd with a career 100 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 142 wRC+ in 60 PA this year. Giants batters are also extremely cheap; all their hitters are $4k or less on Draftkings besides Mike Yastrzemski. If you’re looking to get super contrarian on this slate, the Giants could be a good shot in a GPP.

The Giants haven’t been a good offense this year, but they are priced incredibly low for a nice matchup versus David Hess and they get a park upgrade going from Oracle to Camden Yards. Hess has a 6.71 ERA / 5.69 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 52.8% FB rate, 11.1% K-BB and just an 8.4% SwStr. He also has a .404 xwOBA allowed, 16% barrel rate and 91.4% aEV, all among the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Brandon Belt (.376 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4k on DK), Pablo Sandoval (.373, $4.1k), Buster Posey (.363, $3.2k), Joe Panik (.334, $3.6k), Brandon Crawford (.320, $3.2k) and Evan Longoria (.318, $3.8k) are all great value options in the Giants’ order. Mike Yastrzemski (.257, $3.5k) will bat 2nd and had a 160 wRC+ in AAA this year before getting called up. The Orioles have a 5.6 implied line vs. Hess and will likely be very highly-owned on this slate in all formats given the bargain prices and high total.

Normally an offense to target with pitchers, the Giants have some decently priced bats in a nice matchup vs. Zack Godley and the D-Backs tonight. Godley has followed up a mediocre 2018 with an ugly 2019, posting a 7.65 ERA / 5.33 xFIP / 5.27 SIERA so far in 37.2 innings with a 6.2% K-BB. He’s giving up a career high 43% hard contact, a 1.67 HR/9 and a .386 xwOBA allowed with a 10.7% barrel rate allowed. Joe Panik (86 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) projects to leadoff at just $3.5k. Steven Duggar (84 wRC+, .147 ISO), Buster Posey (103 wRC+, .104 ISO), Brandon Belt (129 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Evan Longoria (84 wRC+, .167 ISO) are all available for $4.1k or less on Draftkings and $3k or less on Fanduel. Joe Panik (.419 xwOBA over the past 10 days) has been the Giants’ hottest hitter. Brandon Crawford (.375) has also seen the ball well recently and is cheap across the industry. The Giants have a 4.32 implied total for tonight.

Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least eight in six innings or better in six of his seven starts. His 15 SwStr% is a career high by more than two full points. Ironically usage of his four-seamer (31.2%) and slider (1.7%) are down in favor of curves (28%) and sinkers (19.4%), but the whiff rate on curve (44.2%) and four-seamer (29.5%) are up about 10 percentage points without any significant spin rate changes and an actual one mph loss in velocity. Due to these adjustments in pitch usage, his ground ball rate (50.9%) has hit 50% for the first time since 2013 and only other time in his career. His 22.6 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board and Caleb Smith is the only other pitcher on the board with more than one start, who betters his 81.8 Z-Contact%. And among those who have made a single start, only Noah Syndergaard comes within 20 points of his .243 xwOBA. The Brewers have a 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP and 22.0 HR/FB at home in a dangerous park, but they also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP. This might give Strasburg the highest projected strikeout rate on the board tonight. Despite the difficult spot, this also a high upside one for a pitcher showing some of the most upside of his career.

The Giants face Tanner Roark in Great American Ball Park Saturday night in what looks to be a nice spot despite a 4.07 implied total. Giants hitters get a significant park upgrade moving from their spacious AT&T Park to GABP, and face a mediocre pitcher in Roark who has a 4.35 xFIP since 2017. He has a 5.11 xFIP and an ugly .384 xwOBA allowed on the year with his new team. Roark is more vulnerable vs. lefties with a .343 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2017 but a .303 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB. Joe Panik (.334 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018, batting 1st), Mike Gerber (154 wRC+ in AAA this year, batting 2nd), Brandon Belt (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP since ’18, batting 4th). Brandon Crawford (.302, batting 6th) and Steven Duggar (.250, batting 8th) are all the left-handed options in the Giants lineup. Buster Posey (.331) will bat 3rd at just $3.8k on Draftkings and is certainly in play despite being a RHB. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .438 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Especially on Fanduel, Giants hitters are priced down despite the park upgrade and favorable matchup. All hitters are available for under $2.9k on Fanduel and under $4.2k on Draftkings. The Giants will also have a hitter-friendly umpire in Jordan Baker.