NBA Player Props, Picks: Don't Bet Against Kevin Durant in Game 6
We’re back to a one-game slate with the Nets vs. Bucks Game 6 Thursday night. Like last time, I’m searching for value on Nets-Bucks player props, and, with help from Scores and Odds’ player prop projections page, I think I’ve found a few matchups to take advantage of. Here are three picks I’m adding to my NBA betting card.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Kevin Durant, Over 35.5 Points
SAO Projection: 37.51 Points
Kevin Durant, arguably the best basketball player in the world and maybe the best offensive player in NBA history, did exactly what we thought he’d do in Game 5. He put the Nets on his shoulders and, with some help from Jeff Green, carried his teammates across the finish line. Durant played all 48 minutes, making him the first player since LeBron James in 2018 to play every minute of a playoff game. During those 48 minutes, Durant averaged more than a point per minute. He would have eclipsed 50 points had he not missed two free throws, including one in the game’s final seconds.
Don’t overthink this one, don’t try to get cute. Just bet on Durant and the Over. Again, we’re talking about the best offensive weapon in NBA history. Also, if you’re curious, there’s no way I’m betting against a Durant-led team getting what is now +6 points on the spread.
[Bet Durant Over 35.5 Points at BetMGM Sportsbook]
James Harden, Under 16.5 Points
SAO Projection: 21.13 Points
I might be a sucker here, and I’m certainly not as confident in this prop bet as the one above, but if you watched Game 5, you know why I’m taking the Under and fading this projection. Harden suited up and got the start, but he was undoubtedly playing injured. He made only one field goal and was 0-for-8 from the arc. On defense, he was even more of a non-factor. As a Nets bettor, I was furiously screaming at my TV, begging Nets head coach Steve Nash to put him on the bench for Mike James. Yes, Mikes James — that’s how bad Harden was.
Can Harden find his groove in Milwaukee? Possibly. After all, he was pretty much a game-time decision in Game 5, and I imagine he hadn’t practiced all week. Sportsbooks have lowered his props accordingly, but, unless his hamstring has significantly improved over the last 48 hours, I have a difficult time betting on him to score 17 points. Additionally, with the Bucks entering Game 6 as 6-point favorites, there’s a possibility this one gets out of hand and the Nets decide to bench and preserve Harden for Game 7.
[Bet Harden Under 16.5 Points at FanDuel Sportsbook]
Giannis Antetkounmpo, Under 33.5 Points
SAO Projection: 32.73 Points
We bet the Under on Giannis two nights ago, but the Greek Freak made us pay by recording his second consecutive 34-point game. This prop line is pretty efficient to say the least, so I don’t think there’s a huge hedge either way, but I lean towards the Under again.
Something that could help us tonight is that Bucks head coach Miek Budenholzer, with his team down 3-2 in the series, might be more willing to put Giannis on Durant. Doing so could include an opportunity cost, making Giannis less efficient on offense. Moreover, SAO’s projections have Antetokounmpo scoring 32.73 points, which is almost one point fewer than his player prop total.
[Bet Giannis Under 33.5 Points at BetMGM Sportsbook]
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