NBA Grind Down: Sunday, May 20th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-05-20 04:56:35

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Golden State Warriors
			Vegas Total		226.5					Vegas Total		226.5
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Implied Team Total		109.8					Implied Team Total		116.8
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		0.1
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Stephen Curry	Klay Thompson	Andre Iguodala	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	20	11	28	7		DvP	6	15	8	5	14
DRPM Rat.	17	11	2	24	3		DRPM Rat.	3	16	10	8	4

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

None

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (2 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (2 of 2)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.6 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)

After a Game 1 loss to the Warriors, the Rockets responded in Game 2 with a career game from P.J. Tucker and a three-point barrage from Eric Gordon. Tucker and Gordon combined to score 49 of Houston’s 127 points and shot a combined 16-for-24 from the field. While James Harden had a quiet 27 points and was 9-for-24 from the field, the Rockets thrived despite the off-night from the star.

Chris Paul was in some noticeable pain late in Game 2 and it was later revealed to be soreness in his foot, but he practiced on Friday and Saturday and should be good to go for Game 3. It’s worth monitoring in case it worsens as the series goes on but he wasn’t listed on the team’s injury report. He’s had some solid games so far but I think I’d still rather pay up for Harden if choosing between the two. Harden is still averaging significantly more shot attempts and if those shots start to go down, I just see a greater route to a bigger fantasy game than Paul.

I think a starting point to lineup construction is whether you want to chase the P.J. Tucker breakout game. Keep in mind in Game 1 he had 1 point over 35 minutes. This is also a player who averaged 6.1 points per game in the regular season, and only hit double-digit scoring once in the five-game series against the Timberwolves. Still, he’s getting massive minutes for his defense against Kevin Durant, so I do think he’s viable as long as his price remains fair. I don’t expect him to score 20+ points on a nightly basis, so he’s not someone I would lock button. On DraftKings his price jumped from $5,400 to $6,900 so you’re paying a premium now.

Eric Gordon was also unstoppable in Game 2 and is now 14-for-28 to start the series. He typically doesn’t add much else if his shot isn’t falling and in Game 2, he was knocking down shots from several feet behind the three-point line. I’m willing to take an underweight approach on him in Game 3 if I sense ownership will be somewhat high on him. I have to think the Warriors try and make some kind of adjustment to better defend him.

Trevor Ariza quietly had a good Game 2 as well and was seen jawing at Kevin Durant pretty often. His 19 points in Game 2 were a 2018 playoff high for Ariza, but it feels like we’re chasing his game a bit. I’d probably rather play Ariza over Tucker and take the savings, but I’d understand why you’d want to play Tucker.

It’s worth noting that the Rockets are matching the Warriors’ small ball approach with Clint Capela. Capela has played 30 and 31 minutes in the first two games, while Nene played 6 minutes in Game 1 and was a DNP-CD in Game 2. Ryan Anderson has also seen just 5 and 4 minutes in the two games. In other words, the Rockets have been focused on playing their starting lineup with second unit minutes exclusively going to Eric Gordon and Gerald Green in order to maintain staying small to match the Warriors. It seems unlikely Anderson and Nene will be a factor in this series unless something changes.

Speaking of changes, there’s a good article here on chron.com that mentions going forward, there will only be one day of rest in between games (as opposed to how there was three days of rest between Games 2 and 3), so the starters might see a longer leash in Game 3 while the bench gets expanded moving forward.

One last note – Luc Mbah a Moute doesn’t look right and has missed point-blank layups. He’s 1-for-11 in the series and appears to still be dealing with the effects of his dislocated shoulder. I can’t play him even if I need a punt play.

Elite Plays – James Harden, Chris Paul

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon (I would personally take an underweight approach in Game 3), P.J. Tucker (prefer pricing on FanDuel)

Golden State Warriors

Notable Injuries

Patrick McCaw (Out)

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.8 (1 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (1 of 2)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

It wasn’t pretty for the Warriors if you watched Game 2. Kevin Durant was the only Warriors player to show any signs of life, shooting 13-for-22 with 38 points. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry struggled over 34 minutes, shooting 7-for-19 with just 16 points and going 1-for-8 from beyond the arc. It could’ve been a combination of factors that led to the poor shooting: maybe Houston’s defense was just that good, maybe Curry is still trying to find his legs and conditioning considering this was just his sixth game since returning from his injury, maybe it was just an off night. It was also clear the Rockets were trying to attack Curry whenever one of their players had him on a one-on-one situation, and perhaps Curry’s defensive assignments wore him down as the night went on.

There are certain superstar players that I can count on to have bounce-back games after a rough outing to make a statement. LeBron James is one of them (and we just saw him have that bounce-back game). I tend to think Curry and the Warriors will make a conscious effort to get him going in Game 3. Coach Kerr even went on to say the following:

“I want Steph shooting every time he’s open,” coach Steve Kerr said. “We’ve got to do a little better job getting him open and we will. We’ve got some thoughts on that front.”

It definitely sounds the Warriors will be focused on getting him some better looks in Game 3. Curry himself may even be annoyed at all the questions about his health and struggles (see this tweet here where he confirms he’s healthy). The Rockets have done a good job defending the Warriors from beyond the arc. Through the first two games, the Warriors are shooting just 22-for-63 (34.9%). In the regular season, they led the NBA with a 39.2% mark from 3-point land. Personally, I would make sure to have some shares of Curry if you’re building multiple lineups because I have to think he’ll want a statement game in front of the home crowd.

While Curry didn’t shoot well, another problem that plagued the Warriors was their lack of passing. The Warriors aim to have 300-320 passes per game, but they were just at 272 passes in Game 2. Not good. Another metric worth noting is that while they led the NBA with 29.3 assists per game in the regular season and lead the NBA with 27.8 assists per game in the playoffs, they only had 21 in Game 2. You can bet that the Warriors will focus on moving the ball move in Game 3, and I’m expecting Draymond Green and Stephen Curry to be the facilitators.

It’s worth noting that Coach Kerr was “tempted to switch” up the starting lineup in Game 2 and remove Andre Iguodala from it, but he ultimately kept the Hamptons 5 lineup. Keep an eye out in Game 3 whether he does indeed make a change. Iguodala is averaging 27.5 minutes per game through the first two games but is averaging just 8 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 steal. Those are decent numbers but they aren’t amazing for DFS purposes.

Kevin Durant has looked like the best player on the Warriors so far this series and it’s not even close. If I had to choose one Warriors player to select for my DFS team it would be Durant (although I do think Curry is bound for a blowup game any moment now). Meanwhile, after scoring 28 points in Game 1, Klay Thompson was held to just 8 points in Game 2 over 37 minutes. It was painful to watch him on the court. When he’s not hitting his shots, he really doesn’t contribute much else in terms of peripheral stats (he’s pretty much like the Warriors’ version of Eric Gordon). Use him at your own discretion, but he’s hard to trust on a nightly basis.

After both Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney were talked up prior to the series starting, Bell has only seen 6 minutes of garbage time and Looney is averaging just 18 minutes per game this series (he had been averaging 21 minutes per game coming into the series, so he’s actually seen less time this series). I still think Looney is the logical choice to join the starting lineup if Coach Kerr decides to make a change and shift Iguodala to the bench, but at this point it’s up in the air whether that would happen. I’m also surprised that Nick Young has seen 16 minutes per game in this series, and it hasn’t come in garbage time. If he’s going to consistently seen minutes in the mid-teens, he’s not the craziest DFS punt play. I slightly like him more than Shaun Livingston on sites with a 3-point bonus since Young is taking them (he’s 5-for-11 in this series) while Livingston hasn’t attempted a 3-pointer yet.

I love Draymond Green as a player, and I love how he consistently approaches a triple-double every night. It’s a bit concerning he hasn’t scored more than 6 points in any of the first two games, or topped 9 rebounds or 9 assists in any game. That’s probably related to the fact the Warriors didn’t pass well in Game 2 and have been out-rebounded in both games. I still like him in Game 3.

In terms of how I’m approaching it for DFS, my favorite three plays on the Warriors are Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in that order. I would likely use Kevon Looney, Nick Young and Shaun Livingston as my punt plays, in that order as well. I would actually prefer Iguodala if he came off the bench, but we’ll see if Coach Kerr makes any changes for Game 3. It’s pretty difficult to get both Durant and Curry on DraftKings, so I’d probably get most exposure to Durant but have some teams with Curry in case he blows up here. On FanDuel it’s easier to fit them both into a lineup. Durant and Harden make the most sense for the MVP spot, but I do think a sprinkle of Curry in the MVP spot if you’re building multiple teams isn’t crazy (I would add least consider him for the STAR and PRO spots if you don’t feel comfortable with putting him in the MVP spot).

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant

Secondary Plays – Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Kevon Looney (for salary relief)