NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 8, Chargers at Ravens
This week’s “Matchup of the Week” is a Sunday afternoon showdown between the Chargers and Ravens. Both defenses have their fair share of struggles, and both offenses have the weapons to take advantage. But which options are the ones to target in your daily fantasy lineups? Our experts break down the game from every angle.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
When I wrote my NFL Edge this week (my complete game-by-game breakdown), I was thinking:
“Wow, Jordan – how do you expect to fill out a full roster this week? It seems like there is not even enough that you like across all the games this weekend to have a lineup you like.”
Then, I remembered: Chargers at Ravens. Yeah. I could easily end up with about half of my DFS roster from this game alone.
Let’s start with the team traveling halfway across the country… and let’s start with the fact that they are traveling halfway across the country. I don’t want to oversell this, but I do want to mention that this sometimes makes a difference. These Chargers players will essentially be playing in what amounts to a 10 a.m. game for them, according to what their internal clocks are used to, and that can make a difference (really, it can).
Honestly, though, that’s the only call for caution in this game for me. Other than that one factor, I am finding pretty much nothing to prevent me from recommending the Chargers’ offense. In fact, my biggest problem this week is that I like so much on the Chargers and cannot really use all of it at once on the same team.
An exploration of this offense has to start with Philip Rivers. Rivers has thrown at least 48 passes in three consecutive games.
Should I repeat that?
Rivers has thrown at least 48 passes in three consecutive games! The Ravens have had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season, and… yeah, any quarterback throwing the ball over 40 times against them needs to be considered one of the top options on the weekend. That goes double when the quarterback in question is playing as well as Rivers has been playing. Lock him into your thinking as one of the strongest plays on the weekend at any position.
The tougher proposition is figuring out who you want to pair with him. Honestly, Danny Woodhead should be considered a top-10 running back this weekend in PPR scoring… and even on FanDuel, where we have only .5 PPR, Woodhead is way too cheap for what he provides.
We also have Ladarius Green likely absorbing all of the tight end snaps again. Once more, there is hardly any chance he fails to reach value.
On top of all that, though, you have a wide receiver in Keenan Allen who is seeing a borderline-ridiculous 12 targets per game. Can you play all three of these guys on the same tournament team? It’s not the most outlandish idea, honestly, as all three can certainly reach value given the low places at which Ladarius and Woodhead are priced. Furthermore, if Rivers puts up another 350- or 400-yard game and adds three touchdowns, all three of these guys could exceed value – and you will certainly have a lineup that is very different from what others are putting out there.
Ultimately, I like Rivers a lot, and I like all three of these guys. I would not argue against using any of them – in cash games, or in tourneys.
As for the Ravens, there are two “obvious” pieces (“obvious” in quotes because they’ll both go lower-owned than they should) and one not-so-obvious piece.
“Obvious piece” 1: Justin Forsett. Especially on FanDuel, where Forsett’s price is just ridiculously low, he’s an extremely strong play as a huge part of this offense, against one of the two worst run defenses in the NFL. Forsett is an extremely strong bet to finish as a top-five running back this week, and he is not priced anywhere close to that range.
“Obvious piece” 2: Steve Smith Sr. Not sure if you’ve noticed, but Joe Flacco likes throwing to Steve Smith. Also, not sure if you’ve noticed, but the Chargers’ secondary is not the same without Eric Weddle. Smith should get open plenty in this game, and he should see a good 12 or more targets. He is also priced WAY too cheap on FanDuel, and he makes for one of the strongest point-per-dollar plays on the weekend.
“Not-so-obvious piece”: Joe Flacco. Yup – the same Joe Flacco you have probably never rostered before in your life. I doubt I’ll be rostering him either this week, honestly, but there is certainly reason to believe he’ll put up a great point-per-dollar day, as this game is likely to turn into a shootout – requiring Flacco to put up a bunch of passes of his own.
Players I like in cash games and tourneys: Philip Rivers, Danny Woodhead, Keenan Allen, Ladarius Green, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith
Players I like in tourneys: Joe Flacco
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
Odds will vary based on the day, and which sportsbook you check, but as of the writing of this article, the over/under for this game is set at 50.5 points, with a three-point spread favoring the Ravens. This implies a 27-24 type of final score with Baltimore coming out on top. And as always, it’s important to remember that higher totals correlate strongly with fantasy performance. Our RotoAcademy lesson on Vegas lines in daily fantasy football includes research that shows just how much of a difference there is between fantasy point scoring in games with totals over 50 or under 50, and with this game projected to go over the 50-point mark, we can look to it for increased production from all players on both offenses.
Matchups by the Numbers
As JMToWin mentions above, there are some matchups to target in this game, as these defenses feature very obvious flaws. Let’s point out the most obvious areas to attack, and then discuss the other matchups by position.
For the Ravens, the most obvious way to attack their defense is through the air. No team allows more points per game to quarterbacks, they’re among the easiest to score against for receivers, as well, and both numberFire and Football Outsiders rank them in the 20’s (22nd and 25th, respectively) against the pass. And outside of a declining Peyton Manning and an already-declined Mike Vick, quarterbacks have scored multiple touchdowns in every game (five of seven overall) against this defense, with at least 275 yards to show for their efforts as well. This success translates to receivers, as well, as six wideouts have gone over 90 yards through the air against the Ravens, and five of those six added a touchdown to bolster their fantasy output. A total of 11 wide receiver touchdowns have been scored against the Ravens, with only two more coming from backs and tight ends. Wideouts are the way to attack this defense.
For San Diego, the ground game is the fatal flaw. No team has allowed more FanDuel points per game on the ground than the Bolts, and both numberFire and Football Outsiders rank them 31st in the league against the run. Four different backs have gone over 100 yards against them in seven games, while two who failed to reach 100 yards on the ground picked up enough receiving gains to get 100 total yards from scrimmage. Four of the seven backs to carry the ball ten or more times against this defense scored at least one touchdown, and with the Ravens favored, game flow should allow them to run the ball often as they try to hold onto a lead.
As for the other side of the coin, the Chargers are somewhat tough against the pass from a fantasy perspective, ranking fourth from last in points allowed to wideouts, and in the middle of the pack against quarterbacks. The advanced metrics suggest this is an average pass defense, but one that has only allowed one 300-yard passer so far this season. They have allowed multiple touchdowns in five of seven games, however, including two each to Matthew Stafford and Josh McCown.
The Baltimore run defense is the strongest of the bunch in this game, ranking tenth in Football Outsiders DVOA against the run, and tenth according to numberFire as well. They have allowed over 100 rushing yards to two backs, Le’Veon Bell and Chris Johnson, but have held every other back to 65 yards or fewer on the ground. Running backs have only scored four times in seven games against them, and no back has hauled in more than 55 receiving yards in a single game (unless you count San Francisco H-back Bruce Miller as a running back).
Players to Target
So it should be obvious how we attack these teams from a daily fantasy standpoint. For San Diego, we want to target the Baltimore pass defense, which is great, because it allows us to tap into a high-volume air attack. Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen and Ladarius Green are all great plays in any format, as JMToWin mentions above. There may be cause for concern with Woodhead given the lack of success for receiving backs against the Baltimore defense, but he’s a unique player with a special role, and I will give him the benefit of the doubt here.
On the other side of the ball, we will definitely want exposure to Justin Forsett. His touch totals over his last four games have been 27, 25, 24 and 15 (in a tough game against the Cardinals). With an easier matchup on deck this week, expect him to return to the volume he had in more favorable matchups earlier this month. After failing to find the end zone for the first four weeks, he’s scored twice in his last three games, and will continue to get good opportunities to score in this great matchup.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Top Plays of the Week
Top-ranked grinder Notorious picks out the player you need to roster to build a solid foundation for your head-to-head and double-up lineups, and a high-upside player you should target for GPP contests.
Cash Game Play: Philip Rivers
Rivers was one of the most popular quarterback targets last week and thanks to the game script, he was able to reach and exceed value with the Chargers playing catch-up the entire game against the Raiders. Rivers should be a popular target again this week against the Ravens, who have allowed the most fantasy points of any team to quarterbacks this season. Football Outsiders has the Ravens ranked as the eighth worst pass defense. In addition to a great matchup, game flow should also work in Rivers’ favor, as the Chargers have not been able to establish the run, while the Ravens boast one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Look for a pass-heavy attack from the Chargers this week.
Tournament Play: Justin Forsett
Let me preface this pick by saying that Forsett is a strong play in all league formats, not just tournaments. I thought about going Keenan Allen or Steve Smith Sr. here, but Forsett is in such a great spot, that I had to feature him. Despite being a productive workhorse running back, people are still hesitant to roster Forsett. Maybe it’s his old age – he is, in fact, a dinosaur when it comes to the running back position. That’s more than fine, though, as it will only lower his ownership in all league formats. He has everything that we are looking for in a running back. The Chargers can’t stop the run, he is expected to see a heavy workload, and the Ravens are favorites.