RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.
Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.
JMToWin’s NFL Edge
Packers at Falcons
Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 28.5, Packers 25.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Falcons Run D – 28th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 5th DVOA / 7th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D – 18th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 7th DVOA / 16th Yards per pass attempt
Packers Run D – 14th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 6th DVOA / 5th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D – 23rd DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt
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Does it get any more fun than this?
The only thing that would be better than “Packers at Falcons” would be if we didn’t have to worry about ownership in daily fantasy sports, as this would be a great spot to load up and enjoy the fireworks.
But this is daily fantasy sports. And we do need to take ownership into account. So let’s dive into this game – with a closer look at how we can carve out an edge.
The first place people are likely to look in this game is toward Julio Jones. Last year, the Packers demonstrated very little ability to slow down opposing passing attacks, with a 23rd DVOA ranking, and with the worst yards allowed per pass attempt in the league. Julio’s usage disappointed in Week 1, but part of that was the Bears selling out to take him away, and part of that was correctable errors in play calling (something Dan Quinn has already alluded to this week – seeming to indicate that the Falcons will emphasize getting the ball into their best player’s hands). So the question here: Is there any reason to believe Julio might have a bad game? The Packers ranked fifth in DVOA last year when they got pressure on the quarterback (a trait we saw in Week 1 against the Seahawks), but they ranked 28th when they failed to get pressure. With the Falcons boasting Pro Football Focus’ sixth best offensive line, I expect Matt Ryan to have time to throw – and this is awful news for the Packers’ D. Last year, in the regular season, the Packers held Julio to three catches for 29 yards and no touchdowns, on only five targets…before he exploded against them in the playoffs for nine catches, 180 yards, and two touchdowns (on 12 targets). After the Week 1 mishandling of Julio, I expect him to land closer to his playoff usage than to his usage from the regular season game. This makes it likely that I will aim to be overweight on Julio this week – even if that means grabbing excessive ownership.
When Julio eats, it leaves only scraps for Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel – so while I don’t expect either guy to be highly-owned this week, I will still aim to be underweight on them.
In 2016, the Packers were embarrassed by wide receivers, but they held a number seven DVOA ranking against tight ends, while doing an above-average job defending running backs out of the backfield. Austin Hooper is nothing more than a tournament dart-throw in this spot, while Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman remain in play in tourneys simply due to upside (“floor,” of course, is always a bit of a concern on these two, as their split workload rarely leads to either guy climbing well over 20 touches).
The Packers’ side of the ball creates at least one opportunity to really carve out an edge, in terms of where we are taking our action compared to the field, as there are two guys who stand out to me on this side of the ball – and at least one of them is a guy most people are unlikely to look toward.
I’ll start with the first guy – running back Ty Montgomery, who spent almost the entire Week 1 game on the field, and should be in line for around 20 touches this week. Not only are the Falcons an attackable run defense, but they also ranked 25th in DVOA defending running backs out of the backfield, while allowing the most targets, the most receptions, and the most receiving touchdowns in the league last year to the running back position. Montgomery has a high usage floor, and a solid ceiling.
The second guy is Randall Cobb – who will be the third receiver most people look to on the Packers, after Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson. This is not about the 13 targets Cobb saw in Week 1 (though that was certainly nice), but is instead about the matchup. In 2016, the Falcons ranked third in the NFL in DVOA against perimeter wide receivers…but they ranked 25th against the slot. Quite simply: the way to attack the Falcons’ underrated defense is on the ground, and through the air to running backs and slot receivers. If I build a bunch of teams this week, I will certainly have some exposure to Jordy and Davante, as each guy is talented and has an excellent quarterback in a high-scoring game. But because the Falcons funnel targets to running backs and slot receivers, my first focus will be there.
Guys I Like In Cash Games: Aaron Rodgers, Ty Montgomery, Randall Cobb, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones
Guys I Like In Tourneys: All of the above, plus… Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.
DraftKings NFL Reid Option
Ty Montgomery @ ATL ($5800 DK, $6500 FD) – TyMont feels egregiously underpriced for a dude who led all backs with a 90% snap rate in Week 1, plays for an elite offense, and can be counted on in all three backfield phases (running, receiving, and goal-line work). Oh yeah, he also happens to be running in a track meet with a 53.5 implied point total. Snort the chalk my friends, all the cool kids are doing it.
Julio Jones vs GB ($9200 DK, $8800 FD) – You can tell a lot about DFS players just by looking at them. For example, if a player has scales, fins, and gills, you know they didn’t play Julio Jones. If you see that a player has pockets on swole, you know they did. It’s an easy tell.
Chris Gimino’s WR CB Matchup Analysis
Matchup Upgrades
Julio Jones vs. Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins
Julio Jones must be salivating right now. He projects to outclass his opponent in a variety of ways. He’ll be leveraging a 4-inch height advantage, a Mercedes-Benz caliber heigh-adjusted speed score, and an opponent that played the 4th highest % of snaps in man coverage Week 1. It’s looking like a prime time spot for one of the leagues prime time WRs. We can look at the fact that the Packers surrendered very little production last week, but that’s not a fair comparison. The Falcons offensive line isn’t even remotely close to the dumpster-fire-esque Seattle Seahawks. Matt Ryan should have a substantially larger opportunity to let his receivers work down the field, and that should mean good things for Julio. Nobody can cover him for extended periods of time, and I might argue that it is difficult for two people to do it. If you believe in coach speak, the Falcons coaching staff lamented not using Julio more in Week 1. All of this positivity is on the table before we have even addressed the caliber of play we have seen last year and in Week 1 from Randall and Rollins. Both players rate poorly in our WR/CB rating system, and that includes high passer ratings allowed when targeted. Julio is at a sizeable advantage this week, and well worthy of the top overall matchup rating in our Week 2 chart.