Colombia vs. Mexico: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Colombia vs. Mexico Odds
| Colombia ML | +185 |
| Mexico ML | -230 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sat, Mar. 11 |
| Time | 2:30 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Saturday, Colombia and Mexico will each play their first game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic at 2:30 p.m. on FOX. The two teams will meet at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.
Colombia placed 11th in 2017, their first and only appearance in the Classic to date. Mexico finished sixth in 2006, but has failed to make it out of the first round in each of the last two events.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have Mexico priced as -230 favorites on the moneyline in this matchup, with over/under on the total set at 8.5 runs.
Colombia
Nabil Crismatt to start for Colombia
Nabil Crismatt will toe the rubber to start today’s game for Colombia, likely serving as an opener rather than a traditional starter. In 101 big league appearances, Crismatt has started only one game, lasting 3.0 innings and facing 12 batters.
Overall in 2022, Crismatt posted a 2.94 ERA, 3.49 xERA, 3.22 FIP, 23.2% strikeout percentage, 7.9% walk-rate, and a 1.17 WHIP. Crismatt was particularly strong against right-handed batters, with a 2.38 FIP, 30.2% strikeout percentage, 4.9% walk-rate, and a 1.12 WHIP.
What to expect from the bats
Colombia does not possess the star-studded MLB talent of some of their peers in this tournament, but they do have five players who saw significant action in the big leagues last summer. Jorge Alfaro and Eliaz Diaz played in a combined 187 games at catcher. Gio Urshela and Harold Ramirez each played at least 120 games for their respective teams, posting superb contact rates. Oscar Mercado is the weakest of the MLB hitters on this roster, having delivered a .207 batting average, .614 OPS, and only four home runs in 55 games last year for two different teams.
Overall, this is a lineup that lacks tremendous upside.
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Mexico
Julio Urias on the bump
Julio Urias, the ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff, will get the start for Mexico in this matchup. In 495.1 innings of work since 2019, Urias owns a 2.63 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 24.7% strikeout percentage, 6.3% walk-rate, and a 1.02 WHIP.
Urias features a fastball, slurve, and a changeup against right-handed batters – each of which held opposing hitters to a .231 batting average or lower in 2022. His primary strikeout offering against righties is his changeup, which had a 30.0% whiff% last year.
Facing lefties, Urias relies more heavily on his fastball and slurve, the latter of which held his opponents to a .162 batting average and a .293 slugging percentage last season.
Urias is unquestionably one of the most talented and one of the most matchup-proof pitchers in the world. Expect him to pitch well on Saturday.
What to expect from Mexico’s bats
Mexico undeniably has the more talented lineup this afternoon in this contest. Randy Arozarena is one of only three players in the MLB to have at least 20 stolen bases and 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons. Rowdy Tellez is coming off of a season in which he hit 35 home runs. Joey Meneses batted .324 with a .930 OPS in 56 games played last year for the Washington Nationals. Isaac Paredes and Alex Verdugo are each strong options with the bat as well. Alek Thomas is a former second round draft pick, who possesses excellent plate discipline.
This group should be capable of making some noise this afternoon.
Colombia vs. Mexico – Picks & Predictions
This game will take place at Chase Field, which graded as relatively pitcher-friendly as a venue in 2022, but had routinely been one of the best offensive parks in baseball prior to last season. The mixed data here makes for a less than clear read on the total in this spot.
Bettors are best served to wait for lineups before taking heavy action in this one, considering Crismatt’s stark splits against right- and left-handed batters. However, if looking to target this matchup – the under in the first three innings could be a worthwhile risk.
Crismatt possesses strong swing-and-miss stuff, which could help him get out of any potential jams early in this contest, especially if he gets to face a right-handed hitter in a tough situation. Urias had a 1.04 WHIP and held opponents to a .191 batting average when facing the order for the first time in 2022.
Take the under in this spot.
PICK: Under 2.5 (-120, Bet365)
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