Julio Urias Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Despite the differences between sites tonight in start times and games offered, PlateIQ projections for DraftKings (which are fluid and subject to change) feature four pitchers above 2.0 P/$, while FanDuel projections feature just one more arm (five) above 3.0 P/$. On FanDuel, three of these pitchers cost at least $10K, but sandwiched in the middle is Julio Urias at $9.5K. With increased velocity and a 33.7 K% over his last four starts, which includes Coors, the Guardians, Braves and Giants, Urias has re-entered the Circle of Trust. The downside is that the Dodgers have not let him go beyond six innings in any start, though he’s been between 87 and 94 pitches in his each of his last seven starts after not having reached that limit in any of his first eight. The control (6.2 BB%) and contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 27.3% 95+ mph EV) were never things we had to worry about. As such, his 2.99 ERA is closest to a his 2.64 ERA with all additional estimators more than a run separated from actual results. However, estimators over the last month are much closer to three than four. Problematically, the Rockies have been very good against LHP this year (115 wRC+, 18.8 K%), though Urias is a top five projected arm on either site (top three on DraftKings). In addition to being the third best projected value on FanDuel, he’s the fourth best projected value on DraftKings at just $8.3K.

Madison Bumgarner has gone beyond five innings in just one of his last five starts, but has seen a velocity spike in recent efforts. Unfortunately, it hasn’t led to an increase in strikeouts. Down to just a 16.5 K% (7.9 SwStr%), the difference between a 3.63 ERA and estimators all more than a full run higher is simply that seven of 39 runs have been unearned. Bumgarner’s 45.4% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV) is worst on the board. The Giants have a 104 wRC+, but 23.7 K% vs LHP. Costing just $7.2K on the only site where he is available, Bumgarner is essentially tied with Urias as the third best projected value tonight, though he’s a difficult pitcher to trust, considering the lack of upside he’s shown this year.

Aside from Urias and a couple of $9K arms projecting as the top three DraftKings values, the only other arm above a 2.0 P/$ DK projection is Konnor Pilkington. He struck out 18 of 61 batters over his first three starts, but just nine of 66 over his last three. Considering the 12.4 BB% and 13.8% Barrels/BBE, he’s going to need those strikeouts. With just two of 13 barrels leaving the yard, he’s generated a 5.4 HR/FB and 3.73 FIP that’s his only estimator not more than one-quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. While Detroit has been better against LHP (99 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 6.4 HR/FB), they haven’t been good. Perhaps this is the matchup that gets Pilkington back on track, but at $6.0K, it’s a small risk to take in your SP2 spot, especially considering the rest of the arms in that price range (Alex Faedo opposing Pilkington, Dakota Hudson in Atlanta, Dylan Bundy in Chicago and Kyle Freeland in Los Angeles).

Although there are four $10K pitchers on FanDuel and just two on DraftKIngs, Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher who reaches that mark on both sites. Finally the pitcher the White Sox always thought and hoped he would blossom into as a prospect, a velocity increase has led to a 37.9 K% (17.3 SwStr%). Some control issues still persist. He walked five in one start and three in another, but as long as they don’t get too far out of hand, it won’t really hurt him with such a high rate of punch-outs. With a near average exit velocity and ground ball rate just below 40%, he’s allowed just three Barrels (6.4%) and one HR. Even though his 0.72 ERA is well below estimators (.130 BABIP, 90.9 LOB%, 5.0 HR/FB), his 2.32 xERA is best on the board. All of that said, as the most expensive pitcher on the board on FD (2nd on DK), he may be a tad over-priced or more likely accurately priced in a marginal spot against the Royals, who have just a 17.9 K% vs LHP this year.

The most expensive pitcher on DraftKings is Blake Snell at $10.2K. From a strikeout perspective (31.6%) this looks fine, but he hasn’t exceeded eight in a game this year because with his velocity falling off later in games, the Padres have taken the same conservative approach to Blake Snell’s outings as the Rays did. He’s reached 95 pitches just once. The 12.8 BB% is also a bit concerning and doesn’t help his pitch count. A 3.51 ERA is in line with more traditional estimators, though his DRA (2.88) and xERA (4.73) are in substantial disagreement, but he’s also facing the Giants, who have a 109 wRC+, 7.2 K-BB% and 22 HR/FB vs LHP. You can’t pay that price for Snell today and probably not even $9K on FanDuel, considering the expected workload.

Additional $10K pitchers on FanDuel include Jack Flaherty ($9.4K DK), Julio Urias ($9.7K DK) and Trevor Rogers ($8.8K DK). Flaherty struck out a season high nine Pirates last time out to push his season rate up to 25.9% on the season, which isn’t too far above league average this year. The ground ball rate is down to 36%, but may not hurt him much in that park, even though the 91.2 mph EV is third worst on the board today. That pushes his xERA up to 4.22, well above a 3.41 ERA and all his other estimators. The attraction here is the Rockies with four batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Urias has a 24.7 K-BB% through six starts to go along with a ground ball rate increase to 44% and his normally excellent contact management (86.8 mph EV). A 2.87 ERA is within a quarter of a run of all his estimators. The Dodgers are also letting him pitch deeper into games this year too, facing at least 22 batters in every start. There is just one quality RH bat in a projected Angels’ lineup with four batters above a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019. Rogers is coming off his worst outing (three runs in five innings in Washington). He does have a 10% walk rate, but a 33.8 K% (16.5 SwStr%). Despite a 36.2 GB%, he’s allowed just four Barrels (5.6%) and two HRs. Estimators range from a 2.59 FIP to a 3.64 DRA. The 84.8 LOB% and 7.1 HR/FB seem unsustainable, but he’s facing the Brewers tonight. Four of eight batters in this projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019 as well.

Urias and Rondon are the guys averaging at least six innings per start if that’s what you’re looking for on FanDuel, but Rogers might have the highest upside on the board. Without over-whelming ownership concerns (projections update later this afternoon), Urias and Rogers would seem the optimal choices here, especially the latter on DraftKings for less than $9K.

Two pitchers with significant upside in Matt Moore of the Giants and Jose Urias of the Dodgers take the mound today in San Francisco in a game that has a low run total of 7 1/2 runs. Urias has all the upside in the world with a high K rate but his problem is he will likely be limited in terms of how long he will pitch thus making him a risky option. Moore has struggled this season but has shown upside in the past. Facing a Dodgers team that struggles against southpaws though he makes for an intriguing GPP option, especially with most players likely targeting the other pitcher in this game, Carlos Martinez, or Justin Verlander. While the bats from both offenses are better left alone, you could make a case for using the right-handed bats of Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, and Yasiel Puig from the Dodgers and the right-handed bats of Hunter Pence, Christian Arroyo, and Buster Posey (especially at a particularly thin catcher position) from the Giants.

Julio Urias will be making his first career postseason start tonight in Game 4 of the NLCS. While the lack of playoff experience is a concern, he did pitch well in a relief appearance against the Mets in the NLDS. Urias had a tremendous season for a rookie (3.88 SIERA, 3.17 FIP), but the Dodgers will be quick to pull him if he struggles early. Unfortunately, it will take a near perfect outing from him if he is going to last long enough to be eligible for the win, making his fantasy viability extremely limited. The Cubs looked lost at the plate last night, and sometimes struggle against left-handed pitching, but they should come to play with a sense of urgency in this matchup already being down 2-1 in the series. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em, meaning both teams are projected to score 3.5 runs. While the matchup isn’t ideal for Chicago, they are facing a rookie left-handed pitcher in Urias that may not make it past the fifth inning. During the regular season, the Cubs were ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching providing us several bats to consider in this lineup, primarily Kris Bryant (176 wRC+, .438 wOBA, .327 ISO vs LHP), Dexter Fowler (137 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .187 ISO vs LHP), Ben Zobrist (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .154 ISO vs LHP), and Javier Baez (124 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .164 ISO vs LHP)

The Dodgers will turn to Clayton Kershaw on short rest in tonight's Game 4 elimination game. It's a little concerning that they would push Kershaw on short rest after only allowing him to surpass 100 pitches in one outing after returning from the disabled list. In the last two seasons, Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.44 ERA with a strikeout rate of 35.1% at home. Kershaw is still the clear play at pitcher today in all formats, even with the concern about his ability to pitch deep into this contest and pitch in the postseason in general. As far as the Nationals, they draw the toughest matchup on the board against Kershaw in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Kershaw held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA during the regular season making it is easy to avoid all Nationals hitters in this matchup, especially on DraftKings where they are all priced to face Julio Urias.

Julio Urias was slowly being shut down this month, but is now being considered for the post-season rotation, so they may be looking to build up again a little bit in this start. He threw 78 pitches in his last start just over two weeks ago, so expect something right around that again, consisting of five innings or maybe six if all goes well. We know he can miss bats (24.4 K%). Walks have occasionally been a problem, but the hard contact rate is below 30%. The Padres are a great matchup in Petco. They’ve been slumbering against LHP since the trade deadline, though may once again shuffled the batting order with some new blood again recently. They've struck out a ton (25.2% vs LHP) this season. If we consider a 75% workload for Urias, we have to consider if we'd like him as a $10K to $11K pitcher with a full one and the answer is probably yes even if we don't consider him a top value tonight. While without enough of a major league track record to judge, Hunter Renfroe has started his career off strong (267 wRC+) and costs just $2.2K on FanDuel, but remember that there will likely be four innings of bullpen here. Leadoff man Manuel Margo (135 wRC+) costs less than $3K on either site.

The Dodgers have been willing to let Julio Urias throw six innings per start consistently, and there isn't any reason to think we can’t get another six innings from him tonight. After a rough first couple starts to his career, he has been as good as advertised when he’s been given the chance. Urias has managed well above a strikeout per inning, and in his last three starts his strikeout rate is up to 29.4% with an excellent 4.4% walk rate. The Yankees don’t strikeout a lot, but over the past month, with the changes in their lineup, they are a middle of the pack strikeout team. With an innings cap and a tough ballpark, it's tough to recommend Urias as a viable cash game option, but in tournaments, he is firmly in play given his strikeout ability and upside.

The Padres rank third in strikeouts against left-handed pitching and actually have the highest overall strikeout rate of any team over the past month at 26.2%. Julio Urias is a strikeout pitcher with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 10.7% swinging strike rate. There honestly is not much concern in the matchup, and we should fully expect Urias to be effective with potential upside against this lineup. The primary question here is his innings cap. Though, Urias has gone six innings and eclipsed 90 pitches in his last two starts, the Dodgers have continued to emphasize that they intend to limit his innings this season. If Urias is permitted to take on that same type of workload again, then we should fully expect him to produce a similar output to his previous two starts. However, his price tag increase could be a problem in tournaments with the innings limit looming.