Alek Thomas Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With some middle of the board pitchers projecting better than some top of the board ones on Friday night, perhaps the need for value bats is not as great, but should that need arise, PlateIQ projections for DraftKings suggest the top three values on the board reside in the Arizona lineup. Chad Kuhl has allowed 17 runs over his last 28.1 innings and that includes a three=hit complete game shutout against the Dodgers…at Coors, while much of the damage has been done on the road. His strikeout rate continues to drop and he’s now down to an 8.3 K-BB%. A 3.83 ERA greatly benefits from a 7.6 HR/FB, though he doesn’t have an estimator below four, even with just 6.5% Barrels/BBE. LHBs have punished him to the tune of a .341 wOBA and .358 xwOBA this season. Alek Thomas (120 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected DraftKings value tonight. Right behind him are Geraldo Perdomo (62 wRC+) and Buddy Kennedy (35 wRC+), all below $3K.

The other lineup DraftKings projections suggest you can derive quite a bit of value against is Detroit. This, despite Lucas Giolito being a top projected pitcher and allowing just a single barrel over his last two starts. However, he has been incredibly barrel prone this season (11.1% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the slate) and his velocity has been down over the last month. He continues to own a massive reverse split this year (RHBs .427 wOBA, .396 xwOBA – LHBs .265 wOBA, .289 xwOBA). Detroit bats are cheap. Jeimer Candelario (65 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera (91 wRC+) and Willi Castro (90 wRC+) all cost $2.5K. Not too far behind them, but costing just slight more ($2.6K) and outside the top 10 projected values, is the only batter in the Detroit projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year: Riley Greene (121).

In addition to Alek Thomas and Josh Rojas (104 wRC+, .148 ISO) for less than $3K, PlateIQ projections for FanDuel suggest you can find some of the best value in a couple of the top lineups, combining top of the board bats with top of the board values in both the Yankee and Dodger lineups. Joey Gallo (108 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (110 wRC+, .158 ISO) cost $2.5K or less against Connor Seabold, making his first Fenway start of the year with less than favorable weather and umpiring conditions. Max Muncy (93 wRC+, .145 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for less than $3K against Keegan Thompson. Jake Lamb (137 wRC+, .231 ISO) has been smoking RHP in his stay in L.A. and costs just $2.2K.

Arizona bats are not priced up for Coors on FanDuel. In addition to carrying several top of the board projected bats, four of the top five projected values on FanDuel are Diamondbacks, including the only two to project above 5.0 P/$ tonight. Antonio Senzatela has just a 9.8 K% over eight home starts this year. With a modest 44.3 GB% and 90.5 mph EV, Senzatela has allowed just 11 barrels (5.1%) with just four leaving the yard (6.9 HR/FB). Neither of those things seems very sustainable. While a .399 BABIP may regress the power numbers against him should increase. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .332 and .349 wOBA and xwOBA against Senzatela this year. Alek Thomas (119 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since LY) is not only one of the top projected bats on the board, but top projected FD value. David Peralta (103 wRC+, .172 ISO), Ketel Marte (112 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Josh Rojas (95 wRC+, .142 ISO) all cost less than $3K as well. In fact, the entire projected Arizona lineup costs $3.1K or less. DraftKings makes it a bit tougher with their top projected Arizona values near the bottom of the lineup in Buddy Kennedy (34 wRC+), who is the top projected DK value at $2.2K, and Carson Kelly (49 wRC+) at $2.1K.

The Minnesota Twins also combine top projected bats with top projected values tonight. Over 35 innings, Spenser Watkins has just a 1.3 K-BB%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in any of nine starts without an estimator below five and a half. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while RHBs are above .400. Stacks can combine the top projected bat on the board in Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .342 ISO) with a top projected value on either site for less than $2.5K in Nick Gordon (93 wRC+, .150 ISO) in a wrap-around stack. Ryan Jeffers (65 wRC+, .173 ISO) costs less than $2.5K on DraftKings. Gary Sanchez (101 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Max Kepler (116 wRC+, .215 ISO) cost less than $3K on FanDuel.

Carlos Santana (78 wRC+) and Abraham Toro (85 wRC+, .181 ISO) both project as top 10 values on FanDuel for less than $2.5K against James Kaprielian (LHBs .375 wOBA, .388 xwOBA since 2021), while Stephen Piscotty (105 wRC+) and Nick Allen (143 wRC+, .294 ISO) project as a pair of top DraftKings values on the other side of this matchup against Marco Gonzales (RHBs .328 wOBA, .333 xwOBA since last season). A trio of Tigers also project as top 10 DK values against Brad Keller (batters from either side between a .339 and .369 wOBA and xwOBA since LY). Victor Reyes (78 wRC+), Riley Greene (130 wRC+) and Spencer Torkelson (69 wRC+) all cost less than $2.5K.

On a 14 game slate with only two teams (Twins & Angels) above five implied runs and only slightly separating themselves from the rest of the board, the Angels are the only team projected for double digit stacking ownership currently (projections are fluid and updated throughout the day) and they reach this point on DraftKings only. Cheap Twins bats are projected to form the most popular stack on FanDuel, but not at a rate that reaches even nine percent. No offense smashes the board at a double digit rate on either site tonight, but the Twins top the board in Smash% with a rate that nearly reaches double digits. Why would the Angels project to be more popular than the Twins? Likely because their offense is more compactly run through three to four top bats on any given night in more of a stars and scrubs fashion. The surprise here is that Minnesota stacks don’t project as the top value, especially on FanDuel, where many Twins can be found for less than $3K. It’s the Arizona Diamondbacks that get that nod with the top Value% on either site at this time. Rony Garcia has struck out 24 of 99 batters over five starts, but with just an 8.9 SwStr%. His strikeout rate on the season is even higher (27.3%) with the same swinging strike rate and a mere average 15.5 CStr%, suggesting that none of it is sustainable. Add in a 29 GB%, 93.7 mph EV and 20% Barrels/BBE and he’s not fooling many sharp players. LHBs own a .361 wOBA (.391 xwOBA) against him since last season. Alek Thomas (140 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since last year) is now batting second and is still less than $3K on either site. Projections differ by site on which stack may provide the best leverage and neither currently includes any of the teams mentioned above. For more, check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Monday night is a very pitching heavy slate with a couple of clear top offenses at the top of the board. Early stacking projections suggest that Angels and Red Sox stacks are going to be more than twice as popular as any other on either site. No surprise, they also smash the slate in simulations around 50% more often than any other offense with the Angels a bit ahead of the Red Sox. Kris Bubic has recorded a single sixth inning out over eight starts (28 innings pitched) with a mere 4.5 K-BB% and 10.9% Barrels/BBE. It’s hard not to love any lineup he’s facing. Angels are also cheap enough, with the exception of Mike Trout, that they also project as the best value stack on FanDuel currently (although projections are fluid and update throughout the day), but aren’t too far ahead of the Tigers and Diamondbacks, two poor, but cheap offenses in marginal spots. The Tigers are the overwhelming top projected value stack on DraftKings. They aren’t good, but they are cheap in a hitter friendly park (though pitcher friendly weather), facing a spot starting rookie, who is making just his third major league start. Are Boston and Los Angeles stacks going to be too popular to lean on in GPPs tonight? Projections differ by site, but also believe there are better options on both sites. To find out more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.