(USA TODAY Sports)`The favorites dominated the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. In the Round of 32, favorites went a ridiculous 16-0 straight up and 12-4 versus the betting line. Most people predicted this was going to be a top-heavy tournament coming in with the higher seeds advancing. So far, it hasn’t disappointed. Will the favorites continue to cash in the Sweet 16? We spoke to oddsmakers to find out if bettors are on the riding the favorites or taking the points with the underdogs.
One of the few favorites that didn’t cover last weekend was No. 1 overall seed Duke. The Blue Devils escaped with a 77-76 win over No. 9 seed UCF. Duke failed to cover the 12-point spread and despite advancing to the Sweet 16, saw its odds to win the NCAA Tournament go from +240 to +300 at Caesars. A No. 1 seed advancing to the Sweet 16 and seeing its odds go up isn’t something you see often. Duke is still +225 at FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey, followed by Virginia +425 and North Carolina +550.
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Recent history suggests laying the points is the way to go in the Sweet 16, especially with the top seeds. No. 1 seeds are 13-3 ATS in the Sweet 16 over the last five years.
Public backing the underdogs
The interesting thing about the NCAA Tournament now is public money often comes in on the underdogs. We saw that in the first round with public money backing Northeastern, New Mexico State and UC Irvine. In the second round, the public likes Murray State and Villanova.
Despite the favorites bringing home the money in the Round of 32, the trend is continuing with the public betting underdogs and the sharps backing the favorites. The NCAA Tournament is like the bizarro world for gamblers.
“The public typically loves the favorites, however we are seeing dog play on Oregon, Florida State and Houston early,” said Robert Walker of USBookmaking. “Still, our most lopsided games thus far are Duke over Virginia Tech and North Carolina over Auburn.”
Pros vs. Joes matchups
Gonzaga opened -7 over Florida State but that number has risen to -8 at most sportsbooks, despite the Seminoles being a popular public play. North Carolina went from -5 to -5.5 over Auburn with the public pounding the Tar Heels. The line in the Virginia-Oregon game has gone the other way. Virginia opened 8.5 and is down to -8 on Thursday.
Derek Wilkinson, race and sports manager at the Westgate LV Superbook, said those three games are shaping up to be Pros vs. Joes for the sportsbook.
“The public all over Oregon, but the sharps are on Virginia,” Wilkinson said. “The public betting Florida State, but sharps like Gonzaga. For Friday, the only game with a lot of action is Auburn/UNC. So far, the sharps seem to like Auburn plus the points while the public is betting heavily on UNC.”
Everyone likes Tennessee
While sharp and public bettors are on the opposite sides in three games at the Westgate, there is one team they do agree on: Tennessee. The No. 2 seed Volunteers are 2-point favorites over No. 3 seed Purdue and bettors are backing Tennessee at that short number.
“We’ve been getting a lot of action on Tennessee from sharps and the public,” said Wilkinson. “We’ll need Purdue pretty big for sure.”
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Books seeing a lot of action
Books are expecting to see a lot of action, both for the Sweet 16, and this weekend in the Elite 8. One reason is all the top teams made it through the tournament without getting upset, something that doesn’t happen often. Fourteen of the top 16 seeds, and all the No. 1, 2 and 3 seeds, reached the regional semifinals for the first time since 2009.
“This final 16 is about as good as I’ve seen in a long time and I would expect us to be extremely busy the next two rounds with a lot of bets coming in,” said Walker.