RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 1
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.
Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.
JMToWin’s NFL Edge
Raiders at Titans
Vegas-Implied Total: Raiders 25.75, Titans 25.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Titans Run D – 10th DVOA / 12th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O – 16th DVOA / 10th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D – 27th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Raiders Pass O – 4th DVOA / 20th Yards per pass attempt
Raiders Run D – 17th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O – 8th DVOA / 4th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D – 25th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Titans Pass O – 9th DVOA / 12th Yards per pass attempt
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Each Monday during the NFL season, I spend the day watching every game from the previous day. This will be one of the games I will be most excited to watch, as there are a lot of things to like about each team.
The very first thing to talk about here is Marshawn Lynch, as I want to get him out of the way early. And first things first: while readers tend to prefer definitive statements in article such as this, the simple truth is, everyone is simply guessing when it comes to “what we can expect out of Lynch.” What we do know is that he didn’t play football last year, he is 31 years old, and he averaged 3.7 yards per carry the last time we saw him…on a team that supported 5.6 yards per carry from Thomas Rawls that same year. While one argument is that the Raiders have one of the best offensive lines in football, the smartest play in Week 1 – when there is plenty to like in other spots, and Lynch may be higher-owned than the uncertainty dictates he should be – is to simply hold off until we know more (basically: we have no idea if Lynch is an upgrade on Latavius Murray – and I imagine very few of us would have been going out of our way to roster Murray last year in this spot). One final (and very important) note here is that Dick LeBeau’s defenses tend to bring an extra safety into the box to slow down the run and force teams to pass. While this doesn’t always lead to lower per-play efficiency on the ground, it does almost always lead to fewer rushing attempts. This held true last year, when the Titans faced the second fewest rushing attempts in the NFL.
Fewer rushing plays, of course, means more passing plays – and the best thing about “passing plays on the Raiders” is that we know where the ball is going. Each of the last two years, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have accounted for roughly 50% of the team’s targets – which is borderline-absurd. Because Lynch is not a big threat for pass game targets, the only thing that really changes here is the addition of Jared Cook. In spite of being poor vs wide receivers and running backs through the air last year, the Titans ranked eighth in DVOA against the tight end, so Cook is merely a dart throw in Week 1 (albeit a dart throw with obvious upside). While we should see Derek Carr try to squeeze a few targets to Cook to get their connection going, we are almost certain to see Crabtree (8.9 targets per game last year) and Cooper (8.3 targets per game last year) end up in their standard range.
While the Titans have improved their cornerback personnel, it’s nothing that should downgrade the stud Oakland receivers. As such, things in this pass-catching group look like this: Cooper sees more downfield targets and is a more explosive physical specimen, giving him obvious upside, but a lower floor than Crabtree. Crabtree runs more high-percentage routes and kicks into the slot more often, giving him a higher floor than Cooper. While Crabtree’s skill set keeps his yardage ceiling lower than Cooper’s, Crabtree has seen 36 red zone targets the last two years compared to 20 for Amari (Amari has not helped his case by scoring only two touchdowns on those 20 looks). The scoring opportunities raise Crabtree’s overall ceiling to the same level as Amari’s, making him a higher-floor, equal-ceiling option. Obviously, the upside keeps both guys in play in tourneys (each guy is a strong bet for a big game here), while the higher floor elevates Crabtree to preferred status in cash.
On the other side, we have one of my favorite 2017 offenses in the Titans – with one of my favorite Week 1 quarterback plays in Marcus Mariota. While we all know, fundamentally, that running quarterbacks offer enormous upside, there seems to be a mental block among many DFSers that prevents them from getting on board with Mariota.
Last year, the Titans relied heavy on formations that utilized two tight ends and/or a fullback, while focusing primarily on the run. This year, the Titans signed Eric Decker and drafted Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor, signaling that they are ready to shift toward more three-wide sets, and toward a more pass-happy approach. Mike Mularkey was the Falcons’ offensive coordinator in 2009 and 2010 when the team shifted from a heavy reliance on Michael Turner to a more pass-heavy approach – with pass attempts for Matt Ryan jumping from under 30 per game in 2009 to over 35 per game in 2010. While we may not see that happen all at once for Mariota this year, there is a good chance Mularkey gradually opens things up as the season moves along.
One of the drawbacks to the Titans’ passing game is that Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor do not appear to be ready for big early-season roles (thereby limiting the explosive options for Mariota to throw to, and limiting the likelihood of a heavy “three-wide set” approach). The positive here, of course, is that we can expect targets to go toward three main guys: Eric Decker, Rishard Matthews, and Delanie Walker.
Decker is an excellent route runner who excels in the red zone, taking on a Raiders team with continuing questions in the secondary. I expect around seven or eight targets for him in this one, and I like his upside with those looks. Matthews is low on explosive talent but high on route-running chops and red zone efficiency. Six to seven targets is a fair expectation here, with a lower floor than Decker, but with roughly the same ceiling. Delanie is taking on a team that has routinely struggled to cover tight ends, and while his targets tend to spike and drop throughout the season (making him an iffy play from a “safety” perspective), he has a great rapport with Mariota and has touchdown-aided upside for a nice game.
Later in the year, I will have concerns about the touch volume we will see from DeMarco Murray – with Derrick Henry smashing each time he steps on the field, and with the Titans likely to pass a bit more than they did last year – but because of the expected slow starts from the rookie wide receivers, we should still see 18 to 20 carries and a handful of targets for DeMarco. Behind one of the best offensive lines in football, against a team that has fielded abysmal inside linebacker play and poor interior defensive line play, I like DeMarco a lot in Week 1.
This should be a fun game with two good offenses and plenty of DFS goodness – and I’ll certainly have a close eye on this game for my roster(s) this week.
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.
Davis Mattek’s AutoMattek Absolutes
My favorite target in the Oakland/Tennessee is oddly enough, a tight end. I should first say that I do absolutely expect Walker’s target share and most important, his redzone target share to be lower than it was in 2016. The Titans signed and drafted two real wide receivers (Corey Davis and Eric Decker); it’s no longer Walker and a group of minnows running around 8 yards down the field. Decker’s specialty has and always will be turning redzone targets into touchdowns and I suspect that the Titans know that. However, Walker is not going to just walk back into 3rd or 4th in line for targets and Davis’ role will expand as the weeks go on, he is not likely to be the top featured wide receiver from day one.
The Raiders have the weakest line-backing crew in the NFL and just cut their former MIKE in Ben Heeney. The Raiders were 23rd in DVOA against the TE position last season and their secondary is even worse this year if anything. In the event that this game turns into a shootout, you’re going to want GPP pieces across the board but Walker is easily the most affordable and provides you a pivot off of what will be one of the most popular plays of the weekend in Ertz.
Chris Gimino’s WR CB Matchup Analysis
Amari Cooper vs. Logan Ryan / Adoree Jackson
On our Inside the Matchup video, there is an amazing breakdown of Amari Cooper defeating man to man coverage. This is coverage the Titans ran often in 2016, and this is nothing new for Dick LeBeau. The Titans allowed almost 2,957 yards passing (6th most) last season when in Cover 1, Man Cover 2, and Cover 3 types according to Sports Info Solutions Inc. We should see more than one opportunity for Cooper to get singled up with a Titan DB. Amari Cooper is just 23 years old, has a 91st percentile height adjusted speed score, and tremendous game breaking capability that we haven’t even fully seen in the NFL. The upgrade, in this case, isn’t as heavily focused on the skill of the Titan defenders as much as the scheme in which they play. Cooper is skillful enough to beat cornerbacks who are a lot better than what the Titans can throw at him, and is a must include into your tournament mix. The ceiling is even higher than usual.