RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 4
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.
Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.
JMToWin’s NFL Edge
Titans at Texans
Vegas-Implied Total: Titans 22.75, Texans 21.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Texans Run D – 7th DVOA / 12th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O – 2nd DVOA / 2nd Yards per carry
Texans Pass D – 19th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Titans Pass O – 6th DVOA / 17th Yards per pass attempt
Titans Run D – 18th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O – 15th DVOA / 12th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D – 24th DVOA / 20th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Texans Pass O – 25th DVOA / 26th Yards per pass attempt
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This is one of the sneakier spots for offense – on both sides of the matchup (though in terms of this being “sneaky,” I have talked to one very sharp football mind already who thinks that Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will become the chalk stack this week; we’ll have a better gauge as the week moves along, but there is at least a chance that the Texans’ side is less sneaky than I would like).
We’ll start with that side, where Deshaun Watson actually has a tougher matchup this week against the Titans’ 24th-ranked pass defense (DVOA) than he had last week against the currently-pathetic Patriots defense. But tough or not, the matchup is good – and for DFS purposes, the matchup is actually a little bit better, as the Titans have a stronger pass rush (with an adjusted sack rate of 6.1%) than the Patriots (with their league-worst 1.3% adjusted sack rate). This means that Watson – behind the Texans’ poor offensive line – may be forced to take off on the ground more often, thereby raising his rushing yardage floor.
Watson looked genuinely good in Week 3, and the most encouraging thing to me was what he did outside of throwing the ball: carrying out his fakes masterfully, and doing the little things right. In an offense schemed by Bill O’Brien, a quarterback who can do the little things right can open up bigger passing lanes than quarterbacks in a different offense would have – which can elevate the chances for success. Longtime readers know that I’m primarily a single-lineup guy (as in: roughly 85% to 95% of my bankroll each week is centered on a single lineup). Last week, I had DeShone Kizer on about 60% of my Milly Maker teams, and I nearly used him on “main team” – where 85% of my investment was – as well. I expect Watson will be the same thing for me this week: a guy I’ll have on a huge chunk of Milly Maker teams, with a strong chance that he ends up on my main team as well. The rushing floor combined with the upside make him a strong play this week.
So far, DeAndre Hopkins has seen 16, 13, and eight targets. These have come against the aforementioned Jaguars pass defense, a Cincinnati defense that is strong on the perimeter and aims to filter targets inside, and a Patriots defense that was scheming to take Hopkins away. Hopkins ranks second in the NFL in percentage of team air yards, while Watson ranks eighth in aggressiveness percentage (i.e., targeting receivers who could be said to be “covered”). Basically, Hopkins is seeing as much attention from his quarterback as any wide receiver in football, and there is no reason to expect that to stop this week – especially against a poor secondary. Hopkins is a strong foundation piece.
The rest of the Texans’ passing attack is viable as deep-tourney plays, with Bruce Ellington, Ryan Griffin, and Stephen Anderson picking up the scraps. Will Fuller will complicate things even further if he returns this week. In Week 3, Watson spread the ball around more than he did in his Week 2 start (when he gave Hopkins 13 targets, in spite of throwing only 24 times), but the Patriots focused their defensive scheme around taking Hopkins away – which forced the Texans to call plays elsewhere. The Titans are far less likely to be effective in this area, which makes the floor on these ancillary options low.
The one concern for the Texans’ passing attack (more so for the idea of rostering Watson than Hopkins – as Hopkins should be locked into double-digit targets even in a low-volume passing game) is that the Texans would optimally prefer to be a run-dominant team. I still feel pretty good about Watson, as the Titans (as mentioned the last couple weeks) like to bring an extra safety into the box, which led to them facing the second-fewest run plays in the NFL last year. Though even with that, there is risk that the Texans only throw the ball 22 to 25 times.
This brings us to Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman, who are locked into a Miller-leaning committee. With the disappearance of the checkdown now that Watson is under center, the floor on each guy is low. But the price on DraftKings stands out, on a week without a ton of value to love, which at least brings them into the conversation. If going here, Miller – who should still get 20 touches – is the preferred guy. Unless the Titans burst out to a big lead, something similar to Weeks 1 and 2 – when Miller saw 19 and 21 touches (with five total targets) – is a fair expectation.
The running game on the other side is packed with more talent and upside. The DeMarco Murray touchdown run in Week 3 against the Seahawks (how’s that hamstring, DeMarco?) was one of the most impressive runs I can recall seeing in the last couple years – both in terms of DeMarco’s ability to get to the edge, and in terms of the blocking scheme and tenacity. The Texans have a strong run defense, and J.J. Watt can be destructive, but the Titans’ offensive line should win this battle. The one thing that makes it difficult to actually go here in DFS is the workload split we have seen so far, with Murray seeing 14, 10, and 15 touches, compared to six, 14, and 14 for Henry. On the off chance Henry misses this week’s game, DeMarco becomes an excellent option; but if both guys are healthy, it will be tough to roster either outside of deep tourneys, with volume so iffy.
Marcus Mariota will have his work cut out for him in this one, in a tough road environment, but while his floor is too low to consider him in cash games, he has a nice ceiling in this spot – given the struggles the Texans have had on the back end, the weapons the Titans have, and the ability Mariota has to break off a big gain with his legs. He’s a risky, high-upside tourney option.
The same goes for Mariota’s pass catchers. Delanie Walker has the most difficult matchup, as the Texans annually do well against the tight end, but he should see five or six targets, and he has the ability to produce in tough spots. The better bets are Rishard Matthews, or Corey Davis if he’s healthy (addendum: Davis has been ruled out). With Eric Decker looking like a ghost of his former self and Taywan Taylor not yet ready to contribute in a big way, Mariota leaned on Matthews last week to the tune of 10 targets (two weeks after giving nine targets to Matthews, and 10 to Corey Davis). The Texans are struggling to defend the perimeter, making Matthews and Davis solid tourney options if both guys play, and making Matthews a borderline cash option if Davis misses again.
This is not a premier spot for offense, and I’m not as certain in this game hitting the Over as I was last week with the Browns and Colts (the Texans do have a good defense, and they do have a rookie quarterback as well). But I expect at least a couple of strong DFS scores to emerge from this game.
Guys I like in cash games: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkings
Guys I like in tourneys: Both of the above, plus: Lamar Miller, Marcus Mariota, Rishard Matthews
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.
DraftKings NFL Reid Option
DeAndre Hopkins vs TEN ($6400 DK, $7300 FD, $12,100 FDRFT) – Nuk’s 40% team target share leads the NFL by seven points, his 384 air yards and 43% market share of air yards are both top-five marks, and he’s first in the league in total targets and tied for third in receptions. If his volume were any higher, we’d all be deaf. And yet, he’s priced as just the WR10 on the DraftKings main slate at a nice 69% of the cost of the WR1. Like Bitcoin, you don’t want to wait until the price skyrockets to buy.
BobbyFi Expert Insight
DeShaun Watson – as I write this, I am very curious as to what ownership will look like for Watson. He was solid (for the price) in a difficult matchup versus Cincinnati and played really well against the Pats last week too. Now Watson faces a Titans team that has an awful secondary, one that just let Seattle (who previously couldn’t score) go off last week. It was nice to see that Wilson and Baldwin were able to get going, and I think you will see something similar with Watson and Hopkins this week. On the season, Tennessee has allowed seven throwing TDs and two rushing TDs to QBs, and that’s against two lousy offenses and only one good one. Plus, Watson has shown a solid floor because of his legs. Like I said, I love the Watson/Hopkins combo this week and my exposure there will depend on Gimino’s ownership projections; right now he’s projected to be 15% on DK and 10% on FD. However, at only $5,100 on DK and an affordable $7,300 on FD, I will be at least double the field on the rookie QB. Watson is a great GPP play, though there are others who are better suited for cash.
Meansy53 Expert Insight
Rishard Matthews – we will definitely need to get salary relief from at least two of our wide receivers in cash games on DraftKings, and Rishard Matthews is my favorite cheap guy to target. Through the first three weeks of the season, he leads the Titans with a 25% market share of targets. He is also tied with Eric Decker for the most red zone targets (4) on the team. Despite going up against a good defense this week in the Texans, I am not shying away from him at all in my cash games. We are only a week removed from him catching six balls for 87 yards and a touchdown against a good Seahawks defense. Besides, the Texans are only ranked 19th in pass defense DVOA so far this year; not exactly something we should be avoiding. The price on Matthews has barely budged and, quite frankly, we just don’t have many players on DraftKings this week that will see his kind of opportunity for such a cheap price tag. At this point in the week, in terms of cash game roster construction, Matthews seems like a lock to me on DraftKings.