RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 9
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner. Thoughts from other RotoGrinders Premium contributors are also included.
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Chiefs at Cowboys
Vegas-Implied Total: Chiefs 26.0, Cowboys 25.0
KEY MATCHUPS:
Cowboys Run D – 30th DVOA / 24th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O – 2nd DVOA / 3rd Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D – 19th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chiefs Pass O – 2nd DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt
Chiefs Run D – 31st DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O – 1st DVOA / 2nd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D – 20th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cowboys Pass O – 12th DVOA / 18th Yards per pass attempt
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This is one of the most exciting games of the week, with an Over/Under that shot from 48.5 up to 51.0 shortly after this game was posted, and with a pair of excellent offenses taking on a pair of suspect defenses. Although Dallas ranks 17th in pace of play and Kansas City ranks 30th, they rank eighth and third, respectively, in yards per game, while ranking fifth and third in points per game. Only two teams are allowing more yards per game than the Chiefs, while the Cowboys and Chiefs both rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game.
Further contributing to the cause for excitement in this game is the fact that each offense flows through a narrow band of players.
This is particularly true on the Cowboys’ side of the ball, where Dez Bryant ranks first in the NFL in red zone targets, second in targets inside the 10-yard-line, and fourth in percentage share of team air yards. He is taking on a Chiefs pass defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards and the most touchdowns to wide receivers. Although the Chiefs’ man-heavy coverage scheme is leading to a completion rate to wide receivers of only 53.1%, this same coverage scheme is leading to lots of big plays when passes are completed. Everything lines up great for Dez this week, and he is somehow only $6400 on DraftKings and $7700 on FanDuel, making him one of the top plays on the slate.
While the Chiefs’ pass defense has been attackable (20th in DVOA, 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt), this team has been especially porous on the ground – yielding the fourth-most yards per rush attempt, and ranking 31st in DVOA – and with Ezekiel Elliott returning this week, this is a great week for the Cowboys to continue pounding away on the ground as well. The Cowboys rank 28th in passing play percentage on the season, the Cowboys’ offensive line ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards, and while Zeke has only one catch in three consecutive games, he has 26 or more carries in each of those games. He has had at least 25 touches in every game since Week 2 at Denver, and with this once again being potentially the last time the Cowboys will be able to use him for six weeks, we should expect another massive workload.
I like Dak Prescott quite a bit in this spot – in what I expect to turn into a shootout – and my pull toward him is even stronger in tourneys for the fact that people are overreacting to the news of Zeke being back; while everyone was excited to use Dak and Dez when it looked like Zeke would be suspended, the public seems to be forgetting that they would have liked Dak and Dez in this matchup no matter what.
While I like the passing attack for the Cowboys, I’m not particularly interested in weapons beyond Dez, as Brice Butler, Terrance Williams, and Cole Beasley are seeing far too little work to be on my radar, and Jason Witten has the toughest matchup – vs a KC defense that has allowed big yardage to tight ends this year, but has allowed only 30 receptions to the position (eighth-best in the league). Because “explosive downfield plays” is not really Witten’s game, he’ll have a tough time reaching value in this spot.
The Chiefs’ passing attack is likely to go overlooked, as it does every week, because people are still stuck on the old Alex Smith, who came into the year with only six 300-yard games across 12 NFL seasons. This is a new story, however, as Smith has three such games this year alone, and has tossed 16 touchdowns to zero interceptions. He’s a strong tourney play on this slate, and he is even viable in cash games.
Part of the story of Smith’s success is the Chiefs’ willingness to draw up heavy usage for Travis Kelce. Kelce has three games this year of double-digit targets, and he has seen at least seven targets in all but two games. He has cracked 100 yards in three of seven games, and he was two yards shy in another. This week, he takes on a Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the tight end. While there are always affordable tight end options to like, paying up for Kelce is a viable move in both cash games and tourneys.
Elsewhere through the air for Kansas City, Tyreek Hill has exactly six to eight targets in every game this year – which makes him an overpriced commodity from an “expectation” standpoint, though we have seen twice this year (in Weeks 1 and 7) that he can post a big game even without big usage. Tyreek is likelier to hit in this spot than in some others, as the Cowboys’ pass defense ranks 19th in DVOA. He has hit (and failed) against teams that play man-heavy and teams that play zone-heavy, and he has hit (and failed) in good matchups and bad. You take on risk when you roster him, but the upside in tourneys is definitely there. With Chris Conley and Albert Wilson both out, Demarcus Robinson will also be locked into – at minimum – an 80% snap rate. Robinson is taking over a role in this offense that is basically fourth on the totem pole, behind Hunt, Kelce, and Hill – a role we were not targeting in DFS when Conley or Wilson had it – but he is an intriguing salary saver if you are in a bind, as he should see around six targets in a winnable matchup.
The last place to look in this game is the Chiefs’ backfield, where Kareem Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yards, and ranks first in yards per rush attempt among the 23 backs who have over 80 carries on the season. This is basically what you are rostering Hunt for: efficiency. He has seen 18 or fewer carries in five of eight games already this year, and he has three or fewer catches in half his games (while not yet topping five catches in a game). This is simply part of being in an Andy Reid offense: maddeningly thin usage compared to other players with similar talent (and a similar DFS price tag). Hunt steps into one of the best matchups in the league this weekend, against a Cowboys run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt, and he has a shot at a monster game. I may not end up paying his price tag myself, as I want a guy with more guaranteed touches (and more targets) if I am paying this much – but I fully expect a strong game from Hunt, with upside for a monster outing, making him a strong option in all formats this week
Guys I Like In Cash Games: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant, Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce
*Guys I Like In Tourneys: All of the above, plus: Demarcus Robinson, Tyreek Hill
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, positional spotlights, and much more.
RotoGrinders Expert Survey
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
Stevietpfl: Dak and Dez – I originally had these two before the Elliott news, and now I’m hoping they’re lower owned. It’s still a really good matchup for Dez, and Elliott should open it up even more for him. I think people are going to overreact to the news, and it’s really going to benefit my love for this combo.
TheSeige: Dak to Dez – Don’t get cute here; Peters doesn’t shadow and WR #1s have had their way against the Chiefs. Two TDs for Dez could be very likely this weekend.
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: The Chiefs can score in an instant and the Cowboys may turn to a more pass-heavy game plan this week. The total for this game is already up to 51 points and that still seems a bit low. Both defenses are ranked below the league average in DVOA against the pass.
Who will you be most overweight on compared to the field and why?
STLCardinals84: Lamar Miller – I am buying the positive game script, as Houston checks in as heavy favorites over the Colts. Deshaun Watson suffered a season ending injury in Thursday’s practice, and the wide receivers are EXTREMELY expensive on all sites. I’ll play the GPP fade on those guys and double down by hoping Miller has a big game. He should get plenty of work now that the quarterback situation has hit the skids.
Automattek Absolutes by Davis Mattek
Alex Smith – If you were to begin randomly asking people on Twitter (or at any random football stadium) who they thought had the most standard league fantasy points this year, I would imagine that exactly 0.0% of people would say that the answer was Alex Smith and 100% of them would be wrong. He is not the top scoring per game especially on DK where he rarely hits the 300-yard bonus but his statistical profile this year has been absurd. His worst game came last week against a very good Denver defense in a game that the Chiefs were also trailing most of the way. In this game, the Chiefs are road underdogs, which is usually a recipe for more pass attempts, which is a recipe for more fantasy points.
In Alex’s Chiefs’ career, they have been underdogs by 3 or more points on 18 occasions. In those games, he averages over 7 more passing attempts per contest than in his normal Chiefs split and 40 more yards per contest as well. That was how the lined opened for this game on most books before the Zeke Elliot news and I don’t really think Zeke is worth more than 1 or 2 points to a line if that. This could be a game where the closing line is very informative.
The Dallas defense has been fairly middle of the road this year but they are also not playing the super ball control style that they have in the past because the team is structured a little differently. That should likely take another hit this week as the team will be without Ezekiel Elliot which should force the ball into the air more they would like. That should generate extra plays for both the Cowboys and the Chiefs. I am not crazy about Alex on a week-to-week basis for fantasy but in a game with a 51 total and moving line depending on book/time of day makes me believe that we are due for some scoring and the Chiefs have been capable of that all year long
WR/CB Matchup Analysis by Chris Gimino
Dez Bryant vs. Kenneth Acker / Chiefs Pass D
UPDATE: Zeke is back in case you haven’t heard, and that could change the outlook for Dez to some degree. That mactup remains an upgrade, but the probability of volume takes a hit.
The Chiefs have turned to Kenneth Acker to help correct some woes in the secondary. He’s been targeted with frequency and based on alignment that should be the case again this week. He sports a negative coverage rating from PlayerProfiler.com, and based on sheer logic can’t be very good if it took him this long to get on the field this season.
The Cowboys will have to shift their identity to some degree without Ezekiel Elliot, and they just so happen to have 2 Lamborghini’s parked in the garage ready to fire up. Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant will truly have the chance to strut, and the run game is still in fine shape with two veteran backs. To me, that means the opponent will still have to respect the run, opening up opportunity in the passing game. Dez Bryant leads the NFL in Red Zone target share, End Zone Target Share, and still commands a 28% share of team targets. Should the Cowboys elect to remove the restrictor plate from their Hot Rod QB/WR duo, I would say it is very fair to expect much better production from them going forward. This matchup looks like a fine spot to take a test drive.