(USA TODAY Sports)`The NCAA Tournament is down to the Sweet 16 after the top-3 seeds in each region advanced for the first time since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011. With so many strong teams still remaining, there isn’t one double-digit favorite on the betting line for Thursday and Friday’s games. Who will advance to the Elite 8 and Final Four?
Our Thomas Casale and Matt Schmitto give their Sweet 16 picks in the South Region, where top seed Virginia faces red-hot Oregon.
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South Region
Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Purdue, 146
Casale: This should a tight, hard-fought game but I’m going with Purdue in a slight upset. The Boilermakers have been playing their best basketball over the last month. For some reason they can’t beat Minnesota, but other than two losses to the Gophers, Purdue has won eight straight. I’ve been really impressed with the Boilermakers first two tournament games where they trounced Old Dominion and Villanova.
Purdue ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency by KenPom. I’ve been on Tennessee all season but I think Carsen Edwards and Purdue win a close one here. I also lean to the Over 146 points. These are two of KenPom’s top-5 teams in offensive efficiency with Tennessee coming in third. I see something like an 82-77 Purdue win, as the Boilermakers advance to the Elite 8.
Schmitto: Even though the Big Ten is 10-5 ATS, and the SEC is just 4-8 ATS so far this tournament, I like Rick Barnes’ Tennessee team. He has done one of the best coaching jobs this season. He’s a finalist for the Naismith Award, and rightfully so. This Vols team doesn’t have one Top 100 recruit, but they’ve still managed to have one of the best seasons in school history, including a 19-game win streak during the regular season.
I think a lot of people are scared away from backing the Vols after two close games. They struggled during the first half of their 77-70 win over Colgate in Round 1, and then they had to go to overtime with Iowa after blowing a 21-point lead. It won’t be easy, but I think Barnes can come up with a game plan to slow Edwards down a little bit. When Edwards struggles, Purdue gets into trouble. I already have Tennessee -1 and I lean Over, like you. It should be an exciting, fast-paced game to tip off the Sweet 16.
Casale: Yeah, this is going to be a tight game. I agree the Over may be the strongest play in this matchup.
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Virginia (-8) vs. Oregon, 119
Casale: A lot of people like Oregon plus the points in this game but I’m going the other way with Virginia. I think the Cavaliers played tight in the first half against Gardner-Webb after losing to a 16 seed last year. Since then, Virginia has looked like the team that went 31-3 this season. Oregon is playing great but they haven’t faced a team in the same hemisphere as Virginia during its 10-game winning streak.
The Cavs rank third in defensive efficiency, while the Ducks are just 74th in offensive efficiency. For me, Virginia’s defense will be the difference in this matchup. Oregon hangs around but Virginia pulls away in the second half to win by 10+ points. I don’t have a strong lean on the total. I got Virginia winning 70-55, so I lean Over, but I’m not playing the total in this game.
Schmitto: Virginia had the whole country believing lightning might strike twice after that first half against Gardner-Webb. And then we have Oregon, who is the hottest team in the tournament thanks to some amazing late-season adjustments by head coach Dana Altman. They wouldn’t even be in the NCAA Tournament if it wasn’t for winning the Pac-12 tournament.
With that said, I’m with you on Virginia -8. Oregon is definitely a different team than we saw earlier in the year, but Virginia is a different animal than Wisconsin or UC Irvine. I think Virginia’s shooters show up and that Tony Bennett defense will be too much for Oregon to cover the spread. I see Virginia scoring enough to go Over 118.
Casale: I thought you were going Oregon here. Now, if you pick Michigan to beat Texas Tech in the West Region, I may fall out of my chair.
Schmitto: Hopefully we can actually win a game that we’re on the same side of, unlike that Kansas-Auburn game…
Casale: Thanks for bringing that up. The Kansas ML. Oh well, that will be a story I tell for the next 20 years.
Which team do you like to reach the Final Four?
Casale: I’m going with Virginia. Like I said, I think they got rid the pressure of losing to a 16 seed in the opening game. The Cavs have been one of the best teams in the country all year and I don’t see Oregon, Purdue or Tennessee beating them. A potential rematch versus UNC in the Final Four awaits for Virginia.
Schmitto: I liked Virginia until you said you like them. I’m not going to let that scare me too much, though. They’ve still got far superior talent than the rest of the teams in the South, so there’s no need to get fancy. Purdue or Tennessee have it in them to upset Virginia, but I just don’t see it happening this year.
Casale: After that comment, I’m rooting against Texas Tech. Go Michigan!
Schmitto: Casale just said “Go Michigan!”? I think I did the impossible. I should get some type of bonus.
Casale: If you can’t beat ’em, bet ’em.