(USA TODAY Sports)`The NCAA Tournament is down to the Sweet 16 after the top-3 seeds in each region advanced for the first time since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011. With so many strong teams still remaining, there isn’t one double-digit favorite on the betting line for Thursday and Friday’s games. Who will advance to the Elite 8 and Final Four?
Our Thomas Casale and Matt Schmitto give their Sweet 16 picks in the West Region, where top seed Gonzaga has a tough road to the Final Four.
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West Region
Gonzaga (-7) vs. Florida State, 147
Casale: I’m really looking forward to watching this game. FSU defeated Gonzaga in the tournament last year and now the Bulldogs get a shot at revenge. I think they get it. It may look on the surface that seven points is too much to lay in this game. However, FSU has not performed well against the top teams they have faced this year. The Seminoles are 1-4 SU versus Duke, North Carolina and Virginia, with three of those loses coming by 10 points or more. FSU had way more talent than Murray State but that won’t be the case here. I like Gonzaga to win this game rather easily 88-74. I’ll be on the Zags and the over as my two top plays for Thursday.
Schmitto: Florida State might be the second hottest team in the tournament (behind Oregon), but consider this: FSU made 31 of 37 free throws against Vermont and then shot 11 of 27 from the arc against Murray State. This is after shooting only 72 percent from the strip during ACC play and shooting 33.5 percent from three during the regular season. FSU can’t keep this up and Gonzaga’s offense, which has scored 80+ points in each of the first two games, isn’t slowing down…yet.
Gonzaga’s Rui Hachimura is a lock to become the first Japanese player drafted into the NBA, but before that he’s got two more collegiate games to play. I’m all over Gonzaga -7
Casale: Good. I’m doubling bet.
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Michigan (-2) vs. Texas Tech, 126
Casale: This is going to be an absolute bloodbath between two of the nation’s top defensive teams. I thought Michigan was a little overrated coming into the Tournament but that doesn’t appear to be the case after the Wolverines routed Montana and Florida thanks to their suffocating defense.
Texas Tech’s beatdown of Buffalo was one of the most impressive performances of the entire tournament. The Red Raiders rank first and defensive efficiency and Michigan is second. Whichever team can avoid long scoring droughts will win. I lean Texas Tech in a mild upset but I won’t be touching the side or total in this game, personally.
And now, I give you Texas Tech alum Matt Schmitto…
Schmitto: Well, we all know what’s coming here. Texas Tech is going to smash Michigan. Seriously. These are the two best teams in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and Michigan has a slightly more efficient offense for the season. What people don’t realize is how much better Texas Tech’s offense got towards the end of the year. They went from a sub-100 team in offensive efficiency at the halfway point to top 40 by tournament time.
Michigan won’t be able to keep up with lottery pick Jarrett Culver and point guard Davide Moretti, aka Spaghetti Moretti, aka the Italian Stallion, who happens to be one of most efficient shooters left in the tournament. This should be time to hedge against my 75/1 Texas Tech futures ticket, but I’m taking my horse to the old town road, I’m gonna ride till I can’t no more…
Casale: Smash Michigan? Keep in mind this is coming from a guy who watches the games in a Patrick Mahomes jersey.
Schmitto: Tech over UM, Gonzaga, Duke and UNC/UVA. You heard it here first. I’m not a homer at all.
Casale: No, not at all.
Which team do you like to reach the Final Four?
Casale: Gonzaga. Duke has the best player but I think Gonzaga and UNC are the two best overall teams. The Zags don’t have an easy road to the Final Four though. FSU, Michigan and Texas Tech are three of the top defensive teams in the country. I won’t be surprised at all if the winner of the Michigan-Texas Tech game upends Gonzaga but I’ll still side with the Bulldogs to reach the Final Four.
Schmitto: So long as FSU doesn’t upset Gonzaga, we’re guaranteed a great offensive-defensive clash in the Elite 8. Gonzaga has the most efficient offense in the nation and, as you already mentioned, Texas Tech and Michigan are the top two defenses in the country. Should be exciting to watch.