RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 3
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports. To access the NFL Edge in its entirety, take our Premium package out for a free, seven-day test drive!
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Colts vs. Chargers
“Chalk eater.”
I texted a buddy to say I thought Phillip Dorsett would have a big week this week. That was his response.
Okay, so it’s true. Dorsett is not going to sneak by the masses. But with Donte Moncrief set to miss this game, we have a talented wide receiver suddenly stepping into a big role (eight to ten targets) on a great offense, in what projects to be a high-scoring game. In order to make the case for this game as “high-scoring,” however, I guess we first have to look at the matchup on the other side…
Darius Butler
Vontae Davis
Patrick Robinson
T.J. Green
Clayton Geathers
That’s the list of guys missing in action in the Colts’ secondary. Vontae Davis is a borderline-shutdown corner (note: he did “return to practice” this week, though at the moment he still looks unlikely to play). Patrick Robinson was actually a strong, underrated addition to this secondary. But already, this projected to be a pass defense to attack this year. Now that they are down to assorted spare parts (some of which were pulled out of the dumpster over the last couple weeks), this has become THE defense to target through the air. Especially with this game being played on the fast surface of Lucas Oil Stadium, the upside is there for Philip Rivers and the Chargers to let it rip.
The reason it is important for the Colts to have a poor secondary in order for us to have interest in the Colts’ offense is, quite simply, the Chargers’ secondary is excellent. While talent is part of their success, scheme is another big part, and last year, the Chargers showed up in a big way by finishing as a top five defense in terms of limiting wide receiver fantasy production. And sure, part of this was that the Chargers’ run defense was just so bad (which has not changed in any appreciable way), but another part of this was that Jason Verrett can shut down one side of the field (Verrett rated out as Pro Football Focus’ number one cornerback last year), which enables the Chargers to shift extra attention to the other side of the field. While the Chargers lost the aforementioned Patrick Robinson this offseason in the slot, they actually managed to upgrade at that spot by bringing over Casey Hayward from the Packers (through two weeks, Hayward is PFF’s number three corner across the NFL). The Chargers’ secondary rounds out with Brandon Flowers, who appears to be back to form after a down year last year. This is not generally a unit we want to go out of our way to attack – as was put on full display last weekend when both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns disappointed fantasy owners who chose to disregard the talent on the Chargers’ back end.
I get a bit carried away sometimes, huh? That’s an in-depth exploration of the reason we “only want to target the Colts’ offense if their defense can be expected to allow points” – but there you go. You now have all the info.
Last week, we talked about how the Chargers were not going to come out and play dead just because they had lost Keenan Allen. We saw that play out with Philip Rivers notching 220 yards and four touchdowns on only 24 pass attempts! With Andrew Luck, at home, on the other side, we should see the Colts put up more points while the game is still in question than the Jags were able to last week, which will lead to Rivers having to throw more than 24 times. While the target totals for both Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin (six apiece) seem low, it’s more valuable for us to look at target percentage in this instance. Each guy grabbed 25% of the total targets Rivers put out there, which bodes well if Rivers has to throw 36 times – as is likely to be the case this week. Each guy can be projected for around nine targets, with Tyrell obviously the guy likeliest to go overlooked by the masses after Benjamin went off last weekend (and with both guys standing out as strong plays). Antonio Gates is also an intriguing option in this spot, as he will be the primary red zone target for Philip Rivers (the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, and Gates gets end zone looks). Gates’ yardage ceiling is lower this week than a few other tight ends on the board, but his touchdown ceiling is as high as anyone.
The other interesting item to dig into on this side of the ball is Melvin Gordon. Gordon has legitimately looked like a solid NFL running back this season, and with Danny Woodhead now out for the year, Gordon should have an opportunity to shine. Last week, Gordon was given the ball 24 times, and I could easily see the Chargers focusing on the run more in the absence of Keenan Allen – especially on weeks (such as this one) in which they are likely to be successful with that approach. If the Colts have a tough time scoring against the Chargers’ secondary, this could become another “Gordon game.” Although the Chargers added Dexter McCluster this week (and although McCluster has a history in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense), Gordon looked good in the pass game last week, grabbing three of three targets for 18 yards. Most importantly here, we are highly unlikely to see McCluster siphoning early-down work from Gordon the way Woodhead did, which means that, at worst, Gordon is a two-down thumper in this spot, with upside to be involved in all aspects of the game. Gordon is not going to be sneaky this week – but with most people likely to think they have to “choose between” Gordon and Chargers pass catchers, we could see ownership drop on him a bit, and I would not at all mind targeting Gordon and a pass catcher, as there should be plenty of opportunity for all components in this offense to eat, in what may be the best matchup they will face all season.
On the Colts’ side, it is a bit more difficult to figure out exactly how this game will play out. While Quan Bray will now step into three-wide sets, I hesitate to assume he will suddenly have a big impact in this offense. This leaves us looking to T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett, as the Colts presumably are stuck remaining aggressive in this one in an effort to keep up with the points being scored by the Chargers’ offense.
Ultimately, I expect to see a lot of targets for Hilton and Dorsett, with low efficiency – much like what we saw last week from the Jaguars. This makes neither guy a “must play” in my mind – and from a strategy standpoint, it certainly makes the “fade Dorsett chalk” a viable idea. But given how low-priced Dorsett is, and the role he will have in this offense in what is likely to be the highest-scoring game on the weekend, I also will not argue against Dorsett at all.
Hilton is a bit tougher. He’ll probably go lower-owned in tourneys as the higher-priced guy. But he’ll also have a tougher time reaching value in a quietly difficult matchup.
While Frank Gore is also in play here (the matchup is premium against the Chargers), I have a hard time seeing him as a “tournament-winner.” The usage floor is solid, but the upside is limited.
Perhaps the most interesting guy is Dwayne Allen. The Colts are likely to go with more “12” personnel now that they have lost Donte Moncrief (two tight ends, two wide receivers), which will lead to Allen having more work in the pass game. He has the best matchup among the Colts’ pass catchers, against a team that ranked 31st last year in DVOA against the tight end.
A final note on this game: John Pagano is the defensive coordinator of the Chargers. His brother Chuck is the head coach of the Colts. That is not actionable information in any way, shape, or form. But it is interesting, so there you go.
Viable Cash Game Targets: Philip Rivers, Travis Benjamin, Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gates (if active), Dwayne Allen
Viable Tournament Targets: All guys listed above, plus… Tyrell Williams, Phillip Dorsett, T.Y. Hilton
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Below you will find a couple of writeups taken from our Premium. We have a lot of premium content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.
FanDuel – ChrisGimino’s Correlation Game of the Week
Why put this game under the Microscope?: The Colts are somewhat skilled on offense, but lacking tremendously on the defensive side of the ball. Andrew Luck remains competent enough to produce huge fantasy performances against any lower tier defense. The Chargers attack remains fantasy relevant even after devastating injuries to their two key offensive skill position players. Philip Rivers’ pre-snap prowess and no-fear mentality should bode well against a severely short-handed secondary and low-rated front seven. Vegas has this pegged as a close game inside a domed stadium. All of this amounts to a potential shoot-out with top quality QBs facing off against beatable defensive units.
Key Offensive Matchups for the Colts: WR Phillip Dorsett vs. Chargers Secondary. RB Frank Gore and Colts Offensive Line vs. Chargers front seven.
Key Offensive Matchups for the Chargers: RB Melvin Gordon vs. Colts front seven. WRs Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams vs. Colts Secondary. TE Antonio Gates (if active) vs. Colts Linebackers and Safeties.
DraftKings – Notorious’ QB Spotlight: Cash Game Highlight
Andrew Luck: $7,600 vs. Chargers
Before the season began, I had Luck pegged as one of my favorite bounce-back candidates. While he turns the ball over a bit too often, he’s basically all the Colts have. With Frank Gore as your starting running back, you have no choice but to lean on your quarterback. In addition to being a pass-heavy offense, the Colts need to score a ton of points to keep up with their opponents. Their defense is currently ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ (FO) total defense DVOA. The Chargers have a solid corner in Logan Verrett, but their pass defense is mediocre at best. Luck and the Colts currently have the third highest implied team total (27 points) on the board. I’m typically not an advocate of paying up for quarterbacks in cash games, but there is plenty of value at running back. Luck did lose one of his best weapons in Donte Moncrief, but Phillip Dorsett is a stud receiver out of Miami that will see an increased role in this offense. Luck should air it out 40+ times for the third straight week and I like his chances of reaching that 300-yard bonus on DraftKings.