RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 5
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner. Thoughts from other RotoGrinders Premium contributors are also included.
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Packers at Cowboys
Vegas-Implied Total: Cowboys 27.25, Packers 25.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Cowboys Run D – 28th DVOA / 17th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 5th DVOA / 25th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D – 21st DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 12th DVOA / 17th Yards per pass attempt
Packers Run D – 19th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O – 6th DVOA / 6th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D – 15th DVOA / 17th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cowboys Pass O – 19th DVOA / 25th Yards per pass attempt
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In what is obviously the top spot on the weekend for offense (and unless Marcus Mariota makes a surprise start this week, it’s not even close between this game and any other on the main slate), we have a lot of question marks that could shift the way this week looks:
1) Davante Adams appears surprisingly likely to play this week, after his scary concussion/neck injury. He’s with the team, and while he has not cleared all concussion hurdles, he seems on track to do so.
2) Ty Montgomery appears surprisingly likely to play at least a bit this week, after breaking his ribs. If Montgomery plays, he cannot be counted on for a full workload. If Montgomery is out, it appears that Jamaal Williams will be back, so there is no certainty regarding the backfield workload split between Williams and Aaron Jones.
3) Ezekiel Elliott may yet be suspended as of Sunday’s game. If that is the case, we literally have no clue at the moment whether it will be Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden in the backfield. With McFadden a healthy scratch of late, the smart money is on Morris, but this would not be the first time a guy went from “healthy scratch” to “starter” after a starting running back was taken out of action. If Zeke misses, we’ll hope that beat writers uncover some certainty on the backfield split before Sunday rolls around.
I’ll attack this writeup with three assumptions: 1) Davante will play; 2) At least two Packers running backs will be healthy; 3) Zeke is allowed to participate in this game. If Davante does not play, Geronimo Allison becomes a viable value play; if Aaron Jones is surprisingly the only healthy running back, he can be counted on for workhorse usage and becomes an immediate top option; and if Zeke does not play, we’ll look to Cowboys beat writers to save us.
As we have seen each of the last two weeks – first with Larry Fitzgerald thrashing the Cowboys while J.J. Nelson and Jaron Brown disappointed, then with Cooper Kupp going to work against the Cowboys while Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins disappointed – the best way to attack the Cowboys is on the interior. The entire Cowboys defense is built around the idea of filtering targets to the middle of the field, so in this spot, Randall Cobb and Martellus Bennett have the top matchup. Martellus has disappointed so far, with a yardage high of 47 and with no touchdowns, but he has seen three targets inside the 10-yard-line, and he has seen six or more targets in all but one game this year, making him a top tight end option this week. Randall Cobb should jump back up to eight-plus targets himself after seeing only four looks last week, making him a solid-floor option with a bit of upside.
Typically, I would avoid perimeter receivers altogether against the Cowboys, but Jordy Nelson led the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard-line last year, and he ranks third so far this year – with four targets, which he has turned into four touchdowns. He’s always in play for how much Rodgers likes throwing to him when the Packers get close to the end zone. Even at an affordable price in an Aaron Rodgers offense, Adams feels a little too expensive against a defense that is designed to take away his routes, but his quarterback and his scoring upside keep him in the conversation. As mentioned above: Allison – at an even cheaper price – becomes a more intriguing option if Davante misses. (It probably goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: Aaron Rodgers is one of the top options on the slate, if you can fit him on your roster.)
The Cowboys have been all over the place this year in terms of offensive approach, with as few as 18 pass attempts in one game, and as many as 50 pass attempts in another. Through four weeks, Dallas ranks 12th in passing play percentage – after ranking 32nd last year. With Aaron Rodgers running things on the other side, I expect the Cowboys to at least land in the 33 to 35 pass attempts range, which is enough to bring Dak Prescott into play as well. I don’t think I will significantly upgrade or downgrade Dak if Zeke is suspended, as the Cowboys will probably pass a bit more without Zeke, but it will also be tougher to pass, as opponents won’t have to worry quite as much about the run game.
While Dak is a notable play, the most exciting play in this game is Dez Bryant, who ranks sixth in percentage of team air yards, while boasting the most targets in the NFL inside the 10-yard-line. Through the first four games of the year, Dez has faced Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib, Patrick Peterson, and Trumaine Johnson. Outside of the game against Arizona (in which Dak threw only 18 times – and Dez was blanketed by Peterson), Dez has seen at least nine targets each game. This is the first non-awful matchup Dez has had, and he should have no trouble beasting in this spot. He’s a cash game staple on DraftKings where he is priced way too cheaply, and he’s a top option on FanDuel as well.
Part of the reason Dez is so valuable is because so little else in the Cowboys’ passing attack is worth paying attention to. Brice Butler is not being given more than two targets per game, as the Cowboys like to keep Terrance Williams on the field for his blocking. Williams is seeing five to six targets per game, but he’s not a downfield threat, and he doesn’t get looks near the end zone, which severely limits his upside. And Jason Witten is a #dadrunner who needs volume in order to succeed; he may get volume in this one, which makes him tourney-viable, but that volume is not bankable.
As with Aaron Rodgers above, it goes without saying that Ezekiel Elliott is one of the top running back plays on the slate if he plays – but I’ll say it anyway: if Zeke plays, he’s one of the top running back plays on the slate.
This game is the highlight of the day for DFS, and you will definitely want to make sure you have some action from this game on a large chunk of your Week 5 bankroll.
Guys I Like in Cash Games: Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant
Guys I Like in Tourneys: All of the above, plus: Jordy Nelson, Jason Witten
Expert Survey — NFL Premium
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
STLCardinals84: Packers/Cowboys game stack – There are a number of ways to play this, but this is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week. If you think Dallas will play with a lead, fire up Ezekiel Elliott along with the Green Bay passing game. If you think Green Bay will play with a lead, fire up the Packers’ running game (depending on who is healthy) along with Dez Bryant.
TheSeige: Packers/Cowboys – This game has all the makings of your classic shootout, with Elliott on one side and the Rodgers/Nelson stack, or even the contrarian Dez/Nelson stack. It’s the highest total on the slate for a reason.