Matchup of the Week: Chiefs at Packers, Week 3
In the “Matchup of the Week” NFL analysts JMToWin and LeoTPP dive head first into one marquee matchup to give you all the DFS angles. This week the focus is on the Chiefs at Packers, a 49-point total potential shootout on Monday Night Football.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
This is an interesting weekend for matchups, across the board in the NFL. Offenses with higher point-scoring expectations are either playing good defenses (such as the Eagles against the Jets) or have their point expectations tempered a bit by blowout concerns (such as the Patriots against the Jaguars). As such, the “highest over/under on the week” is set at a far more modest level than we normally see, with the total in this game set at 49. What we should realize is that this means there are not any true “must plays” this weekend, from any games. With that said, however: this is certainly an intriguing game to target.
The first thing we need to look at is the injuries on the Packers’ side.
If Eddie Lacy misses this game, James Starks steps in as an immediately viable play on Daily Fantasy sites, as he is a low-priced running back who will see all the snaps. “Opportunity” is one of the most important elements in predicting running back success in daily fantasy football, and Starks will have all the opportunity he can handle.
If Davante Adams sits out (which is not expected to be the case), Ty Montgomery would step into a prominent role, and would be worth rostering in both cash games and tournaments, as – again – his opportunity would be far higher than his price indicates, making him an excellent points-per-dollar play. Randall Cobb would also see a slight bump in usage.
Since the game script and game flow are unlikely to change much even if these injuries have an impact on who is on the field come Monday night, however, we are going to assume – for purposes of this article – that Lacy and Adams will both be suiting up.
The Packers are going to run the same offense regardless: running the ball to keep some balance, but otherwise taking to the air. This shapes up nicely for this matchup.
Last year, the Chiefs had some of the worst run defense marks according to Football Outsiders, but they still notched high marks according to Pro Football Focus. This was largely due to breakdowns on the defense as a whole that led to chunk gains, a problem the Chiefs have corrected this year. Through two weeks, the Chiefs have the number three run defense rank according to Football Outsiders, and they have the number two run defense rank according to Pro Football Focus. The Packers have graded out negatively in run blocking, and this means there is no reason for us to expect the Packers to do anything different from what they normally do: pass the ball, and let Aaron Rodgers do his thing.
The Chiefs’ pass rush will dictate that Rodgers needs to get the ball out quickly, and this could lead to a massive game from Randall Cobb, as he will be lining up in the slot and dominating the middle. Cobb is flying under the radar this week, and is a strong DFS play.
While Rodgers will primarily be working quickly, I also expect him to get Davante Adams involved this week (assuming Adams is on the field). We need to remember that Adams was one of our favorite plays in Week 1, and after he “disappointed” that week (with a still-solid game) and then faced off against Richard Sherman, we have all started to forget about him.
If Eddie Lacy is playing, I will be staying away from him at running back, as there is not enough upside – on paper – to justify his price, especially as he is hobbled. Is there a chance you could luck into a big game from him? Of course. But this play does not have a positive expected value over the long run.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are going to try to control the clock with their run game. The Chiefs already play at a fairly slow pace (which does not knock down our valuation of the Packers much at all, as the Packers are one of the most efficient offenses in football and are able to score quickly, on limited possessions), and this is what plays best against the Packers’ defense, as they are strong against the pass but are very poor against the run (26th in run defense according to Pro Football Focus; 32nd according to Football Outsiders). If the Chiefs are able to run the ball as effectively as they would like, their chances of staying in this game through the fourth quarter skyrockets.
Ultimately, we can expect the Chiefs to have enough success on the ground to keep the game close through at least the early portions of the second half. This lowers our valuation of Jeremy Maclin, who is the number three option in this offense, even if he is the number one receiver. As the Packers begin to expand their lead in the second half against the Chiefs’ less-stellar pass defense, however, the Chiefs will have to start passing more themselves.
As the Chiefs pass, Jamaal Charles will remain involved, and if you haven’t guessed already: He is one of the top running back plays on the weekend, as he will be heavily involved in a game of “keep-away” from Aaron Rodgers and will then be used as a pass catching option down the stretch, as the Chiefs are forced to catch up.
Travis Kelce will also be leaned on throughout, and he especially has a chance to explode once we reach the fourth quarter of this game, as the Chiefs start becoming more aggressive in an effort to catch up.
This game does not shape up to yield us any “unknown guys who could win your week,” but it does give us an under-the-radar Cobb in a great matchup, and a few other tremendous plays.
In summary:
Aaron Rodgers is one of the top QB plays on the weekend – with a high likelihood of finishing as the number one overall QB, as game flow, usage, and matchup should lead to a big game from him.
Randall Cobb should be used a bit more than normal as the Packers aim to combat the Chiefs pass rush.
Eddie Lacy will be unlikely to reach value if he plays; because James Starks is cheaper, he is a valuable fill-in based on opportunity.
James Jones is too much of a lottery ticket for me to want to rely on him, as he is heavily touchdown-dependent, and his price has been rising lately since he has been scoring touchdowns.
Davante Adams could easily surprise us with a big game in this one if he plays; if he does not play, Ty Montgomery practically becomes a must-play at his price.
We can expect Alex Smith to have to pass throughout the latter stages of the game, making him a viable “punt play” at quarterback.
The Chiefs offense should funnel entirely through Jamaal Charles, with close to three-quarters of run-heavy football, followed by pass game involvement (though… we are talking about Andy Reid here; just because this is what he should do does not necessarily mean it is what he will do!).
Travis Kelce will be a powerful weapon for the Chiefs in this one, as he will be more valuable to the Chiefs as a receiver than as a pass blocker as they try to stay in this game.
Jeremy Maclin is a viable dart-throw in tournaments, but if we played this game 100 times, he would disappoint you far more often than not in this game script.
As always, roster decisions are your own – but use this information to go forth and profit, and I’ll meet up with you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
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LeoTPP’s Chiefs at Packers Grind Down
The Odds
On Thursday evening, the oddsmakers in Vegas had this contest as a Packers victory by seven points, with a total of 49. Typically, a spread that big doesn’t lead to a great fantasy matchup, but in this instance, with such a high overall total, we can infer that both teams should score over 20 points in this contest. That makes it one of the more appealing fantasy destinations this week, as only the Seahawks and Patriots have higher implied totals than the Packers, and the Chiefs should then be playing from behind and pushing for points in a high-scoring affair.
Matchups by the Numbers
So where will the points be scored? If we go by fantasy points allowed totals since the start of last year, there aren’t many obvious areas to attack either team. The Chiefs rank 28th in points allowed to quarterbacks and running backs since Week 1 last year, and 25th to tight ends. The Packers are average or below average in points allowed to running backs, wideouts and tight ends over that same span.
The two “weaknesses” for these teams, Kansas City against wideouts and Green Bay against quarterbacks, register as only 12th and 14th respectively, meaning there are no glaring flaws to expose for either team.
But so far this year, things are a bit different. The Chiefs faced the musical-chairs quarterbacks of the Texans in Week 1 and still allowed over 300 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 2, they allowed a beat-up Peyton Manning to throw for 256 yards and three scores. Those stats combine to place the Chiefs in the top ten in points allowed to opposing signal callers, and they’ve obviously not yet faced a player at that position as good as Aaron Rodgers. And while the Chiefs were very good against quarterbacks last year, Jake Locker, Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson all went for over 20 FanDuel points against them.
The Packers held turnover-prone Jay Cutler in check in Week 1, but then allowed Russell Wilson to go for 23 FanDuel points in Week 2 thanks to his ability on the ground and through the air. Last season, two quarterbacks ran for scores against Green Bay, and six ran for at least 25 yards. The most successful quarterbacks against Green Bay included big names like Brees and Ryan, but also featured unexpected performances from Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater and Matthew Stafford, who all went over 20 FanDuel points against the Pack.
There are points to be found in the passing game, but what about on the ground? The Packers allowed Matt Forte to run and catch his way to a very impressive 25 FanDuel points in Week 1, but then limited Marshawn Lynch to under 8 points in Week 2. Last season, only four backs carried the ball for more than 72 yards in a game against Green Bay, but a lot of that had to do with game script, as the Packers were often scoring early and often, and forcing other teams to throw. The Chiefs may not be in a position to run as underdogs in this game, but they’ll have a favorable enough matchup if given the chance to carry the ball against Green Bay.
The Chiefs are not as favorable of a matchup for the ground game. Part of Kansas City’s success against the run this year has to be attributed to the quality of the runners they’ve faced, as Houston and Denver have injury and talent issues in their backfields and managed only 153 yards on 41 running back carries against the Chiefs. Last season, a healthy C.J. Anderson, Marshawn Lynch, Lamar Miller and even relative unknown Kerwynn Williams were among those to go over 100 yards against the Chiefs as a runner. But both this season and last, teams have been unable to get their backs involved in the passing game against Kansas City, as the Chiefs allowed the fewest receptions to running backs last year, and have allowed only four this year through two weeks.
Players to Target
You wouldn’t need to know a single thing about the Kansas City pass defense to be comfortable rostering Aaron Rodgers in daily fantasy football this week, but given the start they’ve had this year against opposing quarterbacks, and the Vegas odds favoring plenty of scoring for Green Bay, it’s easy to pencil in Rodgers as a top play at his position. The Chiefs are still without talented cover corner Sean Smith, and Jamell Fleming has been pressed into duty at corner and has been torched this season. That also brings Randall Cobb into play, as he did well against the strong Seattle defense and is one week healthier after suffering a preseason injury. The duo should connect for 100 yards and a score this week against a defense that allowed DeAndre Hopkins and Emmanuel Sanders to have big games in the first two weeks. The Kansas City run defense is too good to test with a backup like James Starks, and his ability in the passing game is nullified by KC’s strong numbers against receiving backs dating back to last year. An injured Eddie Lacy doesn’t sound appealing in this matchup, either.
On the Kansas City side, we know that the Packers aren’t great against running quarterbacks, and that’s something Alex Smith can take advantage of. He’s a sneaky tournament play in a game where he’ll be chasing the high-flying Packers and in need of airing it out. His top target in the passing game, Travis Kelce, is always in play as one of the three most talented options at a thin tight end position. The Packers don’t have terrible numbers against tight ends, but when faced with Martellus Bennett this season, and with Bennett, Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski a year ago, they gave up solid fantasy performances. Kelce is squarely in that tier of tight end, and will have room to work against the Chiefs. The expected flow of this game has me worried about Jamaal Charles, but the matchup is good enough to warrant playing him in tournaments.