NBA Grind Down: Thursday, October 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-20 02:36:38

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		208.5					Vegas Total		208.5
			Vegas Spread		13.0					Vegas Spread		-13.0
			Implied Team Total		97.8					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.6					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Jerian Grant	Justin Holiday	Paul Zipser	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Norman Powell	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent DRPM	0.62	-2.21	-1.29	0.84	0.71		Opponent DRPM	0.45	0.32	-0.09	N/A	0.24

Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

Bobby Portis (Out)
Nikola Mirotic (Out)
Zach LaVine (Out)
Kris Dunn (Out)
Cameron Payne (Out)

Even though there are only three games on the schedule, this is the first time this season that we will see each of these six teams. We’ll start with the Bulls, who project to be one of the worst teams in basketball. After nearly pulling an upset in the first round of the playoffs last year, Bulls’ management wisely decided to blow up the team (although they could have gotten a lot more for Jimmy Butler). In addition to Butler, Chicago also lost Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, and Michael Carter-Williams. Their two biggest acquisitions, Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn, will both start the season on the shelf.

The Raptors were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season. They ended the year ranking eighth in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. They played at a slow pace and imposed their will in the half-court. With a similar roster and the same head coach, we can expect more of the same this season. This clearly isn’t a good matchup for Chicago, but the vast number of injuries really opens the door for a number of players.

As you can see from above, Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic, Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, and Cameron Payne are all going to miss the first few games of the season. The Bulls are be extremely short-handed and could get blown out tonight by the Raptors. While that’s usually a concern, this is a small slate and it’s not like the Bulls have any starters that they’d want to limit in a blowout anyway.

I have to give props to the DFS sites for their pricing tonight. This collection of Bulls would typically be priced near the bare minimum given their talent level, but the sites have made it tougher to just plug player in. Jerian Grant played well in the preseason, but there are surprisingly quite a few options at point guard tonight. At his price, he’s strictly a tournament play. Justin Holiday should be the go-to scorer in this offense. If the Bulls keep this game close, it will likely be thanks to a big game from Holiday, who averaged 29 fantasy points per game in the preseason. At his elevated price point, he makes an excellent tournament play at what should be relatively low ownership.

Paul Zipser is going to soak up minutes at the three, but he’s never been a great per-minute producer. I’ll be looking elsewhere at the position, especially if he’s expected to carry decent ownership. I’d actually rather play Denzel Valentine off the bench, who has flashed a little more upside. As for the Bulls’ frontcourt, they draw two difficult matchups against Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas. Lauri Markkanen would be an easy plug and play if he was priced somewhere in the range of $3,500-$5,000, but that’s not the case. It’s so strange to have a team that is playing short-handed with backups thrust into the starting lineup, yet we can’t use them as core plays because they are too expensive.

Toronto Raptors Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jerian Grant (DK & FDRFT), Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

None

The Raptors didn’t exactly lose a big name in the offseason, but they lost four veterans that all contributed last season. Patrick Patterson, P.J. Tucker, DeMarre Carroll, and Cory Joseph are all on different teams, which should hurt the Raptors’ depth. Toronto didn’t bring in much other than C.J. Miles, who is a one-dimensional player that struggles with consistency. Overall, we can expect this team to take a step back, but they should still be a playoff team and they should be in contention for home-court advantage in the first round.

Toronto opens their season as 13-point favorites against the lowly Bulls, who are only projected to win 21 games this season, according to Vegas. This game would have blowout potential if the Bulls were healthy, let alone when we factor in all of their injuries. While that’s usually a small concern in DFS, we can’t really factor in potential blowouts in a three game slate. If we did that, we’d only have one game to choose players from tonight. The Bulls were stout defensively last season, but this is a far cry from a roster that was bolstered by Jimmy Butler.

Jerian Grant and Justin Holiday are both capable defenders (both had positive DRPMs last season), but this is still a good spot for both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. It’s always hard to peg these two, but I generally look at two things when I’m trying to decide between one or the other. The first is positional flexibility. If there are a lot of point guards I like and very few shooting guards, I’d lean toward DeRozan and vice-versa with Lowry. The second is their salaries on each site. The two offer similar floors and ceilings, so it makes sense to target the cheaper of the two if their matchups are similar. There are viable options at both positions tonight, so for me it comes down to price. I’m giving Lowry the slight bump over DeRozan.

Norman Powell could be primed for a breakout season. The Raptors traded away Terrence Ross last year and they let P.J. Tucker and DeMarre Carroll go in the offseason. A $4,700 price tag seems very reasonable for a small forward that should push for 30 minutes with a fairly high usage rate. This is a talented starting lineup, but hopefully head coach Dwane Casey will stagger the minutes so that Powell gets an opportunity to be the go-to player in this offense. If you have ever played Serge Ibaka, then you know he is as inconsistent as they come. He has a massive ceiling (especially on FanDuel), but a low floor, which makes him a better option for tournaments rather than cash games. Jonas Valanciunas might be my favorite tournament play of the entire slate. If you scroll through the player tables of each team, you’ll see that Valanciunas led all players (in this slate) with a FP/min of 1.33. Robin Lopez is a good low-post defender, but he never leaves the rim. When Valanciunas isn’t forced away from the basket, good things tend to happen.

Chicago Bulls Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, Jonas Valanciunas

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka

New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		213.5					Vegas Total		213.5
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		100.8					Implied Team Total		112.8
			Pace Projection +/-		1.8					Pace Projection +/-		-0.1
Projected Starters	Ramon Sessions	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Kristaps Porzingis	Willy Hernangomez		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent DRPM	-0.59	2.47	0.13	-1.49	1.42		Opponent DRPM	-1.47	-1.34	-1.35	1.66	0.53

New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

Joakim Noah (Out)
Kristaps Porzingis (Probable)

The fact that the Knicks are projected to win nine more games than the Bulls this season shows just how bad Chicago might end up being. After many years of indecisiveness, the Knicks are basically forced to hit the rebuild button after losing Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose, and Justin Holiday. They signed Tim Hardaway Jr. to a seemingly bad deal and they traded for Enes Kanter. Two moves that didn’t make a ton of sense, but Knicks’ fans should be used to this by now. The good news is that without Anthony and Rose, Kristaps Porzingis can finally be the focal point of this offense.

The Knicks open up with an extremely difficult matchup. The Thunder were a top ten defense in terms of efficiency last season and they had the best rebounding differential in the NBA. They went out and added an elite wing defender in Paul George and obviously traded for Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks come into the game as 12-point underdogs with an implied total of only 101.5 points. A blowout is certainly possible here, but again, we can’t really factor in potential blowouts in such a small slate.

Ramon Sessions averaged a mere 16 minutes per game last season, yet here he is starting for the Knicks in their first game of the season. They are hoping that Frank Ntilikina (eighth overall pick in the draft) is their point guard for the future, but they will bring him along slowly. He’s expected to play “limited” minutes tonight, so there’s a decent chance that Sessions could play 30 minutes. He’s not the best per-minute producer out there, but 30 minutes from a starting point guard at this price is always intriguing. Andre Roberson is the starting shooting guard for the Thunder, but he’s going to cover the best perimeter player on the opposing team each night. That likely means that he’ll defend Tim Hardaway Jr. here. If that’s the case, bump Hardaway down a notch, especially since his price is up there to begin with.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the matchups shake out. If we assume Roberson is on Hardaway and Westbrook is on Sessions, that leaves us with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to defend Courtney Lee and Kristaps Porzingis. Call me crazy, but I’d expect Porzingis to eat up Anthony in the post. Even if George ends up being on Porzingis, his upside warrants consideration in tournaments. I should note that he’s been dealing with a hip injury, so the Knicks could sit him down early if the game gets out of hand. That should just about do it for the Knicks. Willy Hernangomez is a good player, but I never feel secure about his minutes with Enes Kanter coming off the bench behind him. Assuming those two split minutes, I’d actually rather take a shot on Kanter in a revenge spot. Michael Beasley played well in the preseason (0.92) if you are looking for a sneaky tournament play off the bench.

Oklahoma City Thunder Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.0 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ramon Sessions, Tim Hardaway, Kristaps Porzingis (GPP), Enes Kanter (GPP), Michael Beasley (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

Raymond Felton (Questionable)
Patrick Patterson (Questionable)

The Thunder are a new-look team this season. While they still have three of the same starters from last year, they lost quite a few names that were all a part of the rotation — Taj Gibson, Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Enes Kanter, and Doug McDermott. They were more than happy to let them go though, as it meant bringing in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Say what you want about super teams in the NBA, but I am going to be glued to my seat watching NBA games this season.

The Thunder open their season as 12-point favorites with the highest implied total in the slate (215 points). There is some potential for a blowout here, but it may take time for this team to gel, which could help keep games like this one competitive. Russell Westbrook took on more of a facilitator role in the preseason and only averaged 1.06 FP/min. That’s a far cry from where he was last season. While I expect him to amp it up now that the regular season is here, his usage has to take a hit playing alongside Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. If it doesn’t, there are going to be some major issues between these three. Westbrook is still the top play on the slate from a projection standpoint and I still like his chances to post a triple-double, but he may not have the same upside that he did a year ago.

It will be interesting to see the fantasy production of both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in the first few weeks of play. This is pure speculation on my part, but I’d expect Anthony to take a bit longer to adjust. George is a good rebounder, a good passer, and he fills the stat sheet with blocks and steals. Anthony has mainly been a scorer his entire career and he’s no longer the focal point of the offense that he’s playing in. I know this is a revenge spot and all, but I will be fading Anthony in all formats tonight. George is my preferred option of the two.

Andre Roberson will be the forgotten man in this lineup. Defenses are going to pay so much attention to the big three that Roberson should have a few wide open threes a game. He also brings steal and block upside to the table if you want a sub-5% ownership play for tournaments. Steven Adams was one of the most frustrating plays in DFS last season. He’d play five straight games with minutes in the 30s, I’d finally play him and then Enes Kanter would come in and dominate. With Kanter gone, the backup center is now Nick Collison, who shouldn’t play more than 8-12 minutes a game. I wish Adams was a little cheaper because I had him pegged as a GPP play before I saw his price.

New York Knicks Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Andre Roberson (GPP), Steven Adams (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							Los Angeles Lakers
			Vegas Total		218.5					Vegas Total		218.5
			Vegas Spread		-5.0					Vegas Spread		5.0
			Implied Team Total		111.8					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Pace Projection +/-		2.1					Pace Projection +/-		-0.5
Projected Starters	Patrick Beverley	Austin Rivers	Danilo Gallinari	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Lonzo Ball	Brandon Ingram	Luol Deng	Julius Randle	Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM		-2.88	1.51	-1.04	0.37		Opponent DRPM	1.89	-1.78	0.38	0.41	3.57

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

Patrick Beverley (Questionable)
Danilo Gallinari (Probable)
Sam Dekker (Probable)
Austin Rivers (Probable)

If you weren’t up to date on the NBA rosters and I just showed you this injury report, you would have no idea which team this was. The Clippers have quite a few new faces on the roster this year, including Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker, and Milos Teodosic. With so many acquisitions, they obviously had to cut ties with a lot of players, including Chris Paul, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, J.J. Redick, Marreese Speights, Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford. The names from the acquisitions alone basically took up an entire paragraph.

Even though this is the first time in a long time without superstar point guard, Chris Paul, the Clippers are still a borderline playoff team in the West. Vegas has their win projection at 43.5, which means they’ll likely have to hit the over to make the postseason. They start the year with an excellent matchup against the Lakers, who love to push the pace and refuse to play defense. That could always change, but last year the Lakers were ranked dead last in defensive efficiency. With an implied total of 112.8 points, we can load up on the Clippers.

After reading the breakdowns for the first two games, you were probably wondering if I liked anyone in this slate. I certainly do, most of them just come from this game in particular. Patrick Beverley is questionable for tonight’s contest, but made it through most of practice yesterday. Assuming he’s a go, he makes an intriguing play against rookie Lonzo Ball. Ball security is often a concern with young point guards and we know Beverley is one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball — pretty sure word “ball” is going to get used a lot when talking about the Lakers. Austin Rivers has always struggled with consistency, but he should see a boost in usage this year without Chris Paul. For now, I consider him a GPP flier. Danilo Gallinari was quiet in the preseason (0.77 FP/min), but our options at small forward are limited. On a site like FanDuel where we have to play two of them, Gallinari is firmly in play.

The three plays that I have the most interest in here are Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, and Lou Williams. Beverley isn’t a creator on offense, so I fully expect everything to run through Griffin at the high post. He’s an excellent passer and he can create shots for himself and his teammates. If he can stay healthy, we should expect a monster season from the man that once jumped over a Kia. He’s my cash game lock of the night and I’ll obviously have shares of him in tournaments as well. The Lakers were not a great rebounding team last season and Brook Lopez isn’t going to help the cause. DeAndre Jordan no longer has Chris Paul throwing him lobs, but the rebound and block upside are still massive. And finally, we get to Lou Williams, who gets to face his former team in the season opener. Williams provides instant offense off the bench, which is something the Clippers will desperately need. I have him projected to reach value in around 22 minutes, so anything on top of that would be icing on the cake.

Los Angeles Lakers Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.5 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Lou Williams

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari (FD)

Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Injuries

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out)
Julius Randle (Probable)
Lonzo Ball (Probable)

The Lakers are hoping to take a small step forward this season. Their ultimate goal from here on out is to continue to acquire young talent until turn into a team like the Nuggets or until they can lure in a big free agent. They want to have everything ready so that they are only a big piece or two away from being competitive in the West again. They need to stress patience, but that’s tough to do in this market and with this franchise. Anyway, the big acquisitions for the Lakers were Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Lonzo Ball, and Brook Lopez, while the main losses were D’Angelo Russell and Lou Williams.

The Clippers were a slightly above-average defense last season, but that was in large part thanks to Chris Paul ability to slow down the opposing point guard. Luckily for them, they have an equally talented defender in Patrick Beverley. We could see the Clippers take a hit in terms of pace, but that’s just speculation on my part. Overall, I’d say this is a pretty average matchup for the Lakers. The good news is that they are playing at home and that they will look to push the pace themselves. This should lead to fantasy goodness on both sides of the ball.

Everyone was itching to play Ben Simmons and Dennis Smith Jr. last night and they both came through with big fantasy outings. Tonight everyone is going to clamor to Lonzo Ball. I was on both Simmons and Smith last night, but I’ll be underweight on Ball tonight. The key difference here is the matchup. Assuming he’s active, Patrick Beverley is a shut down defender that will be a headache for the rookie point guard. We’ve seen Beverley get into the heads of the most experienced veterans in the NBA. I’m not saying that Ball can’t play well here, but I’ll be waiting for an easier matchup. I’ll have more shares of Jordan Clarkson, who will likely see more of Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton. With KCP out, Clarkson could play 30+ minutes off the bench, making him a steal at his salary.

The Lakers are hoping Brandon Ingram can take that next step forward. While I’d rather take a wait and see approach, there are basically three viable options at small forward and we have to roster two of them, so by default, Ingram is worth a look. This is going to be a deep rotation and when that happens, fourth quarter minutes aren’t guaranteed for anyone. Julius Randle lost a bunch of weight in the offseason and smashed in the preseason (1.24 FP/min), yet he might not even be the starter. The Lakers really like Larry Nance and what he brings to the table. The two probably won’t play together that often, so it’s hard to predict either one for more than 24-28 minutes a night. For now, I’ll lean on the cheaper option of the two, which happens to be Nance tonight.

Luke Walton said that he’s considering starting Kyle Kuzma while KCP is serving his two-game suspension. If that’s the case, he would become a great play right from the start. He’s a rookie from my alma mater (University of Utah) and he’s been terrific in the preseason, averaging 25 fantasy points per game. Even if he comes off the bench, I expect him to see minutes in the low to mid-20s. The last play to hit on here is Brook Lopez. He’s an interesting fit in this offense. The Lakers have a bunch of talented, athletic players that want to push the pace, while Lopez takes ten seconds to make a move in the post. If he plays 30 minutes, he has plenty of upside. He’s only squared off against DeAndre Jordan once in the last two years, but in that meeting, he dropped a 50 burger (DK scoring).

Los Angeles Clippers Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jordan Clarkson, Brook Lopez (DK), Larry Nance (if starting), Kyle Kuzma (if starting)

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (FD), Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram (FD), Julius Randle