2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Mendoza Is the Frontrunner
With the college football season over, attention shifts to the upcoming NFL Draft. The Las Vegas Raiders currently hold the No. 1 overall selection, with the New York Jets slotted at No. 2. Who will ultimately come off the board first in the 2026 NFL Draft? Here’s the latest outlook.
On top of owning the top pick, the Raiders are also in the market for a new head coach after parting ways with Pete Carroll, and the odds on their next hire are already taking shape.
Below is an updated look at the current favorites and long shots, along with how the betting market is moving as April approaches.
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2026 NFL Draft Number 1 Pick Odds: The Favorites
The Frontrunner: Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza has become the headline name in college football. After guiding Indiana to a historic undefeated season and capturing the Heisman Trophy, he’s now the favorite to be selected No. 1 overall. With the Las Vegas Raiders currently holding the top pick, a potential franchise-changing quarterback like Mendoza makes plenty of sense. He’ll face the second-favorite for the top spot in the upcoming Peach Bowl.
Betting Value: Could a Non-QB Go No. 1?
Quarterbacks almost always come off the board first, but there’s a path for a defender if:
- The Raiders commit to their current quarterbacks, or
- They trade the pick to a team that doesn’t need a passer.
In that scenario, the odds on defensive prospects become intriguing.
- T.J. Parker: Clemson edge rusher who posted 37 total tackles (18 solo) and 5 sacks this season. Despite Clemson’s underwhelming year, there’s some belief he has an outside chance to climb to No. 1.
- Arvell Reese: A true wildcard whose value depends on positional evaluation. He’s lined up at both linebacker and edge for Ohio State, and his elite athletic profile could fuel a major post-combine surge.
Why the Odds Are Moving
The odds for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft hinge as much on team context as on raw talent. Right now, the projected draft order at the bottom looks something like:
- Las Vegas Raiders – clear quarterback need
- New York Jets – likely seeking a new quarterback
- Arizona Cardinals – candidate to trade down
- Tennessee Titans – flexible depending on how the board falls
With quarterback-needy teams in the top spots, markets naturally skew toward QBs. If a team like the Cardinals were to slide into the No. 1 position, Mendoza’s price would likely drift, while defensive prospects could see their odds shorten.
Be sure to check out our guide to the best prediction market apps.
Image Credit: Imagn