MLB Betting Picks Strategy Guide – Updated July 2024

MLB Betting Picks Strategy Guide

Before you jump into the MLB props and futures markets any questions you may have will be answered in the MLB betting picks strategy guide below. Once we establish what a future and proposition are we will focus on how you can find value on individual MLB betting picks, and how these bets are different from a typical moneyline, run line, or over/under bet.

MLB World Series Betting Lines

MLB Betting Picks – What Is An MLB Futures Bet?

As soon as one MLB season concludes, the futures market for the following season is posted by oddsmakers. Bettors are able to place a bet on potential outcomes of the upcoming season. For example, a bettor can place a bet on whichever team they think will win the World Series. Or if they don’t want to wait until the World Series is decided, they could bet on a team to win their league or division instead. Other markets that are offered by various sportsbooks are end of season awards like team win totals, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, Home Run leaders and Most Value Player.

Odds for each team will vary drastically based on the oddsmakers’ opinion of which teams are best positioned for success in that season. Odds can also fluctuate wildly from the time they are posted in November, but once you place a bet you are locked in at that price.

As an example, prior to the 2019 season if you had bet $100 on the Boston Red Sox at +700 (7-to-1) a World Series victory would result in $700 profit. Now, as July approaches and the defending champs have struggled, and are 9 games back of the AL East lead, they are up to +2200 at FanDuel sportsbook. While it would be nice if your bet now had the potential to net you $2200 that is not how futures betting works. In order to win that amount you would have to place a new bet at this point of the season. Many bettors will place bets at various points in the season, even on the same team, to take advantage of what they see as value within the market. If you are interested in the MLB futures market and are looking to make a bet make sure to check back often as this is where we’ll place links to our articles with updated odds and MLB betting picks.

MLB Betting Picks – What Is A Major League Baseball Prop Bet?

A prop bet, short for proposition bet, is a bet on a specific outcome within a game that is not tied to the final score. These bets are offered for individual games, or if you prefer, you can place one that lasts the entire season. In either case the markets available to bettors will focus on a specific stat.

For props that last the duration of the season the most common markets available are wins, saves, strikeouts for pitchers, and hits, RBIs and HRs for hitters. If using projections for single games isn’t your thing, or you feel like there is too much variance in a single game, season long props could be for you.

Over the course of 162 games there is obviously a lot less variance than a single game. It also provides a unique opportunity for bettors that follow teams extremely closely and have a sense for how the season will progress for a player or an entire team. Being knowledgeable about specific opportunities available to individual players is how you can find value with these props.

Maybe you are a fan of a team in rebuild mode and you know their closer is in the final year of his contract. How can you use this information to your advantage? You could start by looking at the team’s win total proposition, and figure out how many of those wins project to have save opportunities. Next, knowing that he’s in his final year you can reasonably assume he has a good chance of getting traded to a contender prior to the trade deadline. If that occurs the save opportunities will likely dry up unless the acquiring team doesn’t have an established closer. These are just examples of factors you should be considering before ultimately deciding on your MLB betting picks.

Here are a couple examples of MLB betting picks in the form of season-long props:

Next up are props for a single game. Using player projections on RotoGrinders you can potentially find an edge for many MLB betting picks. For casual bettors It also provides a fun outlet if you don’t have a stake in the overall outcome of the game, or don’t feel like either side of a particular matchup is good value. Maybe you just love Mike Trout and don’t care at all if the Angels win or lose. Placing a bet on his total bases for the game may be more enticing for you than betting on the outcome of the game.

Here are some example of single-game MLB betting picks you could make:

MLB Betting Picks Strategy – The Importance of Shopping Around

Recently, we launched the updated version of our betting odds comparison tool, which you should always consult before making any MLB betting picks. Line shopping is extremely important if you want to have any type of online sports betting success.

Here you can easily navigate between New Jersey sports betting options to find the best place to make a bet. It is not uncommon for a team to be listed at +4000 at one book and +2500 at another at any point in time. Having accounts on all available sites in your region can make a huge difference in your total winnings at the end of the year.

Check out our betting odds comparison tool and let us know what you think!

MLB Betting Picks – What If I’m Not In a Sports Betting State?

If you aren’t lucky enough to be in New Jersey or another state with numerous online sportsbooks, check out Sleeper. If you are new to Sleeper, use the Sleeper promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a deposit bonus of 100% up to $500.

MLB Betting Picks – Why Bet Futures?

While on any given day you may be able to find bets with 1-3% edges betting on a team in a one game matchup, futures betting gives you an opportunity to find far bigger edges in certain cases. Once you are familiar with using an odds calculator to turn futures market prices into implied probabilities (+2200 is 4.3% for example) you can use that information to determine the total hold percentage. Each book is different and it is always a good idea to shop around.

Betting on futures is a way for you to buy low on a team or player who you believe is undervalued by the market. This can be for any number of reasons, whether it is a new acquisition you are higher on than the market, or a new manager or general manager who you believe will change the fortunes of a particular team. It may even be that another team in the same division has sustained a few key injuries in short succession and you believe that increases the chances of a team you want to bet on.

MLB Odds, Futures and Props Betting Links and Resources

If you want to have a reasonable chance of making money in the futures and props markets you have to use the wealth of information available to you at RotoGrinders to your advantage. Check back often for updates to the betting odds page as well as news on your favorite teams.

Here are some links to other betting resources you might find useful:

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(Top Photo: Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)

About the Author

Brad Marsh (bmarsh) Brad is a poker player, DFSer and sports bettor. He is also a diehard fan of the Green Bay Packers and Toronto Maple Leafs. More than anything else, Brad is a huge proponent of data-driven sports analysis.